山东滨州市冰雹天气分型和预报方法研究
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摘要
利用山东滨州市7个国家气象站与61个人影作业站点观测资料,结合高空观测及探空、ECMWF再分析等资料,对2001—2011年滨州降雹时空分布特征、天气系统和物理量特征、降雹形势分型和预报方法进行研究。得出:(1)降雹日数年均8.6次,总体呈现明显下降的年际变化特征;4—10月可降雹,6—7月降雹最多;降雹主要出现在14时—翌日02时;北部沿海相对较多。(2)降雹形势主要有5种类型:冷涡型降雹、低槽型降雹、横槽型降雹、西北气流型降雹、其他小范围降雹。根据冷涡中心位置冷涡型划分为两个关键区;低槽型可分为前倾槽、阶梯槽、较深低槽、与中低纬度共同作用的槽;横槽型降雹范围广、破坏性大;西北气流型存在连续性。(3)4类13种物理量具有不同分布特征和变异系数,均具有较好的代表性。不同月份、不同降雹影响程度和影响系统,物理量具有较明显差别。(4)0℃层高度在1370～5331 m时,7种物理量可用于预报冰雹,K≥17℃、T_(850-500)≥25℃、LI≤2℃、SRH≥0.1 m~2·s~(-2)、SSI≥240、SWEAT≥100、Cape≥2 J·kg~(-1)时可能降雹。6月、7—8月和其它月分别有3种、1种、3种物理量指标组合可用于预报冰雹,物理量的组合和数值有差异。
Based on the observation data of 7 national meteorological stations and 61 weather modification stations in Binzhou,combining with the upper-air observations and sounding data,and reanalysis data from ECMWF,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics,weather system and physical quantity characteristics,hail situation classification and forecasting methods in Binzhou from 2001 to 2011 were studied. Results show that :(1) The annual average of hail days was 8.6 times,showing a significant decrease in the overall annual variation characteristics. Hail occurs from April to October,and most from June to July,mainly occurs from 14:00 pm. to 2:00 pm. and more occurs on the northern coast.(2)Hail situation can be divided into five types: cold vortex hail,low-trough hail,transverse trough hail,northwest airflow hail and other small-range hail. According to the center position,the cold vortex hail can be divided into two key regions. The low-trough hail can be divided into forward dip trough,ladder trough,deeper trough,and trough acting together with middle and low latitude. Transverse trough hail has wide range and great destruction. Northwest airflow hail has continuity characteristics.(3)There are 13 kinds of physical quantities in 4 categories with different distribution characteristics and variation coefficients,all of which are well representative. The physical quantity of hail is obviously different in different months,different hail influence and different system.(4)When the 0 ℃ level height between 1370～ 5331 m,seven kinds of physical quantities can be used to forecast the hail,and hail may drop when K≥17 ℃、T_(850-500)≥25 ℃、LI≤2 ℃、SRH≥0.1 m~2·s~(-2)、SSI≥240、SWEAT≥100、Cape≥2 J·kg~(-1).In June,July to August and other months,there are 3,1 and 3 combinations of physical quantity indexes that can be used to forecast hail,and there are differences in the combination and value of physical quantitys.
Based on the observation data of 7 national meteorological stations and 61 weather modification stations in Binzhou,combining with the upper-air observations and sounding data,and reanalysis data from ECMWF,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics,weather system and physical quantity characteristics,hail situation classification and forecasting methods in Binzhou from 2001 to 2011 were studied. Results show that :(1) The annual average of hail days was 8.6 times,showing a significant decrease in the overall annual variation characteristics. Hail occurs from April to October,and most from June to July,mainly occurs from 14:00 pm. to 2:00 pm. and more occurs on the northern coast.(2)Hail situation can be divided into five types: cold vortex hail,low-trough hail,transverse trough hail,northwest airflow hail and other small-range hail. According to the center position,the cold vortex hail can be divided into two key regions. The low-trough hail can be divided into forward dip trough,ladder trough,deeper trough,and trough acting together with middle and low latitude. Transverse trough hail has wide range and great destruction. Northwest airflow hail has continuity characteristics.(3)There are 13 kinds of physical quantities in 4 categories with different distribution characteristics and variation coefficients,all of which are well representative. The physical quantity of hail is obviously different in different months,different hail influence and different system.(4)When the 0 ℃ level height between 1370～ 5331 m,seven kinds of physical quantities can be used to forecast the hail,and hail may drop when K≥17 ℃、T_(850-500)≥25 ℃、LI≤2 ℃、SRH≥0.1 m~2·s~(-2)、SSI≥240、SWEAT≥100、Cape≥2 J·kg~(-1).In June,July to August and other months,there are 3,1 and 3 combinations of physical quantity indexes that can be used to forecast hail,and there are differences in the combination and value of physical quantitys.
引文
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[16]丁建芳,杨敏,刘磊.河南省冰雹短期预报方法研究[J/OL].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):47-53.
[17]斯琴,王佳津,荀学义.基于T639对流参数的内蒙古强对流天气潜势预报方法初探[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):906-911.
[18]刘晓璐,刘建西,张世林,等.基于探空资料因子组合分析方法的冰雹预报[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(2):168-175.
[19]樊明月,张佃国,龚佃利,等.山东冰雹形成机制及雹云催化技术模拟一个例研究[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(1):107-120.
[20]高晓梅,孙雪峰,秦瑜蓬,等.山东一次强对流天气的环境条件和对流风暴特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(3):447-455.
[21]王庆.从山东冰雹灾情变化看人工防雹作业效果[J].气象,2013,33(4):28-30.
[22]柳林,贺业坤,杨晓霞,等.山东冰雹逐点判别客观预报方法[J].山东气象,2001(1):8-10.
[23]朱晓冬,朱官忠.用人工神经元网络预报鲁西北雷雨冰雹天气[J].气象,1993,19(4):20-30.
[24]张礼宝,张杰,闫中帅.利用物理量场做冰雹潜势预报[J].黑龙江气象,2007(3):13-14.
[25]张云惠,谭艳梅,于碧馨,等.中亚低涡背景下南疆西部两次强冰雹环境场对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):10-16.
[26]马鸿青,于雷,司丽丽,等.保定地区冰雹的气候及物理量参数特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(4):616-628.
[27]仇娟娟,何立富.苏沪浙地区短时强降水与冰雹天气分布及物理量特征对比分析[J].气象,2013,39(5):577-584.
[28]王立荣,王丽荣,匡顺四,等.对流参数气候特征在短期预报中的应用[J].气象与环境学报,2008,24(5):38-41.
[29]濮文耀,李红斌,宋煜,等.0℃层高度的变化对冰雹融化影响的分析和应用[J].气象,2015,41(8):980-985.
[30]俞小鼎.关于冰雹的融化层高度[J].气象,2014,40(6):649-654.
[31]苏永玲,马秀梅,马元仓,等.高空冷涡和副高背景下青海冰雹特征对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(4):22-29.
[2]Changnon S A,Changnon D.Long-term fluctuations in hail incidences in the United States[J].Climate,2000,13(3):658-664.
[3]Punge H,Kunz M.Hail observations and hailstorm characteristics in Europe:A review[J].Atmospheric Research,2016,176-177:159-184.
[4]Javad Bodagh Jamli.Physical analysis of hail fall risk in Iran and the consequent damages on agricultural crops[J].Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,2014,4(5):919-930.
[5]郑媛媛,姚晨,郝莹,等.不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时临近预报预警研究[J].气象,2011,37(7):795-801.
[6]觬uri觬M,Janc D.Differential heating influence on hailstorm vortex pair evolution[J].Meteorol Soc,2012,138(662):72-80.
[7]Chevuturi A,Dimri A P,Gunturu U B.Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi,India on 17 January 2013[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Science,2014,14(12):3331-3344.
[8]Punge H J,Bedka K M,Kunz M,et al.Hail frequency estimation across Europe based on a combination of overshooting top detections and the ERA-INTERIMreanalysis[J].Atmospheric Research,2017,198:34-43.
[9]张芳华,高辉.中国冰雹日数的时空分布特征[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(5):687-693.
[10]闵晶晶,曹晓钟,段宇辉,等.近30年京津冀地区冰雹的气候特征和突变分析[J].气象,2012,38(2):189-196.
[11]符琳,李维京,张培群,等.近50年我国冰雹年代际变化及北方冰雹趋势的成因分析[J].气象,2011,37(6):669-676.
[12]曹立新,刘新强,张磊,等.1998-2008年阿克苏地区冰雹的时空分布特征及防御对策[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2009,3(2):21-24.
[13]黄武斌,王研峰,黄玉霞,等.1974-2013年甘肃省冰雹气候时空变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(1):103-107.
[14]李晓鹤,蒲金涌,袁佰顺,等.甘肃省天水市近40a冰雹分布特征[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):113-116.
[15]农孟松,祁丽燕,黄明策,等.基于环流分型的广西冰雹潜势预报研究[J].气象,2008,34(6):46-52.
[16]丁建芳,杨敏,刘磊.河南省冰雹短期预报方法研究[J/OL].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):47-53.
[17]斯琴,王佳津,荀学义.基于T639对流参数的内蒙古强对流天气潜势预报方法初探[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):906-911.
[18]刘晓璐,刘建西,张世林,等.基于探空资料因子组合分析方法的冰雹预报[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(2):168-175.
[19]樊明月,张佃国,龚佃利,等.山东冰雹形成机制及雹云催化技术模拟一个例研究[J].大气科学学报,2013,36(1):107-120.
[20]高晓梅,孙雪峰,秦瑜蓬,等.山东一次强对流天气的环境条件和对流风暴特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(3):447-455.
[21]王庆.从山东冰雹灾情变化看人工防雹作业效果[J].气象,2013,33(4):28-30.
[22]柳林,贺业坤,杨晓霞,等.山东冰雹逐点判别客观预报方法[J].山东气象,2001(1):8-10.
[23]朱晓冬,朱官忠.用人工神经元网络预报鲁西北雷雨冰雹天气[J].气象,1993,19(4):20-30.
[24]张礼宝,张杰,闫中帅.利用物理量场做冰雹潜势预报[J].黑龙江气象,2007(3):13-14.
[25]张云惠,谭艳梅,于碧馨,等.中亚低涡背景下南疆西部两次强冰雹环境场对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):10-16.
[26]马鸿青,于雷,司丽丽,等.保定地区冰雹的气候及物理量参数特征[J].干旱气象,2014,32(4):616-628.
[27]仇娟娟,何立富.苏沪浙地区短时强降水与冰雹天气分布及物理量特征对比分析[J].气象,2013,39(5):577-584.
[28]王立荣,王丽荣,匡顺四,等.对流参数气候特征在短期预报中的应用[J].气象与环境学报,2008,24(5):38-41.
[29]濮文耀,李红斌,宋煜,等.0℃层高度的变化对冰雹融化影响的分析和应用[J].气象,2015,41(8):980-985.
[30]俞小鼎.关于冰雹的融化层高度[J].气象,2014,40(6):649-654.
[31]苏永玲,马秀梅,马元仓,等.高空冷涡和副高背景下青海冰雹特征对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(4):22-29.