中国的能源回弹效应及其对实现“十三五”节能目标的影响
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摘要
通过构建中国能源经济递推动态CGE模型,分别模拟了改善我国整体经济能效?单独提升不同品种能源利用效率以及仅提升高耗能行业能效的回弹效应,同时模拟了2012~2020年我国能源回弹效应的变化趋势及对我国实现"十三五"节能目标的影响.结果显示:我国存在能源回弹效应,整体经济的能源回弹效应在36%左右;全社会整体能效的提升更有利于我国节能,能效改善有利于我国减少煤炭使用但可能导致部分行业电力消耗的反弹;2012~2020年我国的能源回弹效应呈缓慢上升趋势,如果不配套相关措施我国"十三五"能效改善目标的实现将面临挑战.
A recursive dynamic CGE model for Chinese energy-economic analysis was developed in this paper. Based on the model, the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of the whole economy was firstly simulated, then the rebound effect of only one kind of energy efficiency improvement with coal, oil, natural gas and electric power were simulated respectively, and then the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of energy-intensive industries was simulated. In the end, the variation tendency of energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 and its impacts on achieving the energy conservation target in the 13~(th) Five~Year Plan were simulated. It was indicated by the results that energy rebound effect did exist in China and it was about 36% for the whole economy. Increasing energy efficiency of the whole economy was better for energy conservation of China, and the energy efficiency improvement was good for decrease of coal consumption, but increase of electric power utilization of some industries would be resulted. Slow upward tendency for energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 was showed, and challenges would be faced to achieve the energy conservation target in the 13~(th) Five-Year Plan if no supporting measures had been adopted in the meanwhile.
A recursive dynamic CGE model for Chinese energy-economic analysis was developed in this paper. Based on the model, the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of the whole economy was firstly simulated, then the rebound effect of only one kind of energy efficiency improvement with coal, oil, natural gas and electric power were simulated respectively, and then the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement of energy-intensive industries was simulated. In the end, the variation tendency of energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 and its impacts on achieving the energy conservation target in the 13~(th) Five~Year Plan were simulated. It was indicated by the results that energy rebound effect did exist in China and it was about 36% for the whole economy. Increasing energy efficiency of the whole economy was better for energy conservation of China, and the energy efficiency improvement was good for decrease of coal consumption, but increase of electric power utilization of some industries would be resulted. Slow upward tendency for energy rebound effect of China in 2012~2020 was showed, and challenges would be faced to achieve the energy conservation target in the 13~(th) Five-Year Plan if no supporting measures had been adopted in the meanwhile.
引文
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[15]Lin B,Zhao H.Technological progress and energy rebound effect in China s textile industry:Evidence and policy implications[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,60:173-181.
[16]Lin B,Chen Y,Zhang G.Technological progress and rebound effect in China's nonferrous metals industry:An empirical study[J].Energy Policy,2017,109:520-529.
[17]Lin B,Li J.The rebound effect for heavy industry:Empirical evidence from China[J].Energy Policy,2014,74:589-599.
[18]胡秋阳.回弹效应与能源效率政策的重点产业选择[J].经济研究,2014,(2):128-140.
[19]李元龙,陆文聪.生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):44-49.
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[21]Zhang Z X.The Economics of Energy Policy in China[M].Edward Elgar,Northhampton,MA,1998.
[22]Haas R,Biermayr P.The rebound effect for space heating Empirical evidence from Austria[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(6):403-410.
[23]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.我国省际物质资本存量估算:1952~2000[J].经济研究,2004,10:35-44.
[24]Bao Q,Tang L,Zhang Z X,et al.Impacts of border carbon adjustments on China's sectoral emissions:Simulations with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model.[J].China Economic Review,2013,24(1):77-94.
[25]贺菊煌,沈可挺,徐嵩龄.碳税与二氧化碳减排的CGE模型[J].数量经济与技术经济,2002,(10):39-47.
[26]Zhai F,Hertel T W.Impacts of the DDA on China:the role of labor markets and complementary education reforms[R].Poverty and the WTO:Impact of the Doha Development Agenda,Washington DC:World Bank,2006:285-318.
[2]Saunders H D.Does predicted rebound depend on distinguishing between energy and energy services?[J].Energy Policy,2007,28(6):497-500.
[3]Khazzoom,daniel J.Economic implications for mandated efficiency in standards for household appliances[J].The Energy Journal,1980,1(4):21-40.
[4]Brookes L.The greenhouse effect:the fallacies in the energy efficient solution[J]."Energy Policy,1990,18(2):199-201.
[5]Saunders,Harry.The Khazzom-Brookes Postulate and Neoclassical Growth.[J].Energy Journal,1992,13(4):131-148.
[6]Haas R,Biermayr P.The impact of consumer behavior on residential energy demand for space heating[J].Energy and Buildings,1998,27:195-205.
[7]Saunders H D.A view from the macro side:rebound,backfire,and Khazzoom–Brookes[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(6):439-449.
[8]Greening A L,Greene D L,Difiglio C.Energy efficiency and consumption-the rebound effect-a survey[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(6):389-401.
[9]刘源远,刘凤朝.基于技术进步的中国能源消费反弹效应——使用省际面板数据的实证检验[J].资源科学,2008,30(9):1300-1306.
[10]冯峰,叶阿忠.技术溢出视角下技术进步对能源消费的回弹效应研究——基于空间面板数据模型[J].财经研究,2012,38(9):123-133.
[11]张栩,张格.基于技术进步的不同产业能源回弹效应研究——以产业面板数据的实证分析[J].当代经济,2016,(34):107-109.
[12]Lu Y,Liu Y,Zhou M.Rebound effect of improved energy efficiency for different energy types:A general equilibrium analysis for China[J].Energy Economics,2017,62:248-256.
[13]Li H,Bao Q,Ren X,et al.Reducing rebound effect through fossil subsidies reform:A comprehensive evaluation in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,141:305-314.
[14]查冬兰.基于CGE模型的中国能源效率回弹效应研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(12):39-66.
[15]Lin B,Zhao H.Technological progress and energy rebound effect in China s textile industry:Evidence and policy implications[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,60:173-181.
[16]Lin B,Chen Y,Zhang G.Technological progress and rebound effect in China's nonferrous metals industry:An empirical study[J].Energy Policy,2017,109:520-529.
[17]Lin B,Li J.The rebound effect for heavy industry:Empirical evidence from China[J].Energy Policy,2014,74:589-599.
[18]胡秋阳.回弹效应与能源效率政策的重点产业选择[J].经济研究,2014,(2):128-140.
[19]李元龙,陆文聪.生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):44-49.
[20]张江山,张旭昆.技术进步?能源效率与回弹效应——来自中国省级面板数据的经验测算[J].山西财经大学学报,2014,36(11):50-59.
[21]Zhang Z X.The Economics of Energy Policy in China[M].Edward Elgar,Northhampton,MA,1998.
[22]Haas R,Biermayr P.The rebound effect for space heating Empirical evidence from Austria[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(6):403-410.
[23]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.我国省际物质资本存量估算:1952~2000[J].经济研究,2004,10:35-44.
[24]Bao Q,Tang L,Zhang Z X,et al.Impacts of border carbon adjustments on China's sectoral emissions:Simulations with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model.[J].China Economic Review,2013,24(1):77-94.
[25]贺菊煌,沈可挺,徐嵩龄.碳税与二氧化碳减排的CGE模型[J].数量经济与技术经济,2002,(10):39-47.
[26]Zhai F,Hertel T W.Impacts of the DDA on China:the role of labor markets and complementary education reforms[R].Poverty and the WTO:Impact of the Doha Development Agenda,Washington DC:World Bank,2006:285-318.