基于决策树的输电线路覆冰故障诊断分析
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摘要
输电线路作为电网薄弱环节之一,其安全稳定运行直接关系到电网的运行状态。目前,覆冰已成为威胁线路安全运行的重要因素。为了提高覆冰故障分析效率,研究其故障诊断模型显得愈发重要。文中通过某网省公司近5年输电线路覆冰跳闸数据,分析其发生规律,结合气象及微地形条件对覆冰故障的影响,构建基于决策树的线路覆冰故障诊断模型,梳理关键诊断变量因子及权重系数,提出疑似故障概率计算方法。最后结合诊断模型,对实际运行故障案例进行分析和计算,通过人工干预及现场排查确认覆冰故障类型,为输电线路故障诊断和故障排查奠定了良好的基础。
Transmission line as one of the weak links,its safe and stable operation is directly related to the operationof the grid state. Icing is an important factor which poses a threat to the safe operation of transmission lines. To en-hance the icing fault analysis efficiency,icing fault diagnosis model becomes more and more important. In this pa-per,the data of icing tripping of transmission lines in the past five years are analyzed. Based on the influence of mete-orological and micro terrain conditions,a fault diagnosis model of icing fault is constructed,which is based on deci-sion tree. Combing the key diagnostic variable factors and weight coefficients,the calculation method of suspectedfailure probability is proposed. Finally,combining with the diagnosis model,the paper analyzes and calculates theactual running fault cases,and confirms the types of ice faults through manual intervention and on-site investigation,thus laying a good foundation for fault diagnosis and trouble shooting of transmission lines.
Transmission line as one of the weak links,its safe and stable operation is directly related to the operationof the grid state. Icing is an important factor which poses a threat to the safe operation of transmission lines. To en-hance the icing fault analysis efficiency,icing fault diagnosis model becomes more and more important. In this pa-per,the data of icing tripping of transmission lines in the past five years are analyzed. Based on the influence of mete-orological and micro terrain conditions,a fault diagnosis model of icing fault is constructed,which is based on deci-sion tree. Combing the key diagnostic variable factors and weight coefficients,the calculation method of suspectedfailure probability is proposed. Finally,combining with the diagnosis model,the paper analyzes and calculates theactual running fault cases,and confirms the types of ice faults through manual intervention and on-site investigation,thus laying a good foundation for fault diagnosis and trouble shooting of transmission lines.
引文
[1]王敩青,戴栋,郝艳捧,等.基于在线监测系统的输电线路覆冰数据统计与分析[J].高电压技术,2012,38(11):3000-3007.WANG Xiaoqing,DAI Dong,HAO Yanpeng,et al. Statistics and analysis of transmission lines icing data based on online monitoring system[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(11):3000-3007.
[2]蒋兴良,舒立春,孙才新.电力系统污秽与覆冰绝缘[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2009.JIANG Xingliang,SHU Lichun,SUN Caixin. Contamination and icing insulation of power system[M]. Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2009.
[3]林韩.电网防灾减灾应急管理系统建设与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2009:39-50.LIN Han. The construction and application of grid disaster emergency management system[M]. Beijing:National Defense University Press,2009:39-50.
[4]蒋兴良,马俊,王少华,等.输电线路冰害事故及原因分析[J].中国电力,2005,38(11):27-30.JIANG Xingliang,MA Jun,WANG Shaohua,et al. Transmission lines’ice accidents and analysis of the formative factors[J]. Electric Power,2005,38(11):27-30.
[5]陆佳政,张红先,彭继文,等.基于极值Ⅰ型概率分布模型的湖南地区电网覆冰重现期计算[J].高电压技术,2012,38(2):464-468.LU Jiazheng,ZHANG Hongxian,PENG Jiwen,et al. Calculation of Hunan power grid icing recurrence interval based on extreme-value type I probability distribution model[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(2):464-468.
[6]曹永兴,张昌华,黄琦,等.输电线路覆冰在线监测及预警技术的国内外研究现状[J].华东电力,2011(1):96-99.CAO Yongxing,ZHANG Changhua,HUANG Qi,et al. Research status of on-line ice coating monitoring&forewarning technology of overhead transmission lines in China and abroad[J]. East China Electric Power,2011(1):96-99.
[7]刘泽洪.直流输电线路覆冰与防治[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2012:9-44.LIU Zehong. Icing and prevention of DC transmission line[M]. Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2012:9-44.
[8]巢亚锋,黄福勇,蒋兴良,等. 500 kV输电线路绝缘子融冰闪络事故分析及应对措施研究[J].高压电器,2013,49(7):60-65.CHAO Yafeng,HUANG Fuyong,JIANG Xingliang,et al.Analysis and countermeasures of ice-melting flashover for ice-covered insulator strings of 500 kV transmission line[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2013,49(7):60-65.
[9] HITOSHI O. Recent progress and future perspective on condition monitoring and diagnostic techniques for power equipment in Japan[C]//2008 International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis,Recent Progress and Future Perspective on Condition Monitoring and Diagnostic Techniques for Power Equipment in Japan. Beijing,China:Inst.of Elec. and Elec. Eng. Computer Society,2008:13-18.
[10]徐青松,劳建明,侯炜,等.输电线路非均匀覆冰的实时监测和计算模型[J].高电压技术,2009,35(11):2865-2869.XU Qingsong,LAO Jianming,HOU Wei,et al. Real-time monitoring and calculation model of transmission lines unequal ice-coating[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2009,35,35(11):2865-2869.
[11]朱晔,王海涛,吴念,等.输电线路覆冰在线监测动态预警模型[J].高电压技术,2014,40(5):1374-1381.ZHU Ye,WANG Haitao,WU Nian,et al. Icing on-line monitoring dynamic prediction model[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(5):1374-1381.
[12]王黎明,李海东,梅红伟,等.输电线路覆冰在线监测系统国内外研究综述[J].高压电器,2013,49(6):48-56.WANG Liming,LI Haidong,MEI Hongwei,et al. Review of on-line monitoring system of ice coating on transmission lines[J]. High Voltage Apparatus,2013,49(6):48-56.
[13]韩富春,周林伟,贾雷亮,等.基于灰色关联度的架空线路运行状态的评价[J].高电压技术,2009,35(2):399-402.HAN Fuchun,ZHOU Linwei,JIA Leiliang,et al. Evaluation of overhead transmission lines operation based on grey relation correlation[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2009,35(2):399-402.
[14]戴栋,黄筱婷,代州,等.基于支持向量机的输电线路覆冰回归模型[J].高电压技术,2013,39(11):2822-2828.DAI Dong,HUANG Xiaoting,DAI Zhou,et al. Regression model for transmission lines icing based on support vector machine[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(11):2822-2828.
[15]李晓明,周冬旭,江建飞,等.输电线覆冰自动防御系统建模及其对电网的影响分析[J].高电压技术,2013,39(3):698-704.LI Xiaoming,ZHOU Dongxu,JIANG Jianfei,et al. Modeling for de-icing automatic defense system of transmission lines and analysis of influence on power grid[J]. High Volt-age Engineering,2013,39(3):698-704.
[16]朱功辉,孙浩,曲毅.输电线路覆冰预警一体化应用平台研究[J].南方电网技术,2009,3(5):69-72.ZHUGonghui,SUNHao,QUYi.Studyontheintegrative icingalarm application platform for power transmission lines[J].Southern Power System Technology,2009,3(5):69-72.
[17]夏辉军.输电线路防冰减灾技术研究及覆冰在线监测系统设计与实现[D].成都:电子科技大学,2011.XIA Huijun. Transmission line icing mitigation technology research and online monitoring system design and implementation[D]. Chengdu:Xidian University,2011.
[18]阳林,郝艳捧,李立浧,等.架空输电线路覆冰状态评估模糊专家系统[J].高电压技术,2011,37(12):3028-3035.YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng,LI Licheng,et al. Fuzzy expert system for condition assessment of overhead transmission line icing[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2011,37(12):3028-3035.
[19]彭向阳,钱冠军,李鑫,等.架空输电线路跳闸故障智能诊断[J].高电压技术,2012,38(8):1965-1972.PENG Xiangyang,QIAN Guanjun,LI Xin,et al. Intelligent trip-out fault diagnosis of overhead transmission line[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(8):1965-1972.
[20]欧阳丽莎,黄新波,李俊峰,等. 1 000 kV特高压输电线路覆冰区的研究与划分[J].高压电器,2010,46(5):4-8.OUYANG Lisha,HUANG Xinbo,LI Junfeng,et al. Research and division of icing area along 1 000 kV ultra high voltage AC transmission lines[J]. High Voltage Apparatus,2010,46(5):4-8.
[21]史尊伟,阳林,李昊.基于改进Canny算子的覆冰厚度测量方法[J].电瓷避雷器,2013(6):24-29.SHI Zunwei,YANG Lin,LI Hao. Icing thickness measuring based on improved Canny operator[J]. Insulators and Surge Arresters,2013(6):24-29.
[22]李亚伟,张星海,杨晓磊,等.四川西部电网覆冰特征及影响因素分析[J].电瓷避雷器,2016(3):167-172.LI Yawei,ZHANG Xinghai,YANG Xiaolei,et al. Analysis of characteristics and influence factors of network icing in the Sichuan mountains[J]. Insulators and Surge Arresters,2016(3):167-172.
[2]蒋兴良,舒立春,孙才新.电力系统污秽与覆冰绝缘[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2009.JIANG Xingliang,SHU Lichun,SUN Caixin. Contamination and icing insulation of power system[M]. Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2009.
[3]林韩.电网防灾减灾应急管理系统建设与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2009:39-50.LIN Han. The construction and application of grid disaster emergency management system[M]. Beijing:National Defense University Press,2009:39-50.
[4]蒋兴良,马俊,王少华,等.输电线路冰害事故及原因分析[J].中国电力,2005,38(11):27-30.JIANG Xingliang,MA Jun,WANG Shaohua,et al. Transmission lines’ice accidents and analysis of the formative factors[J]. Electric Power,2005,38(11):27-30.
[5]陆佳政,张红先,彭继文,等.基于极值Ⅰ型概率分布模型的湖南地区电网覆冰重现期计算[J].高电压技术,2012,38(2):464-468.LU Jiazheng,ZHANG Hongxian,PENG Jiwen,et al. Calculation of Hunan power grid icing recurrence interval based on extreme-value type I probability distribution model[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(2):464-468.
[6]曹永兴,张昌华,黄琦,等.输电线路覆冰在线监测及预警技术的国内外研究现状[J].华东电力,2011(1):96-99.CAO Yongxing,ZHANG Changhua,HUANG Qi,et al. Research status of on-line ice coating monitoring&forewarning technology of overhead transmission lines in China and abroad[J]. East China Electric Power,2011(1):96-99.
[7]刘泽洪.直流输电线路覆冰与防治[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2012:9-44.LIU Zehong. Icing and prevention of DC transmission line[M]. Beijing:China Electric Power Press,2012:9-44.
[8]巢亚锋,黄福勇,蒋兴良,等. 500 kV输电线路绝缘子融冰闪络事故分析及应对措施研究[J].高压电器,2013,49(7):60-65.CHAO Yafeng,HUANG Fuyong,JIANG Xingliang,et al.Analysis and countermeasures of ice-melting flashover for ice-covered insulator strings of 500 kV transmission line[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2013,49(7):60-65.
[9] HITOSHI O. Recent progress and future perspective on condition monitoring and diagnostic techniques for power equipment in Japan[C]//2008 International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis,Recent Progress and Future Perspective on Condition Monitoring and Diagnostic Techniques for Power Equipment in Japan. Beijing,China:Inst.of Elec. and Elec. Eng. Computer Society,2008:13-18.
[10]徐青松,劳建明,侯炜,等.输电线路非均匀覆冰的实时监测和计算模型[J].高电压技术,2009,35(11):2865-2869.XU Qingsong,LAO Jianming,HOU Wei,et al. Real-time monitoring and calculation model of transmission lines unequal ice-coating[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2009,35,35(11):2865-2869.
[11]朱晔,王海涛,吴念,等.输电线路覆冰在线监测动态预警模型[J].高电压技术,2014,40(5):1374-1381.ZHU Ye,WANG Haitao,WU Nian,et al. Icing on-line monitoring dynamic prediction model[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(5):1374-1381.
[12]王黎明,李海东,梅红伟,等.输电线路覆冰在线监测系统国内外研究综述[J].高压电器,2013,49(6):48-56.WANG Liming,LI Haidong,MEI Hongwei,et al. Review of on-line monitoring system of ice coating on transmission lines[J]. High Voltage Apparatus,2013,49(6):48-56.
[13]韩富春,周林伟,贾雷亮,等.基于灰色关联度的架空线路运行状态的评价[J].高电压技术,2009,35(2):399-402.HAN Fuchun,ZHOU Linwei,JIA Leiliang,et al. Evaluation of overhead transmission lines operation based on grey relation correlation[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2009,35(2):399-402.
[14]戴栋,黄筱婷,代州,等.基于支持向量机的输电线路覆冰回归模型[J].高电压技术,2013,39(11):2822-2828.DAI Dong,HUANG Xiaoting,DAI Zhou,et al. Regression model for transmission lines icing based on support vector machine[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(11):2822-2828.
[15]李晓明,周冬旭,江建飞,等.输电线覆冰自动防御系统建模及其对电网的影响分析[J].高电压技术,2013,39(3):698-704.LI Xiaoming,ZHOU Dongxu,JIANG Jianfei,et al. Modeling for de-icing automatic defense system of transmission lines and analysis of influence on power grid[J]. High Volt-age Engineering,2013,39(3):698-704.
[16]朱功辉,孙浩,曲毅.输电线路覆冰预警一体化应用平台研究[J].南方电网技术,2009,3(5):69-72.ZHUGonghui,SUNHao,QUYi.Studyontheintegrative icingalarm application platform for power transmission lines[J].Southern Power System Technology,2009,3(5):69-72.
[17]夏辉军.输电线路防冰减灾技术研究及覆冰在线监测系统设计与实现[D].成都:电子科技大学,2011.XIA Huijun. Transmission line icing mitigation technology research and online monitoring system design and implementation[D]. Chengdu:Xidian University,2011.
[18]阳林,郝艳捧,李立浧,等.架空输电线路覆冰状态评估模糊专家系统[J].高电压技术,2011,37(12):3028-3035.YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng,LI Licheng,et al. Fuzzy expert system for condition assessment of overhead transmission line icing[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2011,37(12):3028-3035.
[19]彭向阳,钱冠军,李鑫,等.架空输电线路跳闸故障智能诊断[J].高电压技术,2012,38(8):1965-1972.PENG Xiangyang,QIAN Guanjun,LI Xin,et al. Intelligent trip-out fault diagnosis of overhead transmission line[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(8):1965-1972.
[20]欧阳丽莎,黄新波,李俊峰,等. 1 000 kV特高压输电线路覆冰区的研究与划分[J].高压电器,2010,46(5):4-8.OUYANG Lisha,HUANG Xinbo,LI Junfeng,et al. Research and division of icing area along 1 000 kV ultra high voltage AC transmission lines[J]. High Voltage Apparatus,2010,46(5):4-8.
[21]史尊伟,阳林,李昊.基于改进Canny算子的覆冰厚度测量方法[J].电瓷避雷器,2013(6):24-29.SHI Zunwei,YANG Lin,LI Hao. Icing thickness measuring based on improved Canny operator[J]. Insulators and Surge Arresters,2013(6):24-29.
[22]李亚伟,张星海,杨晓磊,等.四川西部电网覆冰特征及影响因素分析[J].电瓷避雷器,2016(3):167-172.LI Yawei,ZHANG Xinghai,YANG Xiaolei,et al. Analysis of characteristics and influence factors of network icing in the Sichuan mountains[J]. Insulators and Surge Arresters,2016(3):167-172.