2019年4月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估
|
摘要
目的评估2019年4月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计4月突发公共卫生事件的报告数继续上升,可能以水痘、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、风疹等学校传染病暴发常见。手足口病在我国大部分省份尤其南部和东部省份报告病例数将持续上升,需关注肠道病毒优势血清型的转变、基因变异及新病原的出现导致病例增加以及重症和死亡增多的可能。百日咳报告病例数也将保持上升趋势,需继续做好疫苗接种和病例诊治。当前高考、中考体检期间是发现学校肺结核聚集性疫情高峰时间,需关注学校聚集性疫情及其发生后各项防控措施的协同落实。危险化学品事故导致群体中毒风险常在,需关注日常中毒救治能力的建设,并确保事件发生后的正确救治。刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情仍将持续发生,但输入我国的风险仍然为低。结论 2019年4月我国大陆地区无特别关注和重点关注突发公共卫生事件风险;需要一般关注手足口病、百日咳、学校肺结核、危险化学品事故后急性中毒的公共卫生风险,以及刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情的输入风险。
Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in April 2019. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this meeting through video terminal. Results It is expected that the incidence of public health emergencies in April 2019 would continue to increase,which might be mainly the outbreaks of communicable diseases in schools, such as varicella, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD) and rubella. The number of reported cases of HFMD in most provinces of China, especially in southern and eastern provinces, would continue to increase; and attention should be paid to the change of predominant serotype, gene variation and emergence of new strains of enteroviruses, which would result in the increase in cases, including both severe cases and deaths. The number of reported cases of pertussis might also keep rising; and it is still necessary to strengthen the vaccination and case diagnosis or treatment. It is the time for entrance physical examination of colleges and senior high schools, more tuberculosis case clusters might be found in schools; the prevention and control measures should be implemented jointly after epidemic occurs. Hazardous chemical accident often lead to mass poisoning risk; and it is necessary to strengthen the capacity building of the response to poisoning events for the appropriate treatment. The epidemic of Ebola virus disease(EVD) in the Democratic Republic of Congo will continue, but the risk of spread to China is still low. Conclusion In April2019, there are no special concern and major concern of public health emergency risk in the mainland of China; but general attention should be paid to the public health risk of HFMD, pertussis, tuberculosis in schools and acute hazardous chemical poisoning events, as well as the risk of EVD spread to China from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in April 2019. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this meeting through video terminal. Results It is expected that the incidence of public health emergencies in April 2019 would continue to increase,which might be mainly the outbreaks of communicable diseases in schools, such as varicella, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD) and rubella. The number of reported cases of HFMD in most provinces of China, especially in southern and eastern provinces, would continue to increase; and attention should be paid to the change of predominant serotype, gene variation and emergence of new strains of enteroviruses, which would result in the increase in cases, including both severe cases and deaths. The number of reported cases of pertussis might also keep rising; and it is still necessary to strengthen the vaccination and case diagnosis or treatment. It is the time for entrance physical examination of colleges and senior high schools, more tuberculosis case clusters might be found in schools; the prevention and control measures should be implemented jointly after epidemic occurs. Hazardous chemical accident often lead to mass poisoning risk; and it is necessary to strengthen the capacity building of the response to poisoning events for the appropriate treatment. The epidemic of Ebola virus disease(EVD) in the Democratic Republic of Congo will continue, but the risk of spread to China is still low. Conclusion In April2019, there are no special concern and major concern of public health emergency risk in the mainland of China; but general attention should be paid to the public health risk of HFMD, pertussis, tuberculosis in schools and acute hazardous chemical poisoning events, as well as the risk of EVD spread to China from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
引文
[1]涂文校,周蕾,王锐,等.2013年6月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J].疾病监测,2013,28(6):424-428.DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.6.003.Tu WX,Zhou L,Wang R,et al.Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China,June2013[J].Dis Surveill,2013,28(6):424-428.DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2013.6.003.
[2]涂文校,祝菲,李超,等.2018年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J].疾病监测,2018,33(1):3-6.DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.01.003.Tu WX,Zhu F,Li C,et al.Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China,January 2018[J].Dis Surveill,2018,33(1):3-6.DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.01.003.
[3]Yeung KHT,Duclos P,Anthony E,et al.An update of the global burden of pertussis in children younger than 5 years:a modelling study external[J].Lancet,2017,17(9):974-980.DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30390-0.
[2]涂文校,祝菲,李超,等.2018年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J].疾病监测,2018,33(1):3-6.DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.01.003.Tu WX,Zhu F,Li C,et al.Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China,January 2018[J].Dis Surveill,2018,33(1):3-6.DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.01.003.
[3]Yeung KHT,Duclos P,Anthony E,et al.An update of the global burden of pertussis in children younger than 5 years:a modelling study external[J].Lancet,2017,17(9):974-980.DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30390-0.