贵州玉舍冬季滑雪气象指数等级制订
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摘要
运用1988～2017年贵州省玉舍滑雪场附近30年气候资料和2015～2016年冬季滑雪场客流量资料,分析贵州高海拔地区滑雪运动与气象条件的关系,进而进行滑雪气象指数等级研究。结果表明:(1)玉舍滑雪场冬季具有少雨、低风、温度适宜的气候特点,可以开展滑雪运动。(2)玉舍的滑雪人数与气象因子风速、气温、相对湿度、降水量呈显著反相关。(3)根据玉舍滑雪场气候背景特征,分别对降水量、相对湿度、舒适度指数三个气象要素进行分级,通过实际滑雪人数分级与滑雪气象指数等级预报进行的检验表明:实际滑雪气象指数等级与指数预报等级相同(即绝对值之差为0)的准确率达26.4%,实际滑雪气象指数等级与指数预报等级绝对值之差为1的准确率达66.7%,即预报滑雪气象指数等级与实际滑雪气象指数等级之差≥1的准确率达93%。
In this paper, based on the climatic data of 30 years near Yushe ski resort in Guizhou Province from 1988 to 2017, the passenger flow data of winter ski resort from 2015 to 2016. Analysis of the Relation between Skiing and Meteorological Conditions in High Altitude Areas of Guizhou Province. Then the skiing meteorological index is classified. The results show that:(1) Yushe Skiing Ground has the characteristics of less rain, low wind and suitable temperature in winter, so it can carry out skiing.(2) The statistics show that the number of skiers in Yushe is significantly inversely correlated with wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation.(3)According to the Climate background characteristics of Yushe Skiing Ground, classification is made according to three meteorological factors of precipitation, relative humidity and comfort index. The test results of actual skiing population classification and skiing meteorological index forecast grade show that: The accuracy of the actual skiing meteorological grade is the same as that of the index forecast grade, the accuracy of the actual skiing meteorological grade and the index forecast grade is 66.7%, so, the accuracy of the forecast skiing meteorological index grade and the actual skiing meteorological index grade is greater than or equal to 1 is 93%.
In this paper, based on the climatic data of 30 years near Yushe ski resort in Guizhou Province from 1988 to 2017, the passenger flow data of winter ski resort from 2015 to 2016. Analysis of the Relation between Skiing and Meteorological Conditions in High Altitude Areas of Guizhou Province. Then the skiing meteorological index is classified. The results show that:(1) Yushe Skiing Ground has the characteristics of less rain, low wind and suitable temperature in winter, so it can carry out skiing.(2) The statistics show that the number of skiers in Yushe is significantly inversely correlated with wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation.(3)According to the Climate background characteristics of Yushe Skiing Ground, classification is made according to three meteorological factors of precipitation, relative humidity and comfort index. The test results of actual skiing population classification and skiing meteorological index forecast grade show that: The accuracy of the actual skiing meteorological grade is the same as that of the index forecast grade, the accuracy of the actual skiing meteorological grade and the index forecast grade is 66.7%, so, the accuracy of the forecast skiing meteorological index grade and the actual skiing meteorological index grade is greater than or equal to 1 is 93%.
引文
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[14] 许启慧,范引琪,于长文,等.滑雪场建设气候条件分析[J].气象科技,2014,42(5):938-944
[15] 刘中新,陶列.大别山人造雪滑雪场选址气象条件分析及风险评估[J].中低纬山地气象,2018,42(2):81-84
[16] 气象行业标准QX/T 386-2017滑雪气象指数[S].中华人民共和国气象行业标准,2017
[17] 胡淑娟,雷晓云,邢坤,等.西天山气象因子对融雪期积雪深度影响通径分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):33-37
[18] 刘文伟,董芹,臧晓钟.常州晾晒气象指数的探讨[J].气象科学,2001,21(4):486-489
[19] 吴海涛.伏牛山滑雪度假区气象条件分析[J].河南气象,2005,1:37-38
[20] 隋心,梁桂彦,徐嘉,等.黑龙江省冰雪旅游的气候条件分析[J].黑龙江气象,2008,25(1):27-30
[2] 党冰,王式功,尚可政.甘肃平凉市的旅游气候舒适度评价[J].干旱气象,2013,31(4):684-689
[3] 肖晶晶,李正泉,郭芬芬,等.浙江省人居环境气候适宜度概率分布分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):120-125
[4] Atwater M M.Snow avalanches[J].Scientific American,1954,190(1):26-31
[5] Mc Clung D M.Characteristics of terrain,snow supply and forest cover for avalanche initiation by logging[J].Annals of Glaciology,2001,32(1):223-229
[6] Christen M,Kowalski J,Bartelt P.Ramms:Numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain[J].Cold Regions Science and Technology,2010,63(1-2):1-14
[7] Margreth S,Faillettaz J,Funk M,et al.Safety concept for hazards caused by ice avalanches from the Whymper hanging glacier in the Mont Blanc Massif Stefan[J].Cold Regions Science and Technology,2011,69(23):194-201
[8] 隋心,梁桂彦,徐嘉,等.黑龙江省冰雪旅游的气候条件分析[J].黑龙江气象,2008,25(1):27-30
[9] 郭菊馨,白波,王自英,等.滇西北旅游景区气象指数预报方法研究[J].气象科技,2005,33(6):604-608
[10] 高锋,谢勇,朴美花,等.气象条件与滑雪运动的关系研究[J].气象灾害防御,2017,24(1):21-25
[11] Thorsson S,Lindberg F,Bjorjlund J,et al.Potential changes in outdoor thermal comfort conditions in Gothenburg,Sweden due to climate change:the influence of urban geometry[J].International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(2) :324-335
[12] 孟繁华.2016年2月崇礼地区与滑雪赛区气候对比分析[J].农业气象,2017,12(34):81-82
[13] 李博宇,庞旭龙.北大壶滑雪场冬季滑雪气象条件分析[J].吉林农业,2018,21:119-120
[14] 许启慧,范引琪,于长文,等.滑雪场建设气候条件分析[J].气象科技,2014,42(5):938-944
[15] 刘中新,陶列.大别山人造雪滑雪场选址气象条件分析及风险评估[J].中低纬山地气象,2018,42(2):81-84
[16] 气象行业标准QX/T 386-2017滑雪气象指数[S].中华人民共和国气象行业标准,2017
[17] 胡淑娟,雷晓云,邢坤,等.西天山气象因子对融雪期积雪深度影响通径分析[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(3):33-37
[18] 刘文伟,董芹,臧晓钟.常州晾晒气象指数的探讨[J].气象科学,2001,21(4):486-489
[19] 吴海涛.伏牛山滑雪度假区气象条件分析[J].河南气象,2005,1:37-38
[20] 隋心,梁桂彦,徐嘉,等.黑龙江省冰雪旅游的气候条件分析[J].黑龙江气象,2008,25(1):27-30