ABM模型支持下的城市增长边界划定研究——以重庆为例
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摘要
研究目的:探讨UGB划定的理念和方法。研究方法:以重庆为例,将基于智能体的模型(ABM)与UGB划定相结含,整合生态控制刚性边界和城市增长弹性边界,在复杂山地环境下划定UGB。本文模拟4种不同政府类型下的弹性UGBs方案:即一般型政府(GG)、谨慎型政府(CG)、开发型政府(DG)和放任型政府(MG)。研究结果:4种方案下的UGBs方案各有优劣,如CG方案追求平稳发展,城市开发受规划控制较严,强调耕地保护目标和城市空间紧凑发展;GG方案表现仅次于CG方案;DG方案更强调经济驱动和城市扩张,城市开发部分越过规划红线,致使城市紧凑度较低:MG方案中对城市开发管制较少,出现了明显的蔓延趋势。研究结论:ABM模型校正的像元吻合率达到82.92%,其模拟结果可作为弹性UGBs划定的参照,但还需根据城市规划目标来调整,尤其是体现多中心组团式的总体格局。
The purpose of this paper is to explore the methods of delineating UGBs in China. Taking Chongqing as a case, this paper attempted to integrate the simulation of ABM model and the delineation of UGB to explore the delineation of UGBs in complex mountainous setting. Particularly, this study combined the rigorous boundaries for the purpose of ecological protection and the elastic boundaries for providing new space for urban growth. Four scenarios were defined to simulate different types of local governments considering their preferences toward development and protection: i.e., general government(GG), cautious government(CG), developmental government(DG) and minimalist government(MG). The results indicated that four scenarios of UGBs had their respective advantages and shortcomings. Specifically, the scenarios of CG paid attention on the moderate speed of development, the compact urban form and the minimal loss of farmland, thus being consistent with the goals of planning permits. The scenarios of GG had good performances similar to that of CG. The scenario of DG focused on rapid urban development, thus not conforming to master plans and leading to outward growths. The scenario of MG was evident in sprawling,without rigorous zoning and regulations. However, it should be noted that the results of UGBs simulated by ABM should be adjusted and adapted to satisfy the goals of urban planning, such as polycentric urban development.
The purpose of this paper is to explore the methods of delineating UGBs in China. Taking Chongqing as a case, this paper attempted to integrate the simulation of ABM model and the delineation of UGB to explore the delineation of UGBs in complex mountainous setting. Particularly, this study combined the rigorous boundaries for the purpose of ecological protection and the elastic boundaries for providing new space for urban growth. Four scenarios were defined to simulate different types of local governments considering their preferences toward development and protection: i.e., general government(GG), cautious government(CG), developmental government(DG) and minimalist government(MG). The results indicated that four scenarios of UGBs had their respective advantages and shortcomings. Specifically, the scenarios of CG paid attention on the moderate speed of development, the compact urban form and the minimal loss of farmland, thus being consistent with the goals of planning permits. The scenarios of GG had good performances similar to that of CG. The scenario of DG focused on rapid urban development, thus not conforming to master plans and leading to outward growths. The scenario of MG was evident in sprawling,without rigorous zoning and regulations. However, it should be noted that the results of UGBs simulated by ABM should be adjusted and adapted to satisfy the goals of urban planning, such as polycentric urban development.
引文
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[4]韩昊英.城市增长边界的理论与应用[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社.2014:139.
[5]Cho S,Chen Z,Yen S T,et al.Estimating effects of an urban growth boundary on land development[J].Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,2006,38(2):287.
[6]王颖.苏州城市增长边界(UGB)初步研究[D].北京:清华大学,2013.
[7]龙瀛.韩昊英.毛其智.利用约束性CA制定城市增长边界[J].地理学报.2009,64(8):999-1008.
[8]祝仲文,莫滨,谢芙蓉.基于土地生态适宜性评价的城市空间增长边界划定:以防城港市为例[J].规划师.2009(11):40-44.
[9]沙鸥.山地城市增长边界划定研究:以湘西自治州花垣县城为例[J].规划师,2012,27(C00):23-28.
[10]黄明华,寇聪慧,屈雯.寻求“刚性”与“弹性”的结合:对城市增长边界的思考[J].规划师.2012,28(3):12-15.
[11]李咏华.基于GIA设定城市增长边界的模型研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2011.
[12]李咏华.城市增长边界设定的路径·技术·方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2014:245.
[13]张鸿辉,曾永年.智能城市土地利用空间模拟[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:180.
[14]黎夏,刘小平,李少英.智能式GIS与空间优化[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:275.
[15]黎夏,叶嘉安,刘小平,等.地理模拟系统:元胞自动机与多智能体[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:312.
[16]张鸿辉.多智能体城市规划空间决策模型及其应用研究[D].长沙:中南大学.2011.
[17]Brown D G.Page S,Riolo R,et al.Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2005(19):153-174.
[18]Torrens P M.Cellular Automata and Multi-agent Systems as Planning Support Tools[A]//Planning Support Systems in Practice[M].Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2003:205-222.
[19]张勤,华芳,王沈玉.杭州城市开发边界划定与实施研究[J].城市规划学刊,2016(1):28-36.
[20]汪锐良.基于ABM的城市扩张、耕地保护与湿地流失的模拟研究:以杭州市萧山区为例[D].杭州:浙江大学,2013.
[21]季民河,Michael Monticino,Miguel Acevedo.基于多代理模型的城市土地利用博弈模拟[J].地理研究,2009,28(1):85-96.