中国小麦面积种植结构时空动态变化分析
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摘要
区域尺度小麦种植面积格局分析是农作物种植结构调整的主要依据。本文基于以往8个年份的31个省(市、自治区)小麦种植面积统计数据,系统分析了小麦种植面积空间分布规律及动态变化特征,以及产量与面积空间分布格局的关系。8个年份小麦种植面积变化趋势线斜率为-0.37,总体呈下降趋势。将小麦种植面积分为中东部小麦集中种植区、北部小麦次种植区和南部小麦次种植区3个区域,8个年份种植面积平均值占比分别为70.09%、13.47%(不包括黑龙江省)和12.61%,呈增加、减少与减少的趋势,变异系数分别为0.06、0.22和0.25。上述研究结果表明,中东部区域小麦面积具有更高的种植稳定性且向区域集中的趋势较为明显,而北部区域小麦种植面积的减少是造成全国小麦种植面积减少的主要原因。各省单产与种植面积占比的相关关系在99%水平上达到了显著相关,单产优势也是种植区集中较为重要的原因。中东部区域小麦种植面积的稳定是中国小麦种植面积稳定的保证;虽然北部、南部区域小麦种植面积比例相对较低,但遏制其面积降低的态势,并努力提升该区域的种植面积有利于中国小麦种植面积的稳定。
Analysis of wheat planting area distribution pattern in a regional scale is the major basis for crop planting structure adjustment. Based on the statistical data of wheat planting area of 31 provinces(municipalities, and autonomous regions) of eight years, the paper systematically analyzed the wheat planting area spatial distribution pattern and dynamical change features, as well as the relation between production output and planting area spatial distribution pattern. The slope of trend line of wheat planting area change of eight years was-0.37, showed a downtrend in general. The wheat planting areas were divided into three areas:central and eastern major wheat concentration planting area, northern secondary wheat planting area and southern secondary wheat planting area, with the average proportion of the planting area in eight years was70.09%, 13.47%(without Heilongjiang) and 12.61% respectively, showed increase, decrease and decrease trends respectively, with the variable coefficient of 0.06, 0.22 and 0.25 respectively. The above study indicated that, the wheat planting area of central and eastern area had higher stability, and showed a notable regional concentration, while the decrease of planting area of northern area was the primary cause of the decrease of the wheat planting area of the whole country. Correlation between per unit yield and the proportion of planting area was significant in the level of 99%, and the advantage of per unit yield was also the important reason for planting area concentration. The stability of wheat planting area in central and eastern area ensured the stability of the wheat planting area of the country. Although the proportion of wheat planting area in northern and southern areas was relatively low, but restraining the decreasing trend of planting area of these areas and improving the planting area of these areas will be conductive to the stability of the wheat planting area of the country.
Analysis of wheat planting area distribution pattern in a regional scale is the major basis for crop planting structure adjustment. Based on the statistical data of wheat planting area of 31 provinces(municipalities, and autonomous regions) of eight years, the paper systematically analyzed the wheat planting area spatial distribution pattern and dynamical change features, as well as the relation between production output and planting area spatial distribution pattern. The slope of trend line of wheat planting area change of eight years was-0.37, showed a downtrend in general. The wheat planting areas were divided into three areas:central and eastern major wheat concentration planting area, northern secondary wheat planting area and southern secondary wheat planting area, with the average proportion of the planting area in eight years was70.09%, 13.47%(without Heilongjiang) and 12.61% respectively, showed increase, decrease and decrease trends respectively, with the variable coefficient of 0.06, 0.22 and 0.25 respectively. The above study indicated that, the wheat planting area of central and eastern area had higher stability, and showed a notable regional concentration, while the decrease of planting area of northern area was the primary cause of the decrease of the wheat planting area of the whole country. Correlation between per unit yield and the proportion of planting area was significant in the level of 99%, and the advantage of per unit yield was also the important reason for planting area concentration. The stability of wheat planting area in central and eastern area ensured the stability of the wheat planting area of the country. Although the proportion of wheat planting area in northern and southern areas was relatively low, but restraining the decreasing trend of planting area of these areas and improving the planting area of these areas will be conductive to the stability of the wheat planting area of the country.
引文
[1]肖池伟,李鹏,封志明,等.1976年~2013年老挝主要农作物种植结构时空演变特征分析[J].世界地理研究,2017,26(6):31-39.
[2]徐慧,汪权方,李家永,等.1980年以来中国大宗作物空间格局变化分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):55-66.
[3]谭智心,曹慧,陈洁.中国粮食生产区域布局的演变特征及成因分析—基于全国各省(区)面板数据的实证研究[J].调研世界,2012(9):7-11.
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[5] Stern A J, Doraiswamy P C, Hunt E R. Changes of crop rotation in Iowa determined from the United States department of agriculture,national agricultural statistics service cropland data layer product[J].Journal of Applied Remote Sensing,2012,6(1):3590.
[6]张群,胡春胜,陈素英,等.多时相遥感影像监测冬小麦种植面积的变化研究—以河北省三河市与大厂回族自治县为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2006,14(3):180-183.
[7]潘学鹏,李改欣,刘峰贵,等.华北平原冬小麦面积遥感提取及时空变化研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(4):497-505.
[8] Li Z P, Long Y Q, Tang P Q, et al. Spatio-temporal changes in rice area at the northern limits of the rice cropping system in China from1984 to 2013[J].Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2017,16(02):360-367.
[9] Clauss K, Yan H, Kuenzer C. Mapping paddy rice in China in 2002,2005, 2010 and 2014 with MODIS time series[J].Remote Sensing,2016,8(5):1-22.
[10] Xiao W W, Sun Z G, Wang Q X, et al. Evaluating MODIS phenology product for rotating croplands through ground observations[J].Journal of Applied Remote Sensing,2013,7(1):609-618.
[11] Hasan M N, Miah M A M, Islam M S, et al. Change and instability in area and production of wheat and maize in Bangladesh[J].Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research,2008,33(3):409-417.
[12]曹丹,白林燕,冯建中,等.东北三省水稻种植面积时空变化监测与分析[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(10):260-265.
[13] Shapla T, Park J, Hongo C, et al. Change Detection of Rice Cultivation in Bangladesh Based on the Phenological Analysis of MODIS Data[J].Advances in Remote Sensing,2015,04(4):319-329.
[14]张莉,吴文斌,杨鹏,等.黑龙江省宾县农作物格局时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(15):3227-3237.
[15]李奇峰,张海林,陈阜.东北农作区粮食作物种植格局变化的特征分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2008,13(3):74-79.
[16] Bezabeh E, Haregewoin T, Giorgis D H, et al. Change and growth rate analysis in area, yield and production of wheat in Ethiopia[J].Research Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Management,2015,4(4):189-191.
[17]雷金银,吴霞,王长军,等.1980—2015年宁夏农作物种植结构时空变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(12):172-178.
[18]史磊刚,于景鑫,陶欢,等.基于RS和GIS的北京冬小麦面积多尺度时空变化研究[J].麦类作物学报,2018,38(1):41-49.
[19] Junges A H, Fontana D C, Melo R W D. Characterization of wheat crop in the north region of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, through official estimations of cropping area, grain production and yield[J].Ciencia Rural,2012,42(1):31-37.
[20]刘珍环,李正国,唐鹏钦,等.近30年中国水稻种植区域与产量时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(5):680-693.
[21]杨莉,杨德刚,张豫芳,等.新疆棉花种植面积时空格局演变特征及驱动机制研究[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(2):476-484.
[22]肖池伟,刘影,李鹏.近20年江西省水稻生产优势与时空变化分析[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(5):727-735.
[23]陈亚雄,万帆,周卫红,等.中国作物填图—冬小麦潜在分布[J].兰州大学学报:自科版,2009,45(s1):12-18.
[24]孙爽,杨晓光,赵锦,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响Ⅺ.气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区变化特征[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(10):1926-1941.
[25]徐志宇,宋振伟,邓艾兴,等.近30年我国主要粮食作物生产的驱动因素及空间格局变化研究[J].南京农业大学学报,2013,36(1):79-86.
[26]刘珍环,杨鹏,吴文斌,等.近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):840-851.
[27]姜会飞,潘学标,吴文良.中国小麦生产的时空变异及区域优势分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2005,26(5):39-42.
[28] El-Shehawy M A, Ahmed R A, Lu Q. Production trends of China's wheat(1990-2008)[J].Australian Journal of Basic&Applied Sciences,2011,5(5).
[29]邓宗兵,封永刚,张俊亮,等.中国粮食生产区域格局演变研究[J].农业技术经济,2013(9):108-114.
[30]徐慧,汪权方,王新生,等.中国同期作物空间格局变化分析—以小麦和油菜为例[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(21):95-99.
[31]刘珍环,唐鹏钦,范玲玲,等.1980—2010年东北地区种植结构时空变化特征[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(21):4107-4119.
[32]叶志标.中国小麦空间格局演变及其驱动因素贡献份额研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2017.
[33]赵广才.中国小麦种植区划研究(一)[J].麦类作物学报,2010,30(5):886-895.
[34]赵广才.中国小麦种植区划研究(二)[J].麦类作物学报,2010,30(6):1140-1147.
[35]李明辉,周玉玺,周林,等.中国小麦生产区域优势度演变及驱动因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(5):7-15.
[36]赵稷伟,王锡平,杜汛雨,等.河北省冬小麦生产空间格局及其控制因素[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(12):1683-1692.
[2]徐慧,汪权方,李家永,等.1980年以来中国大宗作物空间格局变化分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):55-66.
[3]谭智心,曹慧,陈洁.中国粮食生产区域布局的演变特征及成因分析—基于全国各省(区)面板数据的实证研究[J].调研世界,2012(9):7-11.
[4] Boryan C, Yang Z W, Mueller R, et al. Monitoring US agriculture:the US department of agriculture, national agricultural statistics service, cropland data layer program[J].Geocarto International,2011,26(5):341-358.
[5] Stern A J, Doraiswamy P C, Hunt E R. Changes of crop rotation in Iowa determined from the United States department of agriculture,national agricultural statistics service cropland data layer product[J].Journal of Applied Remote Sensing,2012,6(1):3590.
[6]张群,胡春胜,陈素英,等.多时相遥感影像监测冬小麦种植面积的变化研究—以河北省三河市与大厂回族自治县为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2006,14(3):180-183.
[7]潘学鹏,李改欣,刘峰贵,等.华北平原冬小麦面积遥感提取及时空变化研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(4):497-505.
[8] Li Z P, Long Y Q, Tang P Q, et al. Spatio-temporal changes in rice area at the northern limits of the rice cropping system in China from1984 to 2013[J].Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2017,16(02):360-367.
[9] Clauss K, Yan H, Kuenzer C. Mapping paddy rice in China in 2002,2005, 2010 and 2014 with MODIS time series[J].Remote Sensing,2016,8(5):1-22.
[10] Xiao W W, Sun Z G, Wang Q X, et al. Evaluating MODIS phenology product for rotating croplands through ground observations[J].Journal of Applied Remote Sensing,2013,7(1):609-618.
[11] Hasan M N, Miah M A M, Islam M S, et al. Change and instability in area and production of wheat and maize in Bangladesh[J].Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research,2008,33(3):409-417.
[12]曹丹,白林燕,冯建中,等.东北三省水稻种植面积时空变化监测与分析[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(10):260-265.
[13] Shapla T, Park J, Hongo C, et al. Change Detection of Rice Cultivation in Bangladesh Based on the Phenological Analysis of MODIS Data[J].Advances in Remote Sensing,2015,04(4):319-329.
[14]张莉,吴文斌,杨鹏,等.黑龙江省宾县农作物格局时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(15):3227-3237.
[15]李奇峰,张海林,陈阜.东北农作区粮食作物种植格局变化的特征分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2008,13(3):74-79.
[16] Bezabeh E, Haregewoin T, Giorgis D H, et al. Change and growth rate analysis in area, yield and production of wheat in Ethiopia[J].Research Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Management,2015,4(4):189-191.
[17]雷金银,吴霞,王长军,等.1980—2015年宁夏农作物种植结构时空变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(12):172-178.
[18]史磊刚,于景鑫,陶欢,等.基于RS和GIS的北京冬小麦面积多尺度时空变化研究[J].麦类作物学报,2018,38(1):41-49.
[19] Junges A H, Fontana D C, Melo R W D. Characterization of wheat crop in the north region of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, through official estimations of cropping area, grain production and yield[J].Ciencia Rural,2012,42(1):31-37.
[20]刘珍环,李正国,唐鹏钦,等.近30年中国水稻种植区域与产量时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(5):680-693.
[21]杨莉,杨德刚,张豫芳,等.新疆棉花种植面积时空格局演变特征及驱动机制研究[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(2):476-484.
[22]肖池伟,刘影,李鹏.近20年江西省水稻生产优势与时空变化分析[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(5):727-735.
[23]陈亚雄,万帆,周卫红,等.中国作物填图—冬小麦潜在分布[J].兰州大学学报:自科版,2009,45(s1):12-18.
[24]孙爽,杨晓光,赵锦,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响Ⅺ.气候变化背景下中国冬小麦潜在光温适宜种植区变化特征[J].中国农业科学,2015,48(10):1926-1941.
[25]徐志宇,宋振伟,邓艾兴,等.近30年我国主要粮食作物生产的驱动因素及空间格局变化研究[J].南京农业大学学报,2013,36(1):79-86.
[26]刘珍环,杨鹏,吴文斌,等.近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):840-851.
[27]姜会飞,潘学标,吴文良.中国小麦生产的时空变异及区域优势分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2005,26(5):39-42.
[28] El-Shehawy M A, Ahmed R A, Lu Q. Production trends of China's wheat(1990-2008)[J].Australian Journal of Basic&Applied Sciences,2011,5(5).
[29]邓宗兵,封永刚,张俊亮,等.中国粮食生产区域格局演变研究[J].农业技术经济,2013(9):108-114.
[30]徐慧,汪权方,王新生,等.中国同期作物空间格局变化分析—以小麦和油菜为例[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(21):95-99.
[31]刘珍环,唐鹏钦,范玲玲,等.1980—2010年东北地区种植结构时空变化特征[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(21):4107-4119.
[32]叶志标.中国小麦空间格局演变及其驱动因素贡献份额研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2017.
[33]赵广才.中国小麦种植区划研究(一)[J].麦类作物学报,2010,30(5):886-895.
[34]赵广才.中国小麦种植区划研究(二)[J].麦类作物学报,2010,30(6):1140-1147.
[35]李明辉,周玉玺,周林,等.中国小麦生产区域优势度演变及驱动因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(5):7-15.
[36]赵稷伟,王锡平,杜汛雨,等.河北省冬小麦生产空间格局及其控制因素[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(12):1683-1692.