基于前景理论与PROMETHEE的FMEA风险评估
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摘要
针对考虑群体评价一致性和专家心理感知行为影响的失效模式及影响分析风险评估问题,提出了基于前景理论和偏好序结构排序法(PROMETHEE)的风险评估方法。首先,专家团队采用语言变量表征风险因子评价信息,利用直觉模糊熵确定风险因子客观权重;其次,采用灰关联度刻画专家评价与群体评价的一致性,以最大化关联度和极大熵准则构建专家权重优化模型;然后,集成风险因子和专家的主客观权重,获得风险因子及专家的综合权重;再次,运用直觉模糊加权平均算子集结专家评价信息,进而借助前景理论构建反应专家心理感知的前景矩阵;最后,基于PROMETHEE方法确定失效模式风险排序,并利用液晶显示器的案例验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。
In order to consider the influence of group evaluation consistency and expert psychological perception behavior in risk assessment of failure mode and effect analysis,a method of risk assessment based on prospect theory and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations( PROMETHEE) is proposed.Firstly,linguistic variables are introduced to characterize the risk factor evaluation information,and intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to determine the objective weight of risk factors. Secondly,the consistency of expert evaluation and group evaluation is depicted by the grey relation degree,and a optimization model is constructed with the maximum correlation degree and maximum entropy criterion. Thirdly,the subjective and objective weights of risk factors and experts are integrated,and the comprehensive weights of risk factors and experts are obtained.Then,the intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging operator is used to aggregate the expert evaluation information,and with the help of prospect theory,the prospect matrix of the reaction expert's psychological perception is constructed. Finally,the PROMETHEE method is applied to determine the risk ranking of failure mode and effect analysis,and the validity and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by a case of liquid crystal display.
In order to consider the influence of group evaluation consistency and expert psychological perception behavior in risk assessment of failure mode and effect analysis,a method of risk assessment based on prospect theory and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations( PROMETHEE) is proposed.Firstly,linguistic variables are introduced to characterize the risk factor evaluation information,and intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to determine the objective weight of risk factors. Secondly,the consistency of expert evaluation and group evaluation is depicted by the grey relation degree,and a optimization model is constructed with the maximum correlation degree and maximum entropy criterion. Thirdly,the subjective and objective weights of risk factors and experts are integrated,and the comprehensive weights of risk factors and experts are obtained.Then,the intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging operator is used to aggregate the expert evaluation information,and with the help of prospect theory,the prospect matrix of the reaction expert's psychological perception is constructed. Finally,the PROMETHEE method is applied to determine the risk ranking of failure mode and effect analysis,and the validity and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by a case of liquid crystal display.
引文
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[5] Du Y,Mo H,Deng X,et al. A new method in failure mode and effects analysis based on evidential reasoning[J]. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management,2014,5(1):1-10.
[6] Zhou Y,Xia J,Zhong Y,et al. An improved FMEA method based on the linguistic weighted geometric operator and fuzzy priority[J]. Quality Engineering,2016,28(4):491-498.
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[13] Liu H C,You J X,Shan M M,et al. Failure mode and effects analysis using intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid TOPSIS approach[J]. Soft Computing, 2015, 19(4):1085-1098.
[14] Hajiagha S H R,Hashemi S S,Mohammadi Y,et al.Fuzzy belief structure based VIKOR method:an application for ranking delay causes of Tehran metro system by FMEA criteria[J]. Transport, 2016, 31(1):108-118.
[15] Chang K H,Chang Y C,Lee Y T. Integrating TOPSIS and DEMATEL methods to rank the risk of failure of FMEA[J]. International Journal of Information Technology&Decision Making, 2014, 13(06):1229-1257.
[16] Liu H C,Fan X J,Li P,et al. Evaluating the risk of failure modes with extended MULTIMOORA method under fuzzy environment[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2014,34:168-177.
[17] Liu H C,You J X,Chen S,et al. An integrated failure mode and effect analysis approach for accurate risk assessment under uncertainty[J]. IIE Transactions,2016,48(11):1027-1042.
[18] Atanassov K T. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1986,20(1):87-96.
[19] Xu Z,Yager R R. Some geometric aggregation operators based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. International Journal of General Systems,2006,35(4):417-433.
[20] Xu Z. Intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operators. IEEE trans fuzzy syst[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2008,14(6):1179-1187.
[21] Boran F E,Gen? S,Kurt M,et al. A multi-criteria intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making for supplier selection with TOPSIS method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(8):11363-11368.
[22] Wang Z,Zhan W. Dynamic engineering multi-criteria decision making model optimized by entropy weight for evaluating bid[J]. Systems Engineering Procedia,2012,5:49-54.
[23] Szmidt E,Kacprzyk J. Entropy for intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Fuzzy sets and systems,2001,118(3):467-477.
[24] Wu J Z,Zhang Q. Multicriteria decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy weighted entropy[J].Expert Systems with Applications, 2011, 38(1):916-922.
[25]闫书丽,刘思峰,方志耕,等.区间灰数群决策中决策者和属性权重确定方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(9):2372-2378.
[26]刘思峰,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].科学出版社,2017.
[27] Xu Z S,Yager R R. Dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy mulitattribute decision making[J]. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,2008,48(1):246-262.
[28] Kahneman D,Tversky A. Prospect theory:an analysis of decision under risk[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the econometric society,1979,47(2):140-170.
[29] Brans J P,Vincke P. A preference ranking organisation method[J]. Management Science,1985, 31(6):647-656.
[30] Behzadian M,Kazemzadeh R B,Albadvi A,et al.PROMETHEE:a comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2010,200(1):198-215.
[2] Liu H C,Liu L,Liu N. Risk evaluation approaches in failure mode and effects analysis:a literature review[J].Expert Systems with Applications, 2013, 40(2):828-838.
[3] Asan U,Soyer A. Failure mode and effects analysis under uncertainty:a literature review and tutorial[M].Intelligent Decision Making in Quality Management.Springer International Publishing,2016:265-325.
[4] Wang Y M,Chin K S,Poon G K K,et al. Risk evaluation in failure mode and effects analysis using fuzzy weighted geometric mean[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(2):1195-1207.
[5] Du Y,Mo H,Deng X,et al. A new method in failure mode and effects analysis based on evidential reasoning[J]. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management,2014,5(1):1-10.
[6] Zhou Y,Xia J,Zhong Y,et al. An improved FMEA method based on the linguistic weighted geometric operator and fuzzy priority[J]. Quality Engineering,2016,28(4):491-498.
[7] Gargama H, Chaturvedi S K. Criticality assessment models for failure mode effects and criticality analysis using fuzzy logic[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2011,60(1):102-110.
[8] Liu H C,You J X,Fan X J,et al. Failure mode and effects analysis using D numbers and grey relational projection method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2014,41(10):4670-4679.
[9] Song W,Ming X,Wu Z,et al. Failure modes and effects analysis using integrated weight-based fuzzy TOPSIS[J]. International Journal of Computer Integrated Manufacturing,2013,26(12):1172-1186.
[10]聂文滨,刘卫东,胡坤,等.基于群决策和广义豪斯多夫距离的工艺失效风险评估[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(9):2484-2493.
[11]安相华,于靖博,蔡卫国.基于混合多属性决策和关联分析的模糊粗糙FMEA评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016,22(11):2613-2621.
[12] Liu H C,You J X,Lin Q L,et al. Risk assessment in system FMEA combining fuzzy weighted average with fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory[J]. International Journal of Computer Integrated Manufacturing,2014,28(7):1-14.
[13] Liu H C,You J X,Shan M M,et al. Failure mode and effects analysis using intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid TOPSIS approach[J]. Soft Computing, 2015, 19(4):1085-1098.
[14] Hajiagha S H R,Hashemi S S,Mohammadi Y,et al.Fuzzy belief structure based VIKOR method:an application for ranking delay causes of Tehran metro system by FMEA criteria[J]. Transport, 2016, 31(1):108-118.
[15] Chang K H,Chang Y C,Lee Y T. Integrating TOPSIS and DEMATEL methods to rank the risk of failure of FMEA[J]. International Journal of Information Technology&Decision Making, 2014, 13(06):1229-1257.
[16] Liu H C,Fan X J,Li P,et al. Evaluating the risk of failure modes with extended MULTIMOORA method under fuzzy environment[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2014,34:168-177.
[17] Liu H C,You J X,Chen S,et al. An integrated failure mode and effect analysis approach for accurate risk assessment under uncertainty[J]. IIE Transactions,2016,48(11):1027-1042.
[18] Atanassov K T. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1986,20(1):87-96.
[19] Xu Z,Yager R R. Some geometric aggregation operators based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. International Journal of General Systems,2006,35(4):417-433.
[20] Xu Z. Intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operators. IEEE trans fuzzy syst[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2008,14(6):1179-1187.
[21] Boran F E,Gen? S,Kurt M,et al. A multi-criteria intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making for supplier selection with TOPSIS method[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(8):11363-11368.
[22] Wang Z,Zhan W. Dynamic engineering multi-criteria decision making model optimized by entropy weight for evaluating bid[J]. Systems Engineering Procedia,2012,5:49-54.
[23] Szmidt E,Kacprzyk J. Entropy for intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J]. Fuzzy sets and systems,2001,118(3):467-477.
[24] Wu J Z,Zhang Q. Multicriteria decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy weighted entropy[J].Expert Systems with Applications, 2011, 38(1):916-922.
[25]闫书丽,刘思峰,方志耕,等.区间灰数群决策中决策者和属性权重确定方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(9):2372-2378.
[26]刘思峰,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].科学出版社,2017.
[27] Xu Z S,Yager R R. Dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy mulitattribute decision making[J]. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,2008,48(1):246-262.
[28] Kahneman D,Tversky A. Prospect theory:an analysis of decision under risk[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the econometric society,1979,47(2):140-170.
[29] Brans J P,Vincke P. A preference ranking organisation method[J]. Management Science,1985, 31(6):647-656.
[30] Behzadian M,Kazemzadeh R B,Albadvi A,et al.PROMETHEE:a comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2010,200(1):198-215.