中亚对中国贸易结构与其产业结构变化关系实证分析
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摘要
中国和中亚国家不仅是友好邻邦,更是重要的战略合作伙伴,双方经贸往来有着悠久的历史。"丝绸之路经济带"的提出不仅有利于提高我国对外开放的水平和层次,促进沿线地区经济的发展,更为中国和中亚国家的贸易合作开拓了新的发展空间。本文利用1992-2015年的相关统计数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对中亚国家与中国的贸易结构变化和中亚产业结构变化之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,中亚对中国进、出口结构变化和中亚国家产业结构变化之间均存在着单向的因果关系,这对中亚国家通过优化与中国的贸易结构实现其产业结构升级具有重要的政策意义。
China and Central Asian countries are not only friendly neighbors, but also important strategic partners. Their economic and trade exchanges have a long history. The proposal of "Silk Road Economic Belt" is not only conducive to improving the level and level of China's opening to the outside world, promoting the economic development of the areas along the Silk Road, but also opening up a new space for the development of trade cooperation between China and Central Asian countries. Based on the relevant statistical data from 1992 to 2015, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the changes in trade structure in Central Asian countries and China and the changes in industrial structure in Central Asia by means of unit root test, cointegration test and granger causality test. The results show that there is a one-way causal relationship between the changes in Central Asia's import and export structure to China and the changes in industrial structure in Central Asian countries, which is of great policy significance for Central Asian countries to upgrade their industrial structure by optimizing their trade structure with China.
China and Central Asian countries are not only friendly neighbors, but also important strategic partners. Their economic and trade exchanges have a long history. The proposal of "Silk Road Economic Belt" is not only conducive to improving the level and level of China's opening to the outside world, promoting the economic development of the areas along the Silk Road, but also opening up a new space for the development of trade cooperation between China and Central Asian countries. Based on the relevant statistical data from 1992 to 2015, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the changes in trade structure in Central Asian countries and China and the changes in industrial structure in Central Asia by means of unit root test, cointegration test and granger causality test. The results show that there is a one-way causal relationship between the changes in Central Asia's import and export structure to China and the changes in industrial structure in Central Asian countries, which is of great policy significance for Central Asian countries to upgrade their industrial structure by optimizing their trade structure with China.
引文
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[2]Ghatak,S.,Milner,C.,Utkulu,U.Exports,export composition and growth:cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia[J].Applied Economics,1997,29(2):213-223.
[3]Khalafalla K Y,Webb A J.Export-led Growth and Structural Change:evidence from Malaysia[J].Applied Economics,2001,33(13):1703-1715.
[4]Jesus Crespo Cuaresma,Julia Worz.On Export Composition and Growth[J].Review of World Economics,2005,141(1):33-49.
[5]郭利红.对外贸易结构与产业结构关系的实证研究[D].湖南大学,2005.
[6]李荣林,姜茜.我国对外贸易结构对产业结构的先导效应检验--基于制造业数据分析[J].国际贸易问题,2010(8):3-12.
[7]孙晓华,王昀.对外贸易结构带动了产业结构升级吗?--基于半对数模型和结构效应的实证检验[J].世界经济研究,2013(1):15-21+87.
[8]彭华.日本贸易结构与产业结构变动的关联研究--基于1960-2010年制造业数据的VAR模型[J].经济问题探索,2013(4):180-190.
[9]孔炯炯.我国进出口贸易结构对产业结构的影响--基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].湖南社会科学,2014(1):115-118.
[10]黄蓉.中国对外贸易结构与产业结构的互动关系研究[D].上海社会科学院,2014.
[11]宋文.广西对外贸易商品结构与产业结构关系实证研究[J].广西民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,35(5):127-132.
[12]蓝庆新,田海峰.我国贸易结构变化与经济增长转型的实证分析及现状研究[J].株洲工学院学报,2002(2):39-44.
[13]吴振宇,沈利生.中国对外贸易对GDP贡献的经验分析[J].世界经济,2004(2):13-20.
[14]韩晶.贸易结构变化对经济增长转型影响分析[J].贵州财经学院学报,2000(5):40-43.