基于生境质量的城市增长边界研究——以长三角地区为例
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摘要
基于"生态优先"理念,提出一种利用生境质量评估策略的城市增长边界划定方法。结合Arc GIS和InVEST模型,通过综合评估生境自身及其在威胁情境下的质量,模拟各市独立规划、建设用地指标再分配及区域一体化发展的三类建设用地扩张情景,分别划定2024和2034年的长三角地区城市增长边界。结果表明:研究区生境质量总体呈南高北低格局,平均生态系统服务价值密度为10 770.604元/(hm2·a),高质生境位于西南地区;根据指标再分配及一体化发展情景模拟的2024年研究区建设用地总量分别为10 583.273 km2和10 489.090km2,2034年达到13 603.535 km2和13 252.370 km2;模拟的建设用地集中在东部沿海地区,并向北部及环杭州湾区域拓展;建设用地指标再分配能从整体上减少建设用地对优质生境的占用,区域一体化发展则能进一步降低城市发展造成的生态压力。
The world's natural ecosystem provides products of 15 trillion pounds annually, but with the universal urban expansion caused by economic development, ecological balance is gradually disrupted. Therefore, it's critical to maintain ecosystem stability in the identification of urban growth boundary, which is regarded as an effective tool to control urban sprawl. However, very few methods, currently, have taken ecosystem into their account. With the concept that"ecology goes first", this article put forward a method to identify the urban growth boundary based on the evaluation of habitat quality. Using the platform of Arc GIS and In VEST model,two aspects of habitat quality were considered in the assessment: the quality of habitat itself and the quality under threats. As a representative of the former quality, ecosystem service value of each cell was calculated. As to the latter one, In VEST model was used to assess cells' threatened degree. In the prediction of the amount of future construction land, three scenarios were developed. The first scenario was based on the assumption that cities had separate development and urban planning. The second scenario assumed that in spite of the separate planning, it's possible to conduct the redistribution of construction land index. The third scenario ignored the boundaries of administrative jurisdiction and regarded the study area as a single. By selecting districts with lower habitat quality as construction land, the simulated urban growth boundary of the Yangtze River Delta in2024 and 2034 were determined. The conclusions showed that habitat quality in the south of the Yangtze River Delta was overall higher than that in the north and the average density of ecosystem service values was 10770.6 yuan/(hm2·yr). Habitat with higher quality was located in the southwest area, while the lower one was in the eastern district and Round Hangzhou Bay. By 2024, the predicted quantity of construction land have been to 10 583.27 km2(scenario 1 and 2) and 10 489.09 km2(scenario 3), and then have been to 13 603.53 km2(scenario 1 and 2) and 13 252.37 km2(scenario 3) by 2034. East coastal area would be the center of construction land, and the northern districts and Round Hangzhou Bay were considered to be the main expansion area.In order to avoid the occupation of construction land on habitats with higher quality as a whole, 9 cities were classified as emigration region of construction land index, and 5 cities were categorized as immigration area,and the left 2 cities were transition regions. Moreover, regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta could also helpfully mollify the contradictions between urban development and ecological protection. Policy recommendations on the identification of urban growth boundary were proposed at the end, while possible innovations and inadequacies of this article were also concluded.
The world's natural ecosystem provides products of 15 trillion pounds annually, but with the universal urban expansion caused by economic development, ecological balance is gradually disrupted. Therefore, it's critical to maintain ecosystem stability in the identification of urban growth boundary, which is regarded as an effective tool to control urban sprawl. However, very few methods, currently, have taken ecosystem into their account. With the concept that"ecology goes first", this article put forward a method to identify the urban growth boundary based on the evaluation of habitat quality. Using the platform of Arc GIS and In VEST model,two aspects of habitat quality were considered in the assessment: the quality of habitat itself and the quality under threats. As a representative of the former quality, ecosystem service value of each cell was calculated. As to the latter one, In VEST model was used to assess cells' threatened degree. In the prediction of the amount of future construction land, three scenarios were developed. The first scenario was based on the assumption that cities had separate development and urban planning. The second scenario assumed that in spite of the separate planning, it's possible to conduct the redistribution of construction land index. The third scenario ignored the boundaries of administrative jurisdiction and regarded the study area as a single. By selecting districts with lower habitat quality as construction land, the simulated urban growth boundary of the Yangtze River Delta in2024 and 2034 were determined. The conclusions showed that habitat quality in the south of the Yangtze River Delta was overall higher than that in the north and the average density of ecosystem service values was 10770.6 yuan/(hm2·yr). Habitat with higher quality was located in the southwest area, while the lower one was in the eastern district and Round Hangzhou Bay. By 2024, the predicted quantity of construction land have been to 10 583.27 km2(scenario 1 and 2) and 10 489.09 km2(scenario 3), and then have been to 13 603.53 km2(scenario 1 and 2) and 13 252.37 km2(scenario 3) by 2034. East coastal area would be the center of construction land, and the northern districts and Round Hangzhou Bay were considered to be the main expansion area.In order to avoid the occupation of construction land on habitats with higher quality as a whole, 9 cities were classified as emigration region of construction land index, and 5 cities were categorized as immigration area,and the left 2 cities were transition regions. Moreover, regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta could also helpfully mollify the contradictions between urban development and ecological protection. Policy recommendations on the identification of urban growth boundary were proposed at the end, while possible innovations and inadequacies of this article were also concluded.
引文
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[3]Egoh B,Reyers B,Rouget M et al.Spatial congruence between biodiversity and ecosystem services in South Africa[J].Biological conservation,2009,142(3):553-562.
[4]Tannier C,Thomas I.Defining and characterizing urban boundaries:A fractal analysis of the theoretical cities and Belgian cities[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2013,(41):234-248.
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[7]Marin M C.Impacts of urban growth boundary versus exclusive farm use zoning agricultural land use[J].Urban Affairs Review,2007,43(2):199-220.
[8]Tayyebi A,Pijanowski B C,Tayyebi A H.An urban growth boundary model using neural networks,GIS and radial parameterization:An application to Tehran,Iran[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2011,100(1):35-44.
[9]韩昊英.城市增长边界的理论与应用[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2014.[Han Haoying.Theories and Application of Urban Growth Boundaries.Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press,2014.]
[10]冯科,吴次芳,韦仕川,等.城市增长边界的理论探讨与应用[J].经济地理,2008,28(3):425-429.[Feng Ke,Wu Cifang,Wei Shichuan et al.Research on urban growth boundary:Theoretical analysis and its application in China.Economic Geography,2008,28(3):425-429.]
[11]黄明华,田晓晴.关于新版《城市规划编制办法》中城市增长边界的思考[J].规划师,2008,24(6):13-15.[Huang Minghua,Tian Xiaoqing.Reflection on urban growth boundary in the new urban planning formulation means.Planners,2008,24(6):13-15.]
[12]李咏华.城市增长边界设定的路径、技术、方法[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2014.[Li Yonghua.The Establishment of Urban Growth Boundary Research Path,Technique,Method.Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press,2014.]
[13]翟宝辉,王如松,李博.基于非建设用地的城市用地规模及布局[J].城市规划学刊,2008,(4):70-74.[Zhai Baohui,Wang Rusong,Li Bo.The scale and allocation of urban land use based on land unfit for construction.Urban Planning Forum,2008,(4):70-74.]
[14]罗震东,张京祥.中国当前非城市建设用地规划研究的进展与思考[J].城市规划学刊,2007,(1):39-43.[Luo Zhendong,Zhang Jingxiang.The total progress on the planning study for the land out of urban constructing in China.Urban Planning Forum,2007,(1):39-43.]
[15]张鸿辉,王丽萍,金晓斌,等.基于多智能体系统的城市增长时空动态模拟--以江苏省连云港市为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(11):1289-1296.[Zhang Honghui,Wang Liping,Jin Xiaobin et al.Simulation of Spatio-temporal Dynamical Change of Urban Growth Based on Multi-agent System:Case Study of Lianyungang City,China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(11):1289-1296.]
[16]高玉宏,张丽娟,李文亮,等.基于空间模型和CA的城市用地扩展模拟研究--以大庆市为例[J].地理科学,2010,30(5):723-727.[Gao Yuhong,Zhang Lijuan,Li Wenliang et al.Urban Expansion Simulation Using GIS Spatial Analysis and Cellular Automata-A Case Study in Daqing City.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2010,30(5):723-727.]
[17]何丹,金凤君,周璟.基于Logistic-CA-Markov的土地利用景观格局变化--以京津冀都市圈为例[J].地理科学,2011,31(8):903-910.[He Dan,Jin Fengjun,Zhou Jing.The Changes of Land Use and Landscape Pattern Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model-A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(8):903-910.]
[18]Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report[M].Washington,DC:Island Press,2005.
[19]Kreuter U P,Harris H G,Matlock M D et al.Change in ecosystem service values in the San Antonio area,Texas[J].Ecological Economics,2001,39(3):333-346.
[20]Chaudhary S,Mc Gregor A,Houston D et al.The evolution of ecosystem services:A time series and discourse-centered analysis[J].Environmental Science and Policy,2015,(54):25-34.
[21]H?yh?T,Franzese P P,Paletto A et al.Assessing,valuing,and mapping ecosystem services in Alpine forests[J].Ecosystem Services,2015,(14):12-23.
[22]Stoll S,Frenzel M,Burkhard B et al.Assessment of ecosystem integrity and service gradients across Europe using the LTEREurope network[J].Ecological Modelling,2015,(295):75-87.
[23]王耕,王嘉丽,龚丽妍,等.基于GIS-Markov区域生态安全时空演变研究--以大连市甘井子区为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(8):957-964.[Wang Geng,Wang Jiali,Gong Liyan et al.Spatial-temporal Evolution of Regional Eco-security Based on GIS-Markov Model-A Case Study of Ganjingzi District in Dalian,Liaoning Province.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(8):957-964.]
[24]Costanza R,d’Arge R,De Groot R et al.The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital[J].Nature,1997,387(15):253-260.
[25]Daily G C.Nature’s Services:Social Dependence on Nature Ecosystems[M].Washington,DC:Island Press,1997.
[26]Leh M D K,Matlock M D,Cummings E C et al.Quantifying and mapping multiple ecosystem services change in West Africa[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2013,(165):6-18.
[27]Su C H,Fu B J.Evolution of ecosystem services in the Chinese Loess Plateau under climatic and land use changes[J].Global and Planetary Change,2013,(101):119-128.
[28]冯应斌,何建,杨庆媛.三峡库区生态屏障区土地利用规划生态效应评估[J].地理科学,2014,34(12):1504-1510.[Feng Yinbin,He Jian,Yang Qingyuan.Evaluation of Ecological Effects in Land Use Planning:A Case Study of Ecological Barrier Zone of Three Gorges Reservoir Area.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(12):1504-1510.]
[29]Marquès M,Bangash R F,Kumar V et al.The impact of climate change on water provision under a low flow regime:A case study of the ecosystems services in the Francoli River basin[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2013,(263):224-232.
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