基于模糊层次分析法的评估方法在电力系统应急通信预案中的应用研究
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摘要
为有效评估电力系统应急通信预案,发现并解决预案中可能出现的各类问题,以最大限度地减少电力系统突发事件造成的损失和对社会的不良影响,建立一种电力系统应急通信预案评估指标体系。针对评估过程中可能出现的主观因素影响,基于模糊层次分析法建立一种综合评估模型。同时以国网辽宁省电力有限公司某应急通信预案作为评估目标案例,展开具体评估分析。结果表明,该评估方法能够对应急通信预案进行较为准确、全面的评估,从而为预案的修订完善提供有效建议。
In order to evaluate the emergency communication plan effectively and to minimize the losses caused by incidents and the adverse effect on the society, as well as to detect and solve problems that may arise in the plan, a comprehensive evaluation index system for emergency communication plan is presented. In the meantime, a comprehensive evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is established to reduce the subjective factors that may appear in the assessment process. Furthermore, an evaluation example of the emergency communication plan in State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd. is also presented. The results show that the evaluation method can be used for evaluation of emergency communication plans, providing effective suggestions for revision and improvement of emergency plans.
In order to evaluate the emergency communication plan effectively and to minimize the losses caused by incidents and the adverse effect on the society, as well as to detect and solve problems that may arise in the plan, a comprehensive evaluation index system for emergency communication plan is presented. In the meantime, a comprehensive evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is established to reduce the subjective factors that may appear in the assessment process. Furthermore, an evaluation example of the emergency communication plan in State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd. is also presented. The results show that the evaluation method can be used for evaluation of emergency communication plans, providing effective suggestions for revision and improvement of emergency plans.
引文
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[16]雷琪,苗世洪,郭宝甫,等.基于层次分析和改进逼近理想解法的分层储能系统综合评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(3):13-19.LEI Qi,MIAO Shihong,GUO Baofu,et al.Comprehensive operation risk evaluation of overhead transmission line based on hierarchical analysis-entropy weight method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(3):13-19.
[17]张晶晶,许修乐,丁明,等.基于模糊层次分析法的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(3):75-81.ZHANG Jingjing,XU Xiule,DING Ming,et al.Acondition assessment method of power transformers based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(3):75-81.
[18]陈国宏,李美娟,陈衍泰.组合评价及其计算机集成系统研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007.
[19]张海龙,李雄飞,董立岩.应急预案评估方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(7):142-148.ZHANG Hailong,LI Xiongfei,DONG Liyan.Fuzzy evaluation model of emergency plans[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(7):142-148.
[20]张英菊.基于灰色多层次评价方法的应急预案实施效果评价模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2012,39(9):3312-3315.ZHANG Yingju.Research on implementation effect evaluation model of emergency plans based on multilevel and grey evaluation method[J].Application Research of Computers,2012,39(9):3312-3315.
[2]HOU Kaiyuan,SHAO Guanghui,WANG Haiming,et al.Research on practical power system stability analysis algorithm based on modified SVM[J].Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems,2018,3(3):119-125.DOI:10.1186/s41601-018-0086-0.
[3]王立新,孙智勇,董新宇,等.完备性评价在陕西电网突发事故应急预案中的应用研究[J].陕西电力,2009,37(7):45-50.WANG Lixin,SUN Zhiyong,DONG Xinyu,et al.Application of perfection evaluation in emergency prevention schemes of Shaanxi power grid[J].Shaanxi Electric Power,2009,37(7):45-50.
[4]薛元杰,周建新,刘铁民.突发事件应急预案的评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(10):127-132.XUE Yuanjie,ZHOU Jianxin,LIU Tiemin.Study on evaluation of emergency plans[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2015,11(10):127-132.
[5]ZHANG Baohui,HAO Zhiguo,BO Zhiqian.New development in relay protection for smart grid[J].Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems,2016,1(1):121-127.DOI:10.1186/s 41601-016-0025-x.
[6]杨云涵.政府公共突发事件应急预案评估模型研究[D].杭州:浙江工商大学,2011.YANG Yunhan.Research on the evaluation model of government emergency plans[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang Gongshang University,2011.
[7]薛元杰.突发事件应急预案的评估研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学,2016.XUE Yuanjie.Study on evaluation of emergency plans[D].Beijing:Capital University of Economics and Business,2016.
[8]罗文婷,王艳辉,贾利民,等.改进层次分析法在铁路应急预案评价中的应用研究[J].铁道学报,2008,30(6):24-28.LUO Wenting,WANG Yanhui,JIA Limin,et al.Application of improved AHP in evaluation of railway emergency plans[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2008,30(6):24-28.
[9]刘吉夫,张盼娟,陈志芬,等.我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅰ):完备性评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(2):5-11.LIU Jifu,ZHANG Panjuan,CHEN Zhifen,et al.Study on evaluation method of natural disaster emergency plan in China(part 1):completeness evaluation[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(2):5-11.
[10]陈国华,张新梅,金强.区域应急管理实务:预案、演练及绩效[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2008.
[11]NATSEV A,NAPHADE M R.Learning the semantics of multimedia queries and concepts from a small number of examples[C]//ACM International Conference on Multimedia,ACM,2005:598-607.
[12]QI G J,HUA X S,RUI Y,et al.Two-dimensional active learning for image classification[C]//2008 IEEEConference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition,June 23-28,2008,Anchorage,USA:1-8.
[13]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):148-153.GUO Jinyu,ZHANG Zhongbin,SUN Qingyun.Study and applications of analytic hierarchy process[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(5):148-153.
[14]樊自甫,魏晶莹,万晓榆,等.基于层次分析法与模糊综合评价的突发事件应急预案有效性评估[J].数字通信,2012,39(1):15-19.FAN Zifu,WEI Jingying,WAN Xiaoyu,et al.The effectiveness evaluation of emergency plan based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Digital Communication,2012,39(1):15-19.
[15]樊自甫,王蕾.基于流程的通信保障应急预案有效性评估模型及应用[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(1):185-189.FAN Zifu,WANG Lei.The effectiveness evaluation model of emergency plans of communication support based on the procedure and its application[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2016,36(1):185-189.
[16]雷琪,苗世洪,郭宝甫,等.基于层次分析和改进逼近理想解法的分层储能系统综合评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(3):13-19.LEI Qi,MIAO Shihong,GUO Baofu,et al.Comprehensive operation risk evaluation of overhead transmission line based on hierarchical analysis-entropy weight method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(3):13-19.
[17]张晶晶,许修乐,丁明,等.基于模糊层次分析法的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(3):75-81.ZHANG Jingjing,XU Xiule,DING Ming,et al.Acondition assessment method of power transformers based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(3):75-81.
[18]陈国宏,李美娟,陈衍泰.组合评价及其计算机集成系统研究[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007.
[19]张海龙,李雄飞,董立岩.应急预案评估方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(7):142-148.ZHANG Hailong,LI Xiongfei,DONG Liyan.Fuzzy evaluation model of emergency plans[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(7):142-148.
[20]张英菊.基于灰色多层次评价方法的应急预案实施效果评价模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2012,39(9):3312-3315.ZHANG Yingju.Research on implementation effect evaluation model of emergency plans based on multilevel and grey evaluation method[J].Application Research of Computers,2012,39(9):3312-3315.