基于云模型和证据理论的装备管理绩效评价
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摘要
针对部队装备管理绩效影响因素复杂,评价过程具有模糊性、不确定性等特点,提出了基于云模型和改进证据理论的装备管理绩效评价方法。首先,构建了装备管理绩效评价指标体系,采用组合赋权法确定指标权重;然后,借助云模型对评语信息进行建模,构造基本概率分配函数,再引入Jousselme距离,通过计算证据可信度和可靠度得到证据的复合权重,以此作为权重系数对证据源进行修正;最后,采用改进的证据融合规则进行各指标基本概率分配融合,得到综合评价结果。通过实例分析验证了指标体系的科学性和算法的有效性,为部队装备管理绩效评价提供了参考。
In view of the complex influence factors of military equipment management performance,the fuzziness and uncertainty of the evaluation process,a method of equipment management performance evaluation based on cloud model and improved evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,the performance evaluation index system of equipment management is established,and the weights of indicators are determined by combination weighting method.Then,a cloud model is used to model the expert comment information,and construct the basic probability assignment function.Then,the Jousselme distance is introduced,and the weight of evidence is obtained by calculating the credibility and reliability of evidence,which is used as a weighting coefficient to adjust original evidence.Finally,the different indexes of basic probability assignment(BPA)are fused to get the evaluation results with the improved evidence fusion rules.The instance analyzing proves the scientificity of the index system and the effectiveness of the algorithm,which can provide a reference for the assessment of military equipment management performance.
In view of the complex influence factors of military equipment management performance,the fuzziness and uncertainty of the evaluation process,a method of equipment management performance evaluation based on cloud model and improved evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,the performance evaluation index system of equipment management is established,and the weights of indicators are determined by combination weighting method.Then,a cloud model is used to model the expert comment information,and construct the basic probability assignment function.Then,the Jousselme distance is introduced,and the weight of evidence is obtained by calculating the credibility and reliability of evidence,which is used as a weighting coefficient to adjust original evidence.Finally,the different indexes of basic probability assignment(BPA)are fused to get the evaluation results with the improved evidence fusion rules.The instance analyzing proves the scientificity of the index system and the effectiveness of the algorithm,which can provide a reference for the assessment of military equipment management performance.
引文
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[21]张友鹏,李远远.基于云模型和证据理论的铁路信号系统风险评估[J].铁道学报,2016,38(1):75-80.ZHANG Y P,LI Y Y.Risk assessment of railway signal system based on cloud model and evidence theory[J].Journal of the china railway society,2016,38(1):75-78.
[2]程呈,高敏,程旭德,等.基于组合赋权的反坦克导弹武器系统作战效能评估研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(1):241-251.CHENG C,GAO M,CHENG X D,et al.Research on operational efficiency evaluation of anti-tank missile weapon system based on combination weighting[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2018,38(1):241-251.
[3]XU R S,ZHANG J L,ZUO H B,et al.A novel model for cost performance evaluation of pulverized coal injected into blast furnace based on effective calorific value[J].Journal of Central South University of Technology,2015,22(10):3990-3998.
[4]CELOTTO A,LOIA V,SENATORE S.Fuzzy linguistic approach to quality assessment model for electricity network infrastructure[J].Information Sciences,2015,304:1-15.
[5]袁周,方志耕.灰色主成分评价模型的构建及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(8):2086-2090.YUAN Z,FANG Z G.The construction and application of grey principal component evaluation model[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2016,36(8):2086-2090.
[6]KHOSHJAVAN S,REZAI B,HEIDARY M.Evaluation of effect of coal chemical properties on coal swelling index using artificial neural networks[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2011,38(10):12906-12912.
[7]WANG D,LIU D,DING H,et al.A cloud model-based approach for water quality assessment[J].Environmental Research,2016,148:24-35.
[8]WANG J Q,PENG J J,ZHANG H Y,et al.An uncertain linguistic multi-criteria decision-making method based on a cloud model[J].Group Decision and Negotiation,2015,24(1):171-192.
[9]WANG H F,LIN D Y,QIU J,et al.Research on multi-objective group decision-making in condition based maintenance for transmission and transformation equipment based on D-S evidence theory[J].IEEE Trans.on Smart Grid,2015,6(2):1035-1045.
[10]陈云翔,蔡忠义,张诤敏,等.基于证据理论和直觉模糊集的群决策信息集结方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015,37(3):594-598.CHEN Y X,CAI Z Y,ZHANG Z M,et al.Method for group decision-making information integration based on evidence theory and intuitionistic fuzzy set[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2015,37(3):594-598.
[11]杨健,阳富强,沈斐敏.基于改进DSmT的公路隧道行车安全综合评价方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(8):116-121.YANG J,YANG F Q,SHEN F M.Comprehensive evaluation of highway tunnel traffic safety based on improved DSmT[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(8):116-121.
[12]LV C,WU Z Z,LIU Z G,et al.The multi-level comprehensive safety evaluation for chemical production instalment based on the method that combines grey-clustering and EAHP[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,21:243-250.
[13]CHEN Y X,WU X Y,BU X W,et al.EMMD-Prony approach for dynamic validation of simulation models[J].Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics,2015,26(1):172-181.
[14]JOUSSELME A L,GRENIER D,BOSSE E.A new distance between two bodies of evidence[J].Information Fusion,2001,2(1):90-101.
[15]LIU W R.Analyzing the degree of conflict among belief functions[J].Artificial Intelligence,2006,170(11):909-924.
[16]YAGER R.R.On the D-S framework and new combination rules[J].Information Sciences,1987,41(2):93-138.
[17]SMETS P,KENNES R.The transferable belief model[J].Artificial Intelligence,1994,66(4):191-234.
[18]LEFEVRE E,COLOT O,VANNOORENBERGHE P.Belief function combination and conflict management[J].Information Fusion,2002,3(2):149-162.
[19]杨杰明,李恒宇,曲朝阳,等.基于全局分配和局部修正策略的冲突证据融合方法[J].东北师大学报(自然科学版),2017,49(1):68-72.YANG J M,LI H Y,QU Z Y,et al.Conflict evidence fusion based on the global distribution and partial remediation strategies[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2017,49(1):68-72.
[20]丛林虎,徐廷学,董琪,等.基于改进证据理论的导弹状态评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2016,38(1):70-76.CONG L H,XU T X,DONG Q,et al.Missile condition assessment method based on improved evidence theory[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2016,38(1):70-76.
[21]张友鹏,李远远.基于云模型和证据理论的铁路信号系统风险评估[J].铁道学报,2016,38(1):75-80.ZHANG Y P,LI Y Y.Risk assessment of railway signal system based on cloud model and evidence theory[J].Journal of the china railway society,2016,38(1):75-78.