美国政治文化转型与特朗普变量
|
摘要
冷战结束后,特别是进入21世纪以来,美国的经济、社会发展及其安全与国际环境的演变,从根本上触发了美国政治文化的当代转型。基于日益强烈的霸权衰落危机意识和"让美国再度伟大"的使命意识,美国政治文化的当代转型既非经典论述中的线性进步,也不可能出现重大的历史性倒退,更多是其内部既有要素的重新组合。特朗普当选标志着美国政治文化内部要素相互竞合进入关键时期,进而呈现重大不确定性和高度极端的可能。特朗普时期的美国政治文化转型可能催生更多极端政治思潮的涌现,加剧其政治制度的既有扭曲,并使其政治行为的极端对抗性进一步上升。美国政治文化的当代转型不仅将对美国内部发展产生深远影响,也可能产生重大的外溢性影响,既包括潜在的国际示范效应及"阻击努力",也包括美国在全球治理中的退缩及特朗普政府的"反外交"倾向所导致的冲击。
Fundamental changes in U.S.domestic landscape and international security environment since the end of the Cold War have triggered the transformation of American political culture.That culture combines growing concerns about the relative decline of the United States with a deep-rooted sense of mission to"Make America Great Again."This transformation is neither a classic linear progress nor a significant retrogress,but rather a realignment of U.S.internal elements.The election of Donald Trump suggests that competition among different elements of American political culture has entered a critical period characterized by high uncertainties and great danger of polarization.Trump's presidency has the potential to bring about extremist ideologies,thus increasing political confrontation.This transformation has important implications both for the domestic development and for the international community,including its demonstration effects and the possible shock brought by U.S.retreat from global governance.
Fundamental changes in U.S.domestic landscape and international security environment since the end of the Cold War have triggered the transformation of American political culture.That culture combines growing concerns about the relative decline of the United States with a deep-rooted sense of mission to"Make America Great Again."This transformation is neither a classic linear progress nor a significant retrogress,but rather a realignment of U.S.internal elements.The election of Donald Trump suggests that competition among different elements of American political culture has entered a critical period characterized by high uncertainties and great danger of polarization.Trump's presidency has the potential to bring about extremist ideologies,thus increasing political confrontation.This transformation has important implications both for the domestic development and for the international community,including its demonstration effects and the possible shock brought by U.S.retreat from global governance.
引文
(1)对老布什、克林顿和小布什总统执政特征的概括参见兹比格纽·布热津斯基著,陈东晓等译:《第二次机遇:三位总统与超级大国美国的危机》,上海人民出版社,2008年版;对小布什和奥巴马总统执政特征的概括参见潘亚玲:《美国爱国主义与对外政策》,上海人民出版社,2008年版;潘亚玲:《应对霸权衰落:美国中长期战略前瞻》,《美国研究》,2013年第2期。
(2)潘亚玲:《美国政治文化的当代转型》,《美国研究》,2017年第3期,第44~59页。
(1)Carlos L.Yodan,“Explaining Donad Trump's Political Ascendancy,”E-International Relations,March 19,2016,http://www.e-ir.info/2016/03/19/explaining-donald-trumps-politicalascendancy/;Michael Bargo,Jr.,“Trump Reflects Changes in American Culture,”American Thinker,February 22,2016,http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/02/trump_reflects_changes_in_american_culture.html;Jamelle Bouie,“Our Political Culture Doesn't Know What to Do With Trump's Explicit Prejudice,”Slate,July 5,2016,http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/09/graham_cassidy_like_all_obamacare_repeal_is_built_on_lies.html.
(2)有关美国爱国者法案的讨论,可参见智研:《9·11事件后美国反恐立法分析:以〈美国爱国者法案〉为例》,《法制与社会》,2009年第11期,第328~329页。
(1)Cheryl K.Chumley,Police State USA:How Orwell's Nightmare is Becoming Our Reality,(New York:WND Books,2014);Gerry Spence,Police State:How America's Cops Get Away with Murder(New York:St.Martin's Press,2015);John W.Whitehead,A Government of Wolves:The Emerging American Police State(New York:Select Books,2013).
(2)Jim Norman,“Majority in U.S.Now Dissatisfied with Security from Terrorism,”Gallup,January18,2016,http://news.gallup.com/poll/188402/majority-dissatisfied-security-terrorism.aspx.
(3)Angus Maddison,Statistics on World Population,GDP and Per Capita GDP,1-2008 AD,http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm.
(4)Sangeeta Bharadwaj Badal,“Global Economic Stagnation:The Fix,”Gallup,January 31,2017,http://news.gallup.com/businessjournal/203120/global-economic-stagnation-fix.aspx.
(5)Kristen Bialik,“American Deepest in Poverty Lost More Ground in 2016,”Pew Research Center,October 6,2017,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/06/americansdeepest-in-poverty-lost-more-ground-in-2016/.
(1)Frank Newport,“Young,Old in US Plan on Relying More on Social Security,”Gallup,May25,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/211085/nonretirees-rely-social-security.aspx.
(2)Anthony Cilluffo,D'vera Cohn,“10 Demographic Trends Shaping the U.S.and the World in2017,”April 27,2017,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/10-demographic-trends-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world-in-2017/.
(3)V.Lance Tarrance,“How Long Are We Willing to Live with National Anxiety?”Gallup,October 10,2017,http://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/220397/long-willing-livenational-anxiety.aspx.
(4)“U.S.Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone by 2065,”Pew Research Center,September 23,2015,http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wavebrings-59-million-to-u-s-driving-population-growth-and-change-through-2065/ph_2015-09-28_immigration-through-2065-01/.
(1)Sandra L.Colby,Jennifer M.Ortman,“Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S.Population:2014 to 2060,”Current Population Reports,U.S.Census Bureau,March 2015,https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf.
(2)Anthony Cilluffo,D'vera Cohn,“10 Demographic Trends Shaping the U.S.and the World in2017,”April 27,2017,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/10-demographic-trends-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world-in-2017/.
(3)World Development Indicators,World Bank,September,2017,http://databank.worldbank.org/data/.
(4)Ibid.
(1)Fareed Zakaria,The Post-American World:And the Rise of the Rest(London:Penguin,2009);Fareed Zakaria,“The Future of American Power:How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest,”Foreign Affairs,Vol.87,No.3,May/June 2008,pp.18-43.
(2)20世纪60年代初,美国国民生产总值增长率超过4%,但此后一路下跌,20世纪70年代末跌至3%以下,进入21世纪后跌至2%以下。参见安格斯·麦迪森著,伍晓鹰、施发启译:《世界经济千年统计》,北京大学出版社,2009年版,第2章。
(3)Gillian B.White,“Inequality between America's Rich and Poor is at a 30-Year High,”The Atlantic,December 18,2014,http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/12/inequality-between-americas-rich-and-americas-poor-at-30-year-high/383866/.
(1)霍华德·维尔达亚著,娄亚译:《比较政治学导论:概念与过程》,北京大学出版社,2005年版,第70页。
(2)Everett Garll Ladd,Karlyn H.Bowman,What's Wrong:A Survey of American Satisfaction and Complaint(Washington,D.C.:American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research,1998),p.15;Jeffrey M.Jones,“Sharply Fewer Democrats Say They Are Proud to Be Americans,”Gallup,April 3,2017,http://www.gallup.com/poll/207614/sharply-fewerdemocrats-say-proud-americans.aspx?g_source=proud+to+be+an+american&g_medium=search&g_campaign=tiles.
(3)Tom Engelhardt,The United States of Fear(Chicago:Haymarket Books,2011),p.19.
(1)萨拉·贾菲对此做了深度调查。参见Sarah Jaffe,Necessary Trouble:American in Revolt(New York:Nation Books,2016)。
(2)Seth McL aughlin,“Trump Train Derails Tea Party Movement,”The Washington Times,August3,2016,http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/3/tea-party-pushed-to-the-sideby-trump-juggernaut/;David M.Drucker,“Tea Party Sours on Donald Trump,”Washington Examiner,July 19,2015,http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tea-party-sours-on-donaldtrump/article/2568552.
(3)Blake Fleetwood,“Donald Trump Channels Occupy Wall Street,and The Revolt Against The Ruling Elite,”The Huffington Post,September 26,2015,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/blake-fleetwood/donald-trump-channels-occ_1_b_8198404.html;Rachel Marsden,“Trump Is Succeeding Where Occupy Wall Street Failed,”Townhall,March 2,2016,http://townhall.com/columnists/rachelmarsden/2016/03/02/trump-is-succeeding-where-occupy-wallstreet-failed-n2127164.
(4)D.Easton,A System Analysis of Political Life(Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1965),p.193.
(1)“Political Polarization in the American Public,”Pew Research Center,June 12,2014,http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/.
(2)Ibid.
(3)有关美国地方政府参与气候外交的讨论,可参见潘亚玲:《美国气候外交中的地方参与》,《美国研究》,2015年第5期,第74~90页。
(4)Megan Brenan,“Dissatisfaction with Government,Direction of U.S.Persists,”Gallup,October19,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/220703/dissatisfaction-government-direction-persist.aspx?g_source=GOVERNMENT&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles.
(1)“Supreme Court/Judiciary,”Polling Report,October 25,2017,http://www.pollingreport.com/court.htm.
(2)Art Swift,“Majority in U.S.Say Federal Government Has Too Much Power,”Gallup,October5,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/220199/majority-say-federal-government-power.aspx?g_source=position4&g_medium=related&g_campaign=tiles.
(1)潘亚玲:《从熔炉到战场:美国政党重组中的族裔角色》,《国际关系研究》,2016年第6期,第16~33页。
(2)Frank Newport,“Americans Favor Compromise to Get Things Done in Washington,”Gallup,October 9,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-thingsdone-washington.aspx?g_source=GOVERNMENT&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles.
(3)Jim Norman,“Public Still Prefers One-Party Control to Divided Government,”Gallup,September 27,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/219968/public-prefers-one-party-controldivided-government.aspx?g_source=GOVERNMENT&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles.
(1)Bill Chappell,“Dutch Election Is Underway,In Latest Test Of Populist Nationalism,”NPR,March 15,2017,http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/15/520246151/dutchelection-is-under-way-in-latest-test-of-populist-nationalism;《荷兰大选在即,民粹主义会得势吗?》,《解放日报》,2017年2月16日。
(2)Greg Palkot,“Netherlands Election Tests Populism in Europe as‘Dutch Trump’Causes Stir,”Fox News,March 15,2017,http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/15/netherlandselection-tests-populism-in-europe-as-dutch-trump-causes-stir.html;Nick Vos,“Dutch Treat:The General Election of March 2017 and the Populist Vote,”Brooklyn Rail,June 1,2017,http://brooklynrail.org/2017/06/field-notes/Dutch-Treat-The-General-Election-of-March-2017-and-the-Populist-Vote.
(1)菲利普·斯蒂芬斯:《法国能否扭转民粹主义浪潮?》,FT中文网,2017年2月6日。参见http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001071246。
(1)Kim Soffen,Denise Lu,“What Trump Cut in His Agency Budgets,”The Washington Post,May23,2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-presidential-budget-2018-proposal/?utm_term=.d944833be581#dept-13;Tal Kopan,“Here's What Trump's Budget Proposes to Cut,”CNN Politics,March 16,2017,http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politics/trump-budget-cuts/index.html.
(1)Guido van Meersbergen,Megan Dee,“Trump,Twitter and Diplomacy,”Warwick Knowledge Centre,January 31,2017,https://www2.warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/knowledge/twitterdiplomacy/;Maya Kosoff,“Trump's Twitter Obsession is a Diplomatic Nightmare,”Vanity Fair,December 13,2016,https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/12/trumps-twitterobsession-is-a-diplomatic-nightmare.
(2)潘亚玲:《美国政治文化的当代转型》,《美国研究》,2017年第3期,第44~59页。
(1)Carlos L.Yodan,“Explaining Donad Trump's Political Ascendancy,”E-International Relations,March 19,2016,http://www.e-ir.info/2016/03/19/explaining-donald-trumps-politicalascendancy/;Michael Bargo,Jr.,“Trump Reflects Changes in American Culture,”American Thinker,February 22,2016,http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/02/trump_reflects_changes_in_american_culture.html;Jamelle Bouie,“Our Political Culture Doesn't Know What to Do With Trump's Explicit Prejudice,”Slate,July 5,2016,http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/09/graham_cassidy_like_all_obamacare_repeal_is_built_on_lies.html.
(2)有关美国爱国者法案的讨论,可参见智研:《9·11事件后美国反恐立法分析:以〈美国爱国者法案〉为例》,《法制与社会》,2009年第11期,第328~329页。
(1)Cheryl K.Chumley,Police State USA:How Orwell's Nightmare is Becoming Our Reality,(New York:WND Books,2014);Gerry Spence,Police State:How America's Cops Get Away with Murder(New York:St.Martin's Press,2015);John W.Whitehead,A Government of Wolves:The Emerging American Police State(New York:Select Books,2013).
(2)Jim Norman,“Majority in U.S.Now Dissatisfied with Security from Terrorism,”Gallup,January18,2016,http://news.gallup.com/poll/188402/majority-dissatisfied-security-terrorism.aspx.
(3)Angus Maddison,Statistics on World Population,GDP and Per Capita GDP,1-2008 AD,http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm.
(4)Sangeeta Bharadwaj Badal,“Global Economic Stagnation:The Fix,”Gallup,January 31,2017,http://news.gallup.com/businessjournal/203120/global-economic-stagnation-fix.aspx.
(5)Kristen Bialik,“American Deepest in Poverty Lost More Ground in 2016,”Pew Research Center,October 6,2017,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/06/americansdeepest-in-poverty-lost-more-ground-in-2016/.
(1)Frank Newport,“Young,Old in US Plan on Relying More on Social Security,”Gallup,May25,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/211085/nonretirees-rely-social-security.aspx.
(2)Anthony Cilluffo,D'vera Cohn,“10 Demographic Trends Shaping the U.S.and the World in2017,”April 27,2017,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/10-demographic-trends-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world-in-2017/.
(3)V.Lance Tarrance,“How Long Are We Willing to Live with National Anxiety?”Gallup,October 10,2017,http://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/220397/long-willing-livenational-anxiety.aspx.
(4)“U.S.Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone by 2065,”Pew Research Center,September 23,2015,http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/modern-immigration-wavebrings-59-million-to-u-s-driving-population-growth-and-change-through-2065/ph_2015-09-28_immigration-through-2065-01/.
(1)Sandra L.Colby,Jennifer M.Ortman,“Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S.Population:2014 to 2060,”Current Population Reports,U.S.Census Bureau,March 2015,https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf.
(2)Anthony Cilluffo,D'vera Cohn,“10 Demographic Trends Shaping the U.S.and the World in2017,”April 27,2017,http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/10-demographic-trends-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world-in-2017/.
(3)World Development Indicators,World Bank,September,2017,http://databank.worldbank.org/data/.
(4)Ibid.
(1)Fareed Zakaria,The Post-American World:And the Rise of the Rest(London:Penguin,2009);Fareed Zakaria,“The Future of American Power:How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest,”Foreign Affairs,Vol.87,No.3,May/June 2008,pp.18-43.
(2)20世纪60年代初,美国国民生产总值增长率超过4%,但此后一路下跌,20世纪70年代末跌至3%以下,进入21世纪后跌至2%以下。参见安格斯·麦迪森著,伍晓鹰、施发启译:《世界经济千年统计》,北京大学出版社,2009年版,第2章。
(3)Gillian B.White,“Inequality between America's Rich and Poor is at a 30-Year High,”The Atlantic,December 18,2014,http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/12/inequality-between-americas-rich-and-americas-poor-at-30-year-high/383866/.
(1)霍华德·维尔达亚著,娄亚译:《比较政治学导论:概念与过程》,北京大学出版社,2005年版,第70页。
(2)Everett Garll Ladd,Karlyn H.Bowman,What's Wrong:A Survey of American Satisfaction and Complaint(Washington,D.C.:American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research,1998),p.15;Jeffrey M.Jones,“Sharply Fewer Democrats Say They Are Proud to Be Americans,”Gallup,April 3,2017,http://www.gallup.com/poll/207614/sharply-fewerdemocrats-say-proud-americans.aspx?g_source=proud+to+be+an+american&g_medium=search&g_campaign=tiles.
(3)Tom Engelhardt,The United States of Fear(Chicago:Haymarket Books,2011),p.19.
(1)萨拉·贾菲对此做了深度调查。参见Sarah Jaffe,Necessary Trouble:American in Revolt(New York:Nation Books,2016)。
(2)Seth McL aughlin,“Trump Train Derails Tea Party Movement,”The Washington Times,August3,2016,http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/3/tea-party-pushed-to-the-sideby-trump-juggernaut/;David M.Drucker,“Tea Party Sours on Donald Trump,”Washington Examiner,July 19,2015,http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tea-party-sours-on-donaldtrump/article/2568552.
(3)Blake Fleetwood,“Donald Trump Channels Occupy Wall Street,and The Revolt Against The Ruling Elite,”The Huffington Post,September 26,2015,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/blake-fleetwood/donald-trump-channels-occ_1_b_8198404.html;Rachel Marsden,“Trump Is Succeeding Where Occupy Wall Street Failed,”Townhall,March 2,2016,http://townhall.com/columnists/rachelmarsden/2016/03/02/trump-is-succeeding-where-occupy-wallstreet-failed-n2127164.
(4)D.Easton,A System Analysis of Political Life(Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1965),p.193.
(1)“Political Polarization in the American Public,”Pew Research Center,June 12,2014,http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/.
(2)Ibid.
(3)有关美国地方政府参与气候外交的讨论,可参见潘亚玲:《美国气候外交中的地方参与》,《美国研究》,2015年第5期,第74~90页。
(4)Megan Brenan,“Dissatisfaction with Government,Direction of U.S.Persists,”Gallup,October19,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/220703/dissatisfaction-government-direction-persist.aspx?g_source=GOVERNMENT&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles.
(1)“Supreme Court/Judiciary,”Polling Report,October 25,2017,http://www.pollingreport.com/court.htm.
(2)Art Swift,“Majority in U.S.Say Federal Government Has Too Much Power,”Gallup,October5,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/220199/majority-say-federal-government-power.aspx?g_source=position4&g_medium=related&g_campaign=tiles.
(1)潘亚玲:《从熔炉到战场:美国政党重组中的族裔角色》,《国际关系研究》,2016年第6期,第16~33页。
(2)Frank Newport,“Americans Favor Compromise to Get Things Done in Washington,”Gallup,October 9,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-thingsdone-washington.aspx?g_source=GOVERNMENT&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles.
(3)Jim Norman,“Public Still Prefers One-Party Control to Divided Government,”Gallup,September 27,2017,http://news.gallup.com/poll/219968/public-prefers-one-party-controldivided-government.aspx?g_source=GOVERNMENT&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles.
(1)Bill Chappell,“Dutch Election Is Underway,In Latest Test Of Populist Nationalism,”NPR,March 15,2017,http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/15/520246151/dutchelection-is-under-way-in-latest-test-of-populist-nationalism;《荷兰大选在即,民粹主义会得势吗?》,《解放日报》,2017年2月16日。
(2)Greg Palkot,“Netherlands Election Tests Populism in Europe as‘Dutch Trump’Causes Stir,”Fox News,March 15,2017,http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/15/netherlandselection-tests-populism-in-europe-as-dutch-trump-causes-stir.html;Nick Vos,“Dutch Treat:The General Election of March 2017 and the Populist Vote,”Brooklyn Rail,June 1,2017,http://brooklynrail.org/2017/06/field-notes/Dutch-Treat-The-General-Election-of-March-2017-and-the-Populist-Vote.
(1)菲利普·斯蒂芬斯:《法国能否扭转民粹主义浪潮?》,FT中文网,2017年2月6日。参见http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001071246。
(1)Kim Soffen,Denise Lu,“What Trump Cut in His Agency Budgets,”The Washington Post,May23,2017,https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-presidential-budget-2018-proposal/?utm_term=.d944833be581#dept-13;Tal Kopan,“Here's What Trump's Budget Proposes to Cut,”CNN Politics,March 16,2017,http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politics/trump-budget-cuts/index.html.
(1)Guido van Meersbergen,Megan Dee,“Trump,Twitter and Diplomacy,”Warwick Knowledge Centre,January 31,2017,https://www2.warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/knowledge/twitterdiplomacy/;Maya Kosoff,“Trump's Twitter Obsession is a Diplomatic Nightmare,”Vanity Fair,December 13,2016,https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/12/trumps-twitterobsession-is-a-diplomatic-nightmare.