气候变化对我国梭梭潜在分布的影响及不确定性分析
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摘要
梭梭是我国的三级保护植物,对荒漠区的防风固沙和维持荒漠生态系统的平衡具有关键作用。为了认识气候变化对梭梭潜在适宜分布区的影响,本文研究选用最大熵模型,选取12个与梭梭分布有关的环境因子,模拟梭梭当前的潜在分布,并基于17个大气环流模式(GCM)和2种温室气体排放情景(GES),对未来2个时期(2041-2060年,2061-2080年)的潜在分布进行集合预测,然后采用范围变化指数(RCI)与Kappa值,比较不同GCM与GES引起的潜在分布变化,并用双因素方差分析法对预测结果的不确定性来源进行变异分割。结果表明:未来2个时间段梭梭潜在分布范围将分别增加31.3%和39.8%;17个GCM中,GFDL-CM3预测的潜在分布变动最大,INMCM4最小,2种GES中,RCP8.5预测到的变动大于RCP4.5;此外,GCM对预测结果的不确定性贡献大于GES。因此,预测物种未来潜在分布,应避免采用单个GCM,使用多个GCM做集合预测,并进行不确定性分析,以便减小预测结果的不确定性,得到更可靠的结果。
Climate change will lead to changes of distribution and extinction of species. Haloxylon anmodendron is a national three class protection plant in China, which plays a key role in preventing desertification and maintaining the balance of desert ecosystems in desert areas. To explore the impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of Haloxylon anmodendron, we selected 12 environmental factors related to its distribution to forecast the potential habitat in the maximum entropy model(Maxent)under the current climate conditions. We used 17 general circulation models(GCM) and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios(GES) to project future potential distribution at two periods(2041-2060, 2061-2080). To quantify the sources of uncertainty when simulate the potential distribution in the future, the range change index(RCI) and Kappa were used as response variables to forecast the sources of uncertainty by two-way ANOVA. Results indicate that the potential distribution range of Haloxylon anmodendron habitat will increase by 31.3% and 39.8% in the next two periods. In the GCMs, the potential distribution of GFDL-CM3 is the largest, and the INMCM4 is the smallestr. For two GES, the change predicted by RCP8.5 is greater than RCP4.5. In addition, GCM is the major source of uncertainty to the prediction results. Therefore, to predict the future potential distribution of species, a single GCM should be avoided, and multiple GCM should be used to predict the species, and the uncertainty analysis should be carried out to reduce the uncertainty of the prediction results and get more reliable results.
Climate change will lead to changes of distribution and extinction of species. Haloxylon anmodendron is a national three class protection plant in China, which plays a key role in preventing desertification and maintaining the balance of desert ecosystems in desert areas. To explore the impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of Haloxylon anmodendron, we selected 12 environmental factors related to its distribution to forecast the potential habitat in the maximum entropy model(Maxent)under the current climate conditions. We used 17 general circulation models(GCM) and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios(GES) to project future potential distribution at two periods(2041-2060, 2061-2080). To quantify the sources of uncertainty when simulate the potential distribution in the future, the range change index(RCI) and Kappa were used as response variables to forecast the sources of uncertainty by two-way ANOVA. Results indicate that the potential distribution range of Haloxylon anmodendron habitat will increase by 31.3% and 39.8% in the next two periods. In the GCMs, the potential distribution of GFDL-CM3 is the largest, and the INMCM4 is the smallestr. For two GES, the change predicted by RCP8.5 is greater than RCP4.5. In addition, GCM is the major source of uncertainty to the prediction results. Therefore, to predict the future potential distribution of species, a single GCM should be avoided, and multiple GCM should be used to predict the species, and the uncertainty analysis should be carried out to reduce the uncertainty of the prediction results and get more reliable results.
引文
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[22]La Titia Buisson,Wilfried Thuiller,Nicolas Casajus,et al.Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution[J].Global Change Biology,2010,16:1145-1157.
[23]H Visser,T de Nijs.The Map Comparison Kit[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2006,21(3):346-358.
[24]张鸿铎.准噶尔盆地梭梭林型及其特点[J].中国沙漠,1990,10(1):44-52.Zhang H D.The forest type ans its characteristies of the Holoxylon in Junggar Basin in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Desert Research,1990,10(1):41-49.
[25]张景波,王葆芳,郝玉光,等.我国梭梭林地理分布和适应环境及种源变异[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(5):166-171.Zhang J B,Wang B F,Hao Y G,et al.Geographical distribution,suitable environment and provenance variation of Haloxylon ammdendron(C.A.M)Bge in China[J].Journal of Arid and Resources and Environment,2010,24(5):166-171.
[26]王继和,马全林.民勤绿洲人工梭梭林退化现状、特征与恢复对策[J].西北植物学报,2003,23(12):2107-2112.Wang J H,Ma Q L.Study on restoration strategies,characteristics and status of degenerated artificial Haloxylon ammdendron communities at the edge of Minqin oasis[J].Acta Botanica Boreall-Occidentalia Sinica,2003,23(12):2017-2112.
[27]Wang Yunsheng.Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species’potential distribution models[J].Biodiversity Science,2007,15:365.
[28]A Townsend Peterson,Monica Pape?,Jorge Soberón.Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling[J].Ecological Modelling,2008,213(1):63-72.
[29]J M Lobo,A Jimenez-Valverde,R Real.AUC:a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2008,17(2):145-151.
[30]Canran Liu,Matt White,Graeme Newell,et al.Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data[J].Journal of Biogeography,2013,40(4):778-789.
[31]Yong Cao,R Edward De Walt,Jason L Robinson,et al.Using Maxent to model the historic distributions of stonefly species in Illinois streams:The effects of regularization and threshold selections[J].Ecological Modelling,2013,259:30-39.
[32]H K Nenzen,M B Araujo.Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change[J].Ecological Modelling,2011,222:3346-3354.
[33]Conrad Power,Alvin Simms,Roger White.Hierarchical fuzzy pattern matching for the regional comparison of land use maps[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2001,15:77-100.
[34]lex Hagen.Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2003,17:235-249.
[35]Jos Alexandre F.Diniz-Filho,Luis Mauricio Bini,Thiago Fernando Rangel,et al.Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change[J].Ecography,2009,32(6):897-906.
[36]吴建国,吕佳佳.气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(2):199-206.Wu J G,Lv J J.Potential effects of climate change on the distribution and range of arid regions[J].Research of Enviorment Science,2009,22(2):199-206.
[37]马松梅,魏博,李晓辰,罗冲,孙芳芳.气候变化对梭梭植物适宜分布的影响[J].生态学杂志,2017,36(5):1243-1250.Ma S M,Wei B,Li X C,et al.The impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2017,36(5):1243-1250.
[38]Paul Williams,L E E Hannah,Sandy Andelman,et al.Planning for Climate Change:Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae[J].Conservation Biology,2005,19(4):1063-1074.
[39]Olivier Broennimann,Wilfried Thuiller,Greg Hughes,et al.Do geographic distribution,niche property and life form explain plants'vulnerability to global change[J].Global Change Biology,2006,12(6):1079-1093.
[2]张立运.新疆荒漠中的梭梭和白梭梭(下)[J].植物杂志,2002(5):4-5.Zhang L Y.Haloxylon ammodendron and Haloxylon perisicum in Xinjiang desert(part 2)[J].Plants,2002(5):4-5.
[3]郭泉水,王春玲,郭志华,等.我国现存梭梭荒漠植被地理分布及其斑块特征[J].林业科学,2005,41(5):2-7.Guo Q S,Wang C L,Guo Z H,et al.Geographic distribution of existing Haloxylon desert vegetation and its patch character in China[J].Scientia Silva Sinicae,2005,41(5):2-7.
[4]曾晓玲,刘彤,张卫宾,等.古尔班通古特沙漠西部地下水位和水质变化对植被的影响[J].生态学报,2012,32(5):1490-1501.Zeng X L,Liu T,Zhang W B,et al.Variation in groundwater levels and quality and their effects on vegetation in the western Grurbantonggut Derest[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(5):1490-1501.
[5]T L Root,J T Price,K R Hall,et al.Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants[J].Nature,2003,421(6918):57-60.
[6]Melissa Klamt,Ross Thompson,Jenny Davis.Early response of the platypus to climate warming[J].Global Change Biology,2011,17:3011-3018.
[7]Dan Yu,Ming Chen,Zhuocheng Zhou,et al.Global climate change will severely decrease potential distribution of the East Asian coldwater fish Rhynchocypris oxycephalus(Actinopterygii,Cyprinidae)[J].Hydrobiologia,2012(1):23-32
[8]许仲林,彭焕华,彭守璋.物种分布模型的发展及评价方法[J].生态学报,2015,35(2):557-567.Xu Z L,Peng H H,Peng S Z.The development and evaluation of species distribution modeles[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(2):557-567.
[9]刘芳,李晟,李迪强.利用分布有/无数据预测物种空间分布的研究方法综述[J].生态学报,2013,33(22):4827-4835.Liu F,Li S,Li D-Q.The review of method for mapping species spatial diatribution using presence/absence data[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(22):4827-4835.
[10]李国庆,刘长成,刘玉国,等.物种分布模型理论研究进展[J].生态学报,2013,33(16):4827-4835.Li G Q,Liu Z C,Liu Y G,et al.Advances in theoretical of species distribution models[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(16):7047-7057.
[11]Jane Elith,Steven J Phillips,Trevor Hastie,et al.A statistical explanation of Max Ent for ecologists[J].Diversity and Distributions,2011,17(1):43-57
[12]胡理乐,张海英,秦岭,闫伯前.中国五味子分布范围及气候变化影响预测[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(9):2445-2450.Hu L L,Zhang H Y,Qin L,et al.Current distribution of Schisandra chinensis in China and its predicted responses to climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2012,23(9):2445-2450.
[13]P Segurado,M B Araujo.An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions[J].Journal of Biogeography,2004,31:1555-1568.
[14]J Elith,C H Graham,R P Anderson,et al.Novel methods improve prediction of species'distributions from occurrence data[J].Ecography,2006,29(2):129-151.
[15]Carone Maria Teresa,Guisan Antoine,Cianfrani Carmen[J],et al.A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe.The case of the Eurasian otter in Italy[J].Ecological Modelling,2014,274:21-28.
[16]K E Taylor,R J Stouffer,G A Meehl.AN OVERVIEW OF CMIP5 AND THE EXPERIMENT DESIGN[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2012,93(4):485-498.
[17]M B Araujo,R J Whittaker,R J Ladle,et al.Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2005,14:529-538.
[18]Hosseinian Yousefkhani Seyyed Saeed,Ficetola Gentile Francesco,Rastegar-Pouyani Nasrullah,et al.Environmental Suitability and Distribution of the Caucasian Rock Agama,Paralaudakia caucasia(Sauria:Agamidae)in Western and Central Asia[J].Asian Herpetological Research,2013,4(3):207-213.
[19]应凌霄,刘晔,陈绍田,沈泽昊.气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的中国西南地区清香木潜在分布格局模拟[J].生物多样性,2016,24(4):453-461.Ying L X,Liu Y,Chen S.Simulation of the potential range of Pistacia weinmannifolia in Southwest China with climate change based on the maximum-entropy(Maxent)model[J].Biodiversity Science,2016,24(4):453-461.
[20]Nicholas W Synes,Patrick E Osborne.Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2011,20(6):904-914.
[21]张雷,刘世荣,孙鹏森,等.气候变化对马尾松潜在分布影响预估的多模型比较[J].植物生态学报,2011,35(11):1091Zhang L,Liu S R,et al.Comparative evaluation of multiple models of the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Pinus massoniana[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2011,35(11):1091-1105.
[22]La Titia Buisson,Wilfried Thuiller,Nicolas Casajus,et al.Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution[J].Global Change Biology,2010,16:1145-1157.
[23]H Visser,T de Nijs.The Map Comparison Kit[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2006,21(3):346-358.
[24]张鸿铎.准噶尔盆地梭梭林型及其特点[J].中国沙漠,1990,10(1):44-52.Zhang H D.The forest type ans its characteristies of the Holoxylon in Junggar Basin in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Desert Research,1990,10(1):41-49.
[25]张景波,王葆芳,郝玉光,等.我国梭梭林地理分布和适应环境及种源变异[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(5):166-171.Zhang J B,Wang B F,Hao Y G,et al.Geographical distribution,suitable environment and provenance variation of Haloxylon ammdendron(C.A.M)Bge in China[J].Journal of Arid and Resources and Environment,2010,24(5):166-171.
[26]王继和,马全林.民勤绿洲人工梭梭林退化现状、特征与恢复对策[J].西北植物学报,2003,23(12):2107-2112.Wang J H,Ma Q L.Study on restoration strategies,characteristics and status of degenerated artificial Haloxylon ammdendron communities at the edge of Minqin oasis[J].Acta Botanica Boreall-Occidentalia Sinica,2003,23(12):2017-2112.
[27]Wang Yunsheng.Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species’potential distribution models[J].Biodiversity Science,2007,15:365.
[28]A Townsend Peterson,Monica Pape?,Jorge Soberón.Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling[J].Ecological Modelling,2008,213(1):63-72.
[29]J M Lobo,A Jimenez-Valverde,R Real.AUC:a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models[J].Global Ecology and Biogeography,2008,17(2):145-151.
[30]Canran Liu,Matt White,Graeme Newell,et al.Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data[J].Journal of Biogeography,2013,40(4):778-789.
[31]Yong Cao,R Edward De Walt,Jason L Robinson,et al.Using Maxent to model the historic distributions of stonefly species in Illinois streams:The effects of regularization and threshold selections[J].Ecological Modelling,2013,259:30-39.
[32]H K Nenzen,M B Araujo.Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change[J].Ecological Modelling,2011,222:3346-3354.
[33]Conrad Power,Alvin Simms,Roger White.Hierarchical fuzzy pattern matching for the regional comparison of land use maps[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2001,15:77-100.
[34]lex Hagen.Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2003,17:235-249.
[35]Jos Alexandre F.Diniz-Filho,Luis Mauricio Bini,Thiago Fernando Rangel,et al.Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change[J].Ecography,2009,32(6):897-906.
[36]吴建国,吕佳佳.气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(2):199-206.Wu J G,Lv J J.Potential effects of climate change on the distribution and range of arid regions[J].Research of Enviorment Science,2009,22(2):199-206.
[37]马松梅,魏博,李晓辰,罗冲,孙芳芳.气候变化对梭梭植物适宜分布的影响[J].生态学杂志,2017,36(5):1243-1250.Ma S M,Wei B,Li X C,et al.The impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2017,36(5):1243-1250.
[38]Paul Williams,L E E Hannah,Sandy Andelman,et al.Planning for Climate Change:Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae[J].Conservation Biology,2005,19(4):1063-1074.
[39]Olivier Broennimann,Wilfried Thuiller,Greg Hughes,et al.Do geographic distribution,niche property and life form explain plants'vulnerability to global change[J].Global Change Biology,2006,12(6):1079-1093.