基础研究政策体系对基础研究投入的动态影响——基于政策执行视角
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摘要
评估基础研究政策对基础研究投入的有效性,改善基础投入不足的现状及完善基础研究政策意义重大。依托COPA政策分析框架,通过对我国1972—2017年的276条基础研究政策进行文本挖掘、社会网络分析以及向量自回归,构建了基础研究政策的行政年历,分析了基础研究政策COPA框架的演化规律及其对基础研究投入的动态影响。结果表明:我国基础研究政策内容侧重项目管理和人才培养忽视设施建设,形式以效力较低的通知、办法居多,力度有待提高。实证结果表明,基础研究核心政策COPA框架对基础研究投入影响显著,项目管理及人才培养对其影响逐渐减小,政策形式、力度及国务院反之,针对性改进COPA 4方面有利于解决基础研究投入总量不足而导致的原创性成果不足的现状。
It is of great significance to evaluate the effectiveness of basic research policy to improve the current situation of insufficient basic research investment in China and the government to perfect the basic research policy. Based on the framework of COPA policy analysis, by means of text mining, social network analysis and vector auto-regression analysis of 276 basic research policies in China from 1972 to 2017, it constructs the administrative calendar of basic research policy, analyzes the evolution law of COPA framework of basic research policy and evaluates its dynamic influence on basic research investment. The results show that the basic research policy focuses on project management and talent training but neglects the construction of facilities, policy form is mostly consisted of less effective notice and method, and policy efforts need to be improved. The empirical results show that the COPA framework of basic research core policy has a significant impact on basic research investment, and the impact of project management and talent training on basic research investment has a downward trend while State Council has an increasing trend, so COPA are helpful to solve the problem of insufficient original achievements caused by the insufficient investment in basic research in China.
It is of great significance to evaluate the effectiveness of basic research policy to improve the current situation of insufficient basic research investment in China and the government to perfect the basic research policy. Based on the framework of COPA policy analysis, by means of text mining, social network analysis and vector auto-regression analysis of 276 basic research policies in China from 1972 to 2017, it constructs the administrative calendar of basic research policy, analyzes the evolution law of COPA framework of basic research policy and evaluates its dynamic influence on basic research investment. The results show that the basic research policy focuses on project management and talent training but neglects the construction of facilities, policy form is mostly consisted of less effective notice and method, and policy efforts need to be improved. The empirical results show that the COPA framework of basic research core policy has a significant impact on basic research investment, and the impact of project management and talent training on basic research investment has a downward trend while State Council has an increasing trend, so COPA are helpful to solve the problem of insufficient original achievements caused by the insufficient investment in basic research in China.
引文
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李牧南.2018.技术预见研究热点的演进分析:内容挖掘视角[J].科研管理,(3):141-153.
李梓涵昕,朱桂龙,刘奥林.2015.中韩两国技术创新政策对比研究:政策目标、政策工具和政策执行维度[J].科学学与科学技术管理,(4):3-13.
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吴彤,李正风,曾国屏.2002.基础研究评价与国家目标[J].科学学研究,(4):343-347.
谢青,田志龙.2015.创新政策如何推动我国新能源汽车产业的发展:基于政策工具与创新价值链的政策文本分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,(6):3-14.
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Pearce P,Slade R.2018.Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration:Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model[J].Energy Policy,(116):95-111.
Pinherro C.2011.Social Network Analysis in Telecommuni-Cations[M].New Jersey:Wiley.
Rijnsoever F,Berg J,Koch J,et al.2015.Smart innovation policy:How network position and project composition affect the diversity of an emerging technology[J].Research Policy,44(5):1094-1107.
Rothwell R,Zegveld W.1985.Reindusdalization and Technology[M].London:Longman Group Limited.
丁大尉,李正风,高璐.2015.后金融危机时代国外基础科学研究政策的战略转向及启示[J].中国软科学,(2):65-73.
黄萃,苏竣,施丽萍.2011.政策工具视角的中国风能政策文本量化研究[J].科学学研究,(6):876-882.
李牧南.2018.技术预见研究热点的演进分析:内容挖掘视角[J].科研管理,(3):141-153.
李梓涵昕,朱桂龙,刘奥林.2015.中韩两国技术创新政策对比研究:政策目标、政策工具和政策执行维度[J].科学学与科学技术管理,(4):3-13.
刘作仪.2003.基础研究评价若干问题的认识[J].科学学研究,(4):373-377.
彭纪生,仲为国,孙文祥.2008.政策测量、政策协同演变与经济绩效:基于创新政策的实证研究[J].管理世界,(9):25-36.
宋志红,史玉英,李冬梅.2014.学术论文质量特征对明星作者网络位置的影响:以1990-2012年“创新网络”领域的文献为例[J].科学学研究,32(5):660-668.
万劲波,赵兰香.2009.基础研究政策评价的基本前提探讨[J].科学学与科学技术管理,30(5):5-11.
王利政.2011.我国基础研究经费来源分析及政策建议[J].科学学与科学技术管理,(12):26-31.
王晓珍,彭志刚,高伟,等.2016.我国风电产业政策演进与效果评价[J].科学学研究,(12):1817-1829.
吴彤,李正风,曾国屏.2002.基础研究评价与国家目标[J].科学学研究,(4):343-347.
谢青,田志龙.2015.创新政策如何推动我国新能源汽车产业的发展:基于政策工具与创新价值链的政策文本分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,(6):3-14.
张炜,吴建南,徐萌萌,等.2016.基础研究投入:政策缺陷与认识误区[J].科研管理,(5):87-93.
张艺,陈凯华,朱桂龙.2016.中国科学院产学研合作网络特征与影响[J].科学学研究,(3):404-417.
Abbasi A,Altmann J,Hossain L.2011.Identifying the effects of co-authorship networks on the performance of scholars:Acorrelation and regression analysis of performance measures and social network analysis measures[J].Journal of Informetrics,5(4):594-607.
Banbura M,Vlodrop A V.2018.Forecasting with bayesian vector autoregressions with time variation in the mean[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,3(25):1-52.
Burt R S.1992.Structural Holes:The Social Structure of Competition[M].Boston:Harvard University Press.
Dieppe A,Legrand R,Van Roye B.1934.The Bayesian Estimation,Analysis and Regression(BEAR)Toolbox[D].Frankfurt:European Central Bank,Working Paper Series 2016.
Freeman L C.1979.Centrality in social networks notional clarification[J].Social Networks,1(3):215-239.
Granovetter M S.1973.The Strength of Weak Ties[J].American Journal of Sociology,78(6):1361-1364.
Guns R,Rousseau R.2015.Unnormalized and normalized forms of gefura measures in directed and undirected networks[J].Frontiers of Information Technology&Electronic Engineering,16(4):311-320.
Huang C,Su J,Xie X,et al.2015.A bibliometric study of China's science and technology policies:1949-2010[J].Scientometrics,102(2):1521-1539.
Pearce P,Slade R.2018.Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration:Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model[J].Energy Policy,(116):95-111.
Pinherro C.2011.Social Network Analysis in Telecommuni-Cations[M].New Jersey:Wiley.
Rijnsoever F,Berg J,Koch J,et al.2015.Smart innovation policy:How network position and project composition affect the diversity of an emerging technology[J].Research Policy,44(5):1094-1107.
Rothwell R,Zegveld W.1985.Reindusdalization and Technology[M].London:Longman Group Limited.