基于QUAL2K模型的鹤壁卫河水质模拟预警研究
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摘要
水质预报预警对于防范水污染、降低水污染风险及其带来的损失、保障用水安全及水环境质量等具有重大意义。提出了一种基于QUAL2K模型的水质模拟预警方法,包括水质模拟预测、预警指数计算和警情确定,以海河流域鹤壁市卫河为例进行实证研究。研究结果表明:基于QUAL2K模型模拟精度分别为COD 97.7%、NH_3-N 98.5%,水质模拟效果较好;所选河段预警时段内COD基本处于无警和轻警2个级别,氨氮大多是巨警,浓度严重超标,是导致监测断面预警指数高的主要原因。
Water quality forecasting and early warning is of great significance to prevent water pollution, reduce the risk of water pollution and its loss, and ensure water safety and water quality. The water quality forecasting and early warning method based on QUAL2 K model was put forward, simulating and forecasting of the water quality, including simulation and prediction of water quality, calculation of early warning index, and determination of warning situation. Taking the Hebi Wei River in Haihe Basin as an example, the results showed that: the simulation accuracy of COD and NH_3-N based on QUAL2 K model was 97.7% and 98.5%, and the effect of water quality simulation was better; during the warning period of the selected river, the COD sounded normal or a little alert, while the concentration of ammonia nitrogen was seriously exceeded, which was the main reaseon for the high alert index in the study area.
Water quality forecasting and early warning is of great significance to prevent water pollution, reduce the risk of water pollution and its loss, and ensure water safety and water quality. The water quality forecasting and early warning method based on QUAL2 K model was put forward, simulating and forecasting of the water quality, including simulation and prediction of water quality, calculation of early warning index, and determination of warning situation. Taking the Hebi Wei River in Haihe Basin as an example, the results showed that: the simulation accuracy of COD and NH_3-N based on QUAL2 K model was 97.7% and 98.5%, and the effect of water quality simulation was better; during the warning period of the selected river, the COD sounded normal or a little alert, while the concentration of ammonia nitrogen was seriously exceeded, which was the main reaseon for the high alert index in the study area.
引文
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[2] SHU Y L,JIAN H T,LEI Y. Research and Application of Real-Time Remote Monitoring and Early Warning System of Source Water Quality [J].Advanced Materials Research, 2013, 2592 (779):1 408-1 413.
[3] 李文攀,周密,白雪,等. 集中式饮用水水源地水质预警指标体系构建[J].中国环境监测,2016,32(1):128-132.LI Wenpan, ZHOU Mi, BAI Xue, et al. Research on Water Quality Early-Warning Index System of Drinking Water Source Area[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2016,32(1):128-132.
[4] 计红,韩龙喜,刘军英.水质预警研究发展探讨[J].水资源保护,2011,27(5):39-42.JI Hong, HAN Longxi, LIU Junying. Study on Water Quality Early Warning[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2011,27(5):39-42.
[5] JANI T, ESKO J, KAUKO L. Early Warning of Changing Drinking Water Quality by Trend Analysis[J]. Journal of Water and Health,2016,14(3): 433-442.
[6] BOTTERWEG T, RODDA D W. Danube River Basin: Progress with the Environmental Programme[J]. Water Science and Technology, 1999,40(10):1-8.
[7] 马中雨,陈家全,陈兴厅,等.斑马鱼对水源特定污染物的水质监测预警[J]. 中国环境监测,2015,31(1):146-151.MA Zhongyu, CHEN Jiaquan, CHEN Xingting, et al. Study of Zebrafish for the Source Water Quality Early Warning Experiment with Special Pollutants[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2015,31(1):146-151.
[8] 王巍巍,武延坤,朱佳.基于神经网络的水库藻类预警模型研究[J].给水排水,2015,52(11):103-105.WANG Weiwei, WU Yankun, ZHU Jia. Warning Model of Algae in Reservoir Based Neural Network[J]. Water & Wastewater Engineering,2015,54(11):103-105.
[9] 胡琳,卢卫,张正康.MIKE11模型在东苕溪水源地水质预警及保护的应用[J]. 水动力学研究与进展A辑,2016,33(1):28-36.HU Lin, LU Wei, ZHANG Zhengkang. Application of Mike11 Model in Water Quality Early-Warning and Protection in Dong Tiaoxi Water Source[J]. Journal of Hydrodynamics,2016,33(1):28-36.
[10] 李林子,钱瑜,张玉超. 基于EFDC和WASP模型的突发水污染事故影响的预测预警[J]. 长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(8):1 010-1 016.LI Linzi, QIAN Yu, ZHANG Yuchao. Forecasting and Warning the Accidental Water Pollution Effect Based on the Efdc and Wasp. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2011,20(8):1 010-1 016.
[11] 方晓波,张建英,陈伟.基于QUAL2K模型的钱塘江流域安全纳污能力研究[J]. 环境科学学报,2007,27(8):1 402-1 407.FANG Xiaobo, ZHANG Jianying, CHEN Wei. Assimilative Capacity of the Qiantang River Watershed based on a Qual2k Model[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2007,27(8):1 402-1 407.
[12] KALBURGI P B, SHAREEFA R N, DESHANNAVAR U B. Development and Evaluation of Bod-do Model for River Ghataprabha Near Mudhol,using Qual2k[J]. IJEM-International Journal of Engineering and Manufacturing,2015,5(1): 15-25.
[13] RUIBIN Z, XIN Q, XINGCHENG Y, et al.Simulation of Water Environmental Capacity and Pollution Load Reduction using Qual2k for Water Environmental Management[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2012, 9(12):4 504-4 521.
[14] GUO S, LI F, LI G. Water Quality Evaluation in Tidal River Reaches of Liaohe River Estuary, China Using a Revised Qual2k Model[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2013,23(3):301-311.
[15] HADGU L T, NYADAWA M O, MWANGI J K, et al. Application of Water Quality Model Qual2k to Model the Dispersion of Pollutants in River Ndarugu,Kenya[J]. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 2014, 3(4):162-169.
[16] 谭立波,许东.辽河流域水环境预警研究[J]. 中国农学通报,2014,30(35):154-157.TAN Libo, XU Dong. Research on Water Environment Forewarning for Liaohe River Basin[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2014,30(35):154-157.
[17] 王瑞梅,何有缘,傅泽田. 淡水养殖池塘水质预警模型[J]. 吉林农业大学学报,2011,33(1):84-88,92.WANG Ruimei, HE Youyuan, FU Zetian. Water Quality Early-Warning Models in Aquaculture Pond[J]. Journal of Jilin Agricultural University, 2011,33(1):84-88,92.
[18] CHEN Q W, MA J F, WANG Z J, et al. Biological Early Warning and Emergency Management Support System for Water Pollution Accident[J]. Transactions of Tianjin University,2012,18(3):201-205.