日本碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线研究——基于VEC模型和Chow's检验的分析
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摘要
应用环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,运用VEC模型和Chow’s检验对日本1971—2014年人均碳排放、人均GDP和对外直接投资之间的关系进行了整体与分阶段检验。研究表明:从整体看,该期间的碳排放库兹涅茨曲线呈正"N"型;但1971-1993年的碳排放库兹涅茨曲线呈倒"U"型,而1993—2006年则呈正"U"型,1993—2014年则没有得到明显的库兹涅茨曲线。对外直接投资和人均GDP对碳排放具有正向影响,且长期效果大于短期效果。日本的东亚雁行国际分工模式、较完备的环境法律体系、积极的节能减排政策和较强的环保意识使日本实现了经济增长与碳排放脱钩。中国应落实好可持续发展战略,升级国内产业结构,发展新能源技术,完善低碳发展的法律体系,树立低碳发展理念,尽早步入低碳社会。
By using Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, VEC model and chow's test, this paper examines the long-run and short-run,overall and stage relationship between per capita carbon emissions,per capita GDP and foreign direct investment from1971 to 2014 in Japan. The result shows the existence of a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables. On the whole, Japan's carbon emission Kuznets curve is positive"N"type during this time. But the carbon emission Kuznets curve is inverted"U'shaped from 1971 to 1993, the curve is positive"U"type from 1993-2006 and there is no apparent Kuznets curve from 1993 to 2014. The impact of FDIand per capita GDP on carbon emission are positive, and the long-term effect is greater than the short-term. Japan‘s East Asia flying geese pattern of international division of labor, comprehensive environmental legal system, an active energy saving policy and strong environmental awareness make Japan realize the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions.China should implement the strategy of sustainable development, adjust and optimize the domestic industrial structure, actively develop new energy, improve the legal system for low carbon development and establish a low-carbon development conceptin order to come into a low-carbon society as soon as possible.
By using Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, VEC model and chow's test, this paper examines the long-run and short-run,overall and stage relationship between per capita carbon emissions,per capita GDP and foreign direct investment from1971 to 2014 in Japan. The result shows the existence of a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables. On the whole, Japan's carbon emission Kuznets curve is positive"N"type during this time. But the carbon emission Kuznets curve is inverted"U'shaped from 1971 to 1993, the curve is positive"U"type from 1993-2006 and there is no apparent Kuznets curve from 1993 to 2014. The impact of FDIand per capita GDP on carbon emission are positive, and the long-term effect is greater than the short-term. Japan‘s East Asia flying geese pattern of international division of labor, comprehensive environmental legal system, an active energy saving policy and strong environmental awareness make Japan realize the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions.China should implement the strategy of sustainable development, adjust and optimize the domestic industrial structure, actively develop new energy, improve the legal system for low carbon development and establish a low-carbon development conceptin order to come into a low-carbon society as soon as possible.
引文
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[14]王倩,何少琛.中日碳排放库兹涅茨曲线对比研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2015(5):108-113.
[2]Panayotou T.Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development[R].Working Paper WP238.Geneva:International Labor Office,1993.
[3]Jalil A.,Mahmud S.F.,“Environment Kuznets Curve for CO2Emissions:A Cointegration Analysis for China,”Energy Policy,vol.37,no.12(2009),pp.5 167-5 172.
[4]Galeotti M.,Lanza A.,Pauli F.,“Reassessing the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emissions:A Robustness Exercise,”Ecological Economics,vol.57.no.1(2006),pp,152-163.
[5]Sahar Shafiei,Ruhul A.Salim,“Non-renewable and Renewable Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in OECD Countries:A Comparative Analysis,”Energy Policy,vol.66,no.3(2014),pp.547-556.
[6]Dinda S.,“Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:a Survey,”Ecological Economics,vol.49,no.4(2004,)pp.431-455.
[7]Holtz Eakin D.,Selden T.M.,“Stoking the Fires?CO2Emissionsand Economic Growth,”Journal of Public Economics,vol.57,no.1(1995),pp.85-101;Cole M.A.,Rayner A.J.,Bates J.M.,“The Environmental Kuznets Curve:an Empirical Analysis,”Environmentand Development Economics,vol.4,no.2(1997),pp.401-416.
[8]Friedl B.,Getzner M.,“Determinants of CO2 Emissions in a Small Open Economy,”Ecological Economics,v ol.45,no.1(2003),pp.133-148.
[9]Martinez-Zarzoso I.,Bengochea-Morancho A.,“Pooled Mean Group Estimation of an Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2,”Economics Letters,vol.82,no.1(2004),pp.121-126.
[10]Wagner M.,“The Carbon Kuznets Curve:a Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?”Resourceand Energy Economics,vol.30,no.3(2008),pp.388-408.
[11]Lantz V.,Feng Q.,“Assessing Income,Population,and Technology Impacts on CO2 Emissions in Canada:Where’s the EKC?”Ecological Economics,vol.57,no.2(2006),pp.229-238.
[12]张宝珍.日本经济高速增长时期的环境污染问题[J].世界经济,1985(9):54-60.
[13]刘姝含.经济增长与环境质量[D].南京:南京大学,2012.
[14]王倩,何少琛.中日碳排放库兹涅茨曲线对比研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2015(5):108-113.