1961-2016年乌鲁木齐市降水量时空变化
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摘要
为明确乌鲁木齐市降水量变化特点,基于乌鲁木齐市及其周边9个气象站1961-2016年逐月降水量资料,使用统计学方法以及ArcGIS的空间插值技术,对1961-2016年乌鲁木齐市降水量时空变化规律进行了研究分析。结果表明,乌鲁木齐市降水量的年内分布呈单峰型,峰值多出现在5～7月,且随海拔高度的升高,降水峰值月推迟、降水的年内不均衡性增大;1961-2016年乌鲁木齐市春(3～5月)、夏(6～8月)、秋(9～11月)、冬(12～2月)季降水量分别以4.19、5.32、1.04、3.25 mm/10a的倾向率增多,受其影响1961-2016年全市平均年降水量以13.87 mm/10a的倾向率呈极显著(P<0.01)的增多趋势, 1961-2016年增多了77.7 mm,但各地变化具有明显的区域性差异;乌鲁木齐市年降水量的空间分布总体呈现"平原和盆(谷)地少,山区多"的特点。1991-2016年较1961-1990年乌鲁木齐市中、高山带降水增多40～80 mm,平原地区增多20～40 mm,受其影响,山区年降水量多于450 mm的半湿润气候区明显扩大,平原地区年降水量不足200 mm的干旱气候区明显缩小。
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 9 meteorological stations in Urumqi city and its surroundings area from 1961 to 2016, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of precipitation were analyzed by using the methods of statistical method and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. The main results showed that the distribution of annual precipitation in Urumqi presented single peak type,most of which occurred from May and July,with the increase of altitude,the peak month of precipitation was gradually delayed,and the unbalance of precipitation increased gradually during the year. Precipitation in spring, summer, autumn and winter increased at the rate of 4.19 mm/10 a,5.32 mm/10 a,1.04 mm/10 a and 3.25 mm/10 a,respectively.Affected by it, the annual precipitation in the past 56 years showed a significant increase in the rate of 13.87 mm/10 a(P<0.01), from 1961 to 2016, annual precipitation increased by 77.7 mm,but the change had regional differences. Spatial distribution of annual precipitation differed very obviously from place to place in Urumqi area,generally,less in plain and basin area and more in mountains.The precipitation in the alpine belt increased by 40/80 mm and by 20-40 mm in plain area from 1991 to 2016 compared with that in Urumqi from 1961 to 1990. And affected by it, the semi-humid climate area with annual precipitation of more than 450 mm in mountainous areas was significantly enlarged, and the arid climate area with less than 200 mm of annual precipitation in plain area reduced significantly.
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 9 meteorological stations in Urumqi city and its surroundings area from 1961 to 2016, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of precipitation were analyzed by using the methods of statistical method and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. The main results showed that the distribution of annual precipitation in Urumqi presented single peak type,most of which occurred from May and July,with the increase of altitude,the peak month of precipitation was gradually delayed,and the unbalance of precipitation increased gradually during the year. Precipitation in spring, summer, autumn and winter increased at the rate of 4.19 mm/10 a,5.32 mm/10 a,1.04 mm/10 a and 3.25 mm/10 a,respectively.Affected by it, the annual precipitation in the past 56 years showed a significant increase in the rate of 13.87 mm/10 a(P<0.01), from 1961 to 2016, annual precipitation increased by 77.7 mm,but the change had regional differences. Spatial distribution of annual precipitation differed very obviously from place to place in Urumqi area,generally,less in plain and basin area and more in mountains.The precipitation in the alpine belt increased by 40/80 mm and by 20-40 mm in plain area from 1991 to 2016 compared with that in Urumqi from 1961 to 1990. And affected by it, the semi-humid climate area with annual precipitation of more than 450 mm in mountainous areas was significantly enlarged, and the arid climate area with less than 200 mm of annual precipitation in plain area reduced significantly.
引文
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[11] 施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
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[2] 李峰平,章光新,董李勤.气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述[J].地理科学,2013,33(4):457-464.
[3] 普宗朝,张山清,宾建华,等.新疆乌-昌地区干湿气候要素时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2314-2322.
[4] 普宗朝,张山清.新疆水分亏缺量时空变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(4):802-812.
[5] 普宗朝,张山清,王胜兰,等.近48a新疆干湿气候时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1563-1572.
[6] 刘惠云,王晓梅,肖书君,等.乌鲁木齐市近40多年降水演变特征[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(6):785-789.
[7] 郑新倩,李新建,杨帆,等.1961-2010年乌鲁木齐降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(11):178-184.
[8] 张山清,普宗朝,王胜兰.乌鲁木齐河流域降水量时空变化特征[J].新疆农业大学学报,2011,34(1):66-70.
[9] 张山清,普宗朝.基于DEM的乌鲁木齐河流域降水量时空变化分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(3):437-443.
[10] 普宗朝,张山清,杨琳,等.1961-2008年新疆克拉玛依市气候变化分析[J].新疆农业大学学报,2009,32(1):55-60.
[11] 施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[12] 李景林,普宗朝,张山清.气候变化对新疆农业的影响及区划[M].北京:气象出版社,2018.
[13] 普宗朝,张山清,瓦哈提,等.近56年乌鲁木齐市青草期水热气候条件时空变化[J].草业科学,2018,35(7):1602-1613.