CO_2排放峰值问题探究:国别比较、历史经验与研究进展
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摘要
作为我国气候变化治理的关键目标,CO_2排放峰值问题备受研究者关注。在比较分析世界主要发达国家CO_2排放历史趋势、达峰时间与达峰时各国社会经济状况的基础上,对我国整体和部分省市的CO_2排放达峰情况进行了研判,梳理总结了有关研究成果。研究发现:世界主要发达国家CO_2排放峰值分为3种类型,我国CO_2排放可能会经历波动型峰值,达峰时间将在2030年前出现;理论界已使用了至少16种峰值预测方法,对CO_2排放影响因素的不同理解构成了这些方法的主要差异;我国学术界对CO_2排放峰值的研究大致以2014年国家明确达峰目标这一事件为界分成两个阶段;基于不同省份的多项实证研究表明,我国各省市CO_2排放达峰时间表现出明显的区域差异。
As the key goal of China' s climate change governance,the issue of CO_2 emissions peak was attracted much attention from the researchers. This paper studied and judged the conditions of China's CO_2 emissions peak as well as some provinces and cities through a comparative analysis of the historical trends of CO_2 emissions,the peak time and the socio-economic conditions of each country at peak of the major developed countries,and summarized the related research results. The results showed that CO_2 emissions peak of the major developed countries could be divided into three types. China' s CO_2 emissions may appear the fluctuating peak and peak before 2030. The theoretical field developed and used at least 16 kinds of methods of CO_2 emissions peak forecasting. The different comprehension of the influencing factors of CO_2 emissions and the differences of corresponding scenarios settings made up the main differences between these methods. The research on China's CO_2 emissions peak could be divided into two stages based on the historical event that the country proposed the peak targets clearly in 2014. The multiple empirical study of different provinces showed that peak time of CO_2 emissions had significant regional differences.
As the key goal of China' s climate change governance,the issue of CO_2 emissions peak was attracted much attention from the researchers. This paper studied and judged the conditions of China's CO_2 emissions peak as well as some provinces and cities through a comparative analysis of the historical trends of CO_2 emissions,the peak time and the socio-economic conditions of each country at peak of the major developed countries,and summarized the related research results. The results showed that CO_2 emissions peak of the major developed countries could be divided into three types. China' s CO_2 emissions may appear the fluctuating peak and peak before 2030. The theoretical field developed and used at least 16 kinds of methods of CO_2 emissions peak forecasting. The different comprehension of the influencing factors of CO_2 emissions and the differences of corresponding scenarios settings made up the main differences between these methods. The research on China's CO_2 emissions peak could be divided into two stages based on the historical event that the country proposed the peak targets clearly in 2014. The multiple empirical study of different provinces showed that peak time of CO_2 emissions had significant regional differences.
引文
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