近60年渤黄海海冰灾害演变特征与经济损失浅析
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摘要
在气候变暖、极端天气气候事件增多及承灾体脆弱性增大背景下,我国海冰灾害呈现出不易预测、破坏性大等新的特点。基于1963-2016年中国沿海海洋站海冰冰情数据及海冰灾害损失数据,分析了我国海冰灾害的变化特征及其影响。结果显示:我国渤海与黄海北部自11月中下旬由北往南开始结冰,各海区冰情存在较大差异。受气候变暖的影响,海冰冰情总体有降低的趋势,同时我国海冰冰情呈现约10年的准周期性特征,且近年来极端天气气候事件的频次和强度不断增加,海冰灾害造成的影响进一步加重, 2010年以来由海冰灾害造成的直接经济损失高达77亿元,其中辽宁、山东两省受海冰灾害影响较为严重。因此,我国未来要进一步重视海冰灾害,增强防灾减灾能力建设,减轻灾害损失。
Against the background of climate warming, increasing extreme weather and climate events and increasing vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, sea ice disasters in China show some new characteristics such as unpredictability and great destruction. Based on the sea ice data and the loss data of sea ice disasters from 1963 to 2016 at China′s coastal ocean stations, the variation characteristics and impacts of sea ice disasters in China are analyzed. The results show that the north of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea begin to freeze from north to south since mid-late November and the ice conditions are quite different in different sea areas. Due to the influence of climate warming, the sea ice situation has a decreasing trend. At the same time, the sea ice situation in China shows a quasi-periodic feature of about 10 years. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events have been increasing so that the impact of sea ice disasters has been further aggravated. Since 2010, the direct economic losses caused by sea ice disasters have reached 7.7 billion Liaoning and shandong provinces suffered most serious disasters. Therefore, China should pay more attention to sea ice disasters,strengthen the capacity building to prevent and mitigate sea disasters, and reduce disaster losses in the future.
Against the background of climate warming, increasing extreme weather and climate events and increasing vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, sea ice disasters in China show some new characteristics such as unpredictability and great destruction. Based on the sea ice data and the loss data of sea ice disasters from 1963 to 2016 at China′s coastal ocean stations, the variation characteristics and impacts of sea ice disasters in China are analyzed. The results show that the north of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea begin to freeze from north to south since mid-late November and the ice conditions are quite different in different sea areas. Due to the influence of climate warming, the sea ice situation has a decreasing trend. At the same time, the sea ice situation in China shows a quasi-periodic feature of about 10 years. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events have been increasing so that the impact of sea ice disasters has been further aggravated. Since 2010, the direct economic losses caused by sea ice disasters have reached 7.7 billion Liaoning and shandong provinces suffered most serious disasters. Therefore, China should pay more attention to sea ice disasters,strengthen the capacity building to prevent and mitigate sea disasters, and reduce disaster losses in the future.
引文
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[3]Francesca de’Donato,Michelozzi P.Climate Change,Extreme Weather Events and Health Effects[M].The Mediterranean Sea.Springer Netherlands,2014.
[4]周群,魏立新,黄焕卿.秋季巴伦支海海温异常对冬季我国渤海冰情的可能影响[J].海洋学报,2016,38(3):40-48.
[5]Thompson D W,Wallace J M.Regional Climate Impacts of the N orthern Hemisphere Annular Mode[J].Science,2001,293(5527):85-89.
[6]Gong D,Wang S.Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1999,26(4):459-462.
[7]张方俭,费立淑.我国的海冰灾害及其防御[J].海洋通报,1994(5):75-83.
[8]孙劭,苏洁,史培军.2010年渤海海冰灾害特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011(6):87-93.
[9]王相玉,袁本坤,商杰,等.渤黄海海冰灾害与防御对策[J].海岸工程,2011,30(4):46-55.
[10]杨华庭.近十年来的海洋灾害与减灾[J].海洋预报,2002,19(1):2-8.
[11]江崇波,江帆.渤海海冰灾害监测预警及防灾减灾的思考[J].海洋开发与管理,2013,30(2):20-22.
[12]于保华,李宜良,姜丽.21世纪中国城市海洋灾害防御战略研究[J].华南地震,2006,26(1):67-75.
[13]张启文,唐茂宁.渤海发生30年一遇冰情的成因分析及对2010/11年度的冰情预测[C].天灾预测总结学术研讨会议.2010.
[14]武浩,夏芸,许映军,等.2004年以来中国渤海海冰灾害时空特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):81-87.
[15]张启文,白珊.中国海海冰灾害的监测和预测研究[C].中国地球物理学会年会.2005.
[16]Gu W,Liu C,Yuan S,et al.Spatial distribution characteristics of sea-ice-hazard risk in Bohai,China[J].Annals of Glaciology,2013,54(62):73-79.