摘要
采用贝叶斯网络模型对目标识别、威胁评估是一种有效的定量分析方法。这里首次将贝叶斯网络模型运用到航母编队作战决策中识别水下目标和评估威胁等级。结合部队实际情况分别构建目标识别和威胁评估贝叶斯网络模型;基于部队实践数据、院校专家和查阅资料构建符合实际情况的条件概率表;最后通过仿真实验对水下目标进行识别和评估威胁等级,对比部队相关数据验证了贝叶斯网络对航母编队目标识别和威胁评估的有效性,能够为航母编队指挥员反潜作战提供一定的辅助决策。
Bayesian network model is a kind of effective quantitative analysis method for target recognition and threat assessment. The Bayesian network model is used to identify underwater targets and assess threat levels in aircraft carrier battle operations for the first time. Firstly,the bayesian network model of target recognition and threat assessment is constructed according to the actual situation of the troops;Secondly,the condition probability table is constructed based on the force practice data,the institution expert and the access information,which conforms to the actual situation;Finally,the underwater targets are identified and threat level is evaluated by simulation experiments,the validity of the Bayesian network on the target identification and threat assessment of the aircraft carrier formation is verified by the relevant data of the comparative forces,which can provide some auxiliary decision for the anti-submarine warfare of the aircraft carrier formation commander.
引文
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