四川盆区直播与移栽水稻旱灾风险比较
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摘要
定量评价和比较四川盆区移栽水稻与直播水稻各发育阶段及全生育期干旱灾害风险,能为各区域水稻防旱减灾生产技术转型和推广提供科学依据.基于自然灾害风险理论和水稻干旱灾害风险形成机理,利用四川盆区1961—2017年的气象资料、水稻生产观测资料、农业统计资料和基础地理信息,对移栽和直播水稻全生育期和播种-拔节、拔节-孕穗、孕穗-齐穗、齐穗-成熟4个发育阶段干旱危险性进行评价和比较,对四川盆区水稻干旱灾害承灾体易损性、成灾环境敏感性和防灾减灾能力进行分析,从而构建四川盆区水稻干旱风险评价模型,并对评价结果进行区划.结果表明:四川盆区水稻旱灾风险整体较高,两种播栽方式下均为中等风险区分布面积最广;两种播栽方式下干旱风险空间分布特征总体一致,表现为中东部高、西南部低,从东向西、从中部向周围递减的趋势.两种播栽方式下,水稻干旱危险性差异最大的时期出现在播种-拔节阶段,直播水稻在播种-拔节阶段的干旱危险性明显低于移栽水稻,且分布范围也较移栽水稻小;直播水稻干旱灾害的轻-低风险区分布较移栽水稻广,高风险区分布面积较移栽水稻略小.
The quantitative evaluation and comparison of drought risks at each development stage and the whole growth period between transplanting rice and direct-sowing rice in Sichuan Basin can provide a scientific basis for the transformation and promotion of rice production technology in various regions. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk and the formation mechanism of rice drought risk,we evaluated and compared the drought risk in the whole growth period and the four development stages( sowing-jointing, jointing-booting, booting-full heading, full heading-maturity)between transplanting rice and direct-sowing rice,analyzed the vulnerability of disaster bodies,the sensitivity of disaster environment and the capacity of drought disaster prevention and reduction of rice drought in Sichuan Basin,using meteorological data in Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2017,the observation data of rise production,agricultural statistics and the basic geographical information.The drought risk assessment model for Sichuan Basin was established,which was used to classify the results of evaluation. The results indicated that the drought risk of rice in Sichuan Basin was higher. The medium-risk areas in terms of the two planting methods were both the most widely distributed areas. The spatial-distribution characteristics of drought risk for the two kinds of rice were generally the same which was high in the middle and east of the basin,low in the southwest of the basin,and decreased from east to west and from the center to the surroundings. For the two planting methods,the greatest difference of rice drought risk appeared at the sowing-jointing stage. The drought risk of the direct-sowing rice at the sowing-jointing stage was significantly lower,and the distribution range was smaller than that of the transplanting rice. The distribution of the slight-low drought risk area of the direct-sowing rice was wider,but the high-risk area was slightly smaller.
The quantitative evaluation and comparison of drought risks at each development stage and the whole growth period between transplanting rice and direct-sowing rice in Sichuan Basin can provide a scientific basis for the transformation and promotion of rice production technology in various regions. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk and the formation mechanism of rice drought risk,we evaluated and compared the drought risk in the whole growth period and the four development stages( sowing-jointing, jointing-booting, booting-full heading, full heading-maturity)between transplanting rice and direct-sowing rice,analyzed the vulnerability of disaster bodies,the sensitivity of disaster environment and the capacity of drought disaster prevention and reduction of rice drought in Sichuan Basin,using meteorological data in Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2017,the observation data of rise production,agricultural statistics and the basic geographical information.The drought risk assessment model for Sichuan Basin was established,which was used to classify the results of evaluation. The results indicated that the drought risk of rice in Sichuan Basin was higher. The medium-risk areas in terms of the two planting methods were both the most widely distributed areas. The spatial-distribution characteristics of drought risk for the two kinds of rice were generally the same which was high in the middle and east of the basin,low in the southwest of the basin,and decreased from east to west and from the center to the surroundings. For the two planting methods,the greatest difference of rice drought risk appeared at the sowing-jointing stage. The drought risk of the direct-sowing rice at the sowing-jointing stage was significantly lower,and the distribution range was smaller than that of the transplanting rice. The distribution of the slight-low drought risk area of the direct-sowing rice was wider,but the high-risk area was slightly smaller.
引文
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[8]Wu H,Hubbard KG,Wilhlte DA.An agricultural drought risk-assessment model for corn and soybeans.International Journal of Climatology,2004,24:723-741
[9]Luo B-L(罗伯良),Huang W-H(黄晚华),Shuai X-Q(帅细强),et al.Risk division of drought disaster for rice production in Hunan Province.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology(中国农业气象),2011,32(3):461-465(in Chinese)
[10]Jia J-Y(贾建英),He N(贺楠),Han L-Y(韩兰英),et al.Analysis on drought risk of maize in Southwest China based on natural disaster risk theory and Arc GIS.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(农业工程学报),2015,31(4):152-159(in Chinese)
[11]Wang M-T(王明田),Zhang Y-F(张玉芳),Ma J(马均),et al.Risk assessment and regionalization of maize drought disasters in Sichuan Basin,Southeast China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2012,23(10):2803-2811(in Chinese)
[12]Zheng L(郑霖).Sichuan Agricultural Geography.Chengdu:Sichuan Renmin Press,1980(in Chinese)
[13]Gan S-L(甘书龙),Fu S-N(付绶宁),Tang H-Q(唐洪潜).Sichuan Agricultural Resources and Division.Chengdu:Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences Press,1986(in Chinese)
[14]Agriculture Department of Sichuan Province(四川省农业厅).Agricultural Statistical Yearbook of Sichuan Province.Chengdu:Agriculture Department of Sichuan Province,2011-2015(in Chinese)
[15]Ge Q-S(葛全胜),Zou M(邹铭),Zheng J-Y(郑景云).Integrated Assessment of Natural Disaster Risks in China.Beijing:Science Press,2008(in Chinese)
[16]Zhao J-Y(赵俊晔),Zhang Q(张峭),Zhao S-J(赵思健).A preliminary study of integrated assessment of wheat natural disaster risk in China.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2013,46(4):705-714(in Chinese)
[17]Sun ZY,Zhang JQ,Yan DH,et al.The impact of irrigation water supply rate on agricultural drought disaster risk:A case about maize based on EPIC in Baicheng City,China.Natural Hazards,2015,78:23-40
[18]He B(何斌),Wang Q-J(王全九),Wu D(吴迪).Spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural drought in Shaanxi Province,China based on integrated disaster risk index.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2016,27(10):3299-3306(in Chinese)
[19]Li L(李莉),Kuang S-M(匡少敏),Mo J-F(莫建飞),et al.Assessment of risk ranking for autumn drought in Guangxi based on AHP and GIS.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(农业工程学报),2013,29(19):193-201(in Chinese)
[20]Li X-Y(李香颜),Zhang J-P(张金平),Chen M(陈敏).Risk assessment and zoning of winter wheat dry-hot wind in Henan Province based on GIS technology.Journal of Natural Disasters(自然灾害学报),2017,26(3):63-70(in Chinese)
[21]Zhang Y-F(张玉峰),Yang W-D(杨武德),Bai J-J(白晶晶),et al.Coordinated variation of yield and grain protein content in winter wheat and strategies of irrigation and fertilization.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2006,39(12):2449-2458(in Chinese)
[22]Yang P(杨平),Zhang L-J(张丽娟),Zhao Y-X(赵艳霞),et al.Risk assessment and zoning of drought for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture(中国生态农业学报),2015,23(1):110-118(in Chinese)
[23]Hao L,Zhang XY,Lin SD.Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in country unit.Natural Hazards,2012,61:785-801
[24]Zhang H(张菡),Li J-J(李金建),Zheng H(郑昊).GIS-Based research on drought disaster of winter wheat risk zoning:A case study of winter wheat region in Sichuan.Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science)(西南大学学报:自然科学版),2016,41(8):57-63(in Chinese)
[25]Li J-J(李金建),Zhang H(张菡),Wang R-T(王锐婷),et al.Temporal and spatial variations of agricultural drought in Sichuan basin based on moisture index.Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science)(西南大学学报:自然科学版),2014,36(1):129-136(in Chinese)
[26]Qi L-F(亓来福),Wang J-Q(王继琴).The assessment of agricultural drought condition from farm water requirement.Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology(应用气象学报),1995,6(3):356-360(in Chinese)
[27]Yao Y-B(姚玉璧),Zhang C-J(张存杰),Deng Z-Y(邓振镛),et al.Overview of meteorological and agricultural drought indices.Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas(干旱地区农业研究),2007,25(1):185-189(in Chinese)
[28]Li Y(李勇),Yang X-G(杨晓光),Ye Q(叶清),et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China.Ⅸ.The risk of high and low temperature disasters for single and double rice and its impacts on rice yield in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2013,46(19):3997-4006(in Chinese)
[29]Zhu H-P(朱海平),Li G-Y(李贵勇),Xia Q-M(夏琼梅),et al.Effects of drought stress on yield and growth characteristics of rice in different periods.China Rice(中国稻米),2017,23(4):135-138(in Chinese)
[30]Wang C-A(王成瑷),Wang B-L(王伯伦),Zhang W-X(张文香),et al.Effects of drought stress at different growth stages on grain yield and milling quality of rice.Chinese Journal of Rice Science(中国水稻科学),2007,21(6):643-649(in Chinese)
[31]Wang C-Y(王春乙),Yao P-J(姚蓬娟),Zhang J-Q(张继权),et al.Risk assessment of cold and hot damages for double-cropping early rice(DCER)in lowermiddle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2016,49(13):2469-2483(in Chinese)
[32]Li H(李鹤),Zhang P-Y(张平宇),Cheng Y-Q(程叶青).Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability.Progress in Geography(地理科学进展),2008,27(2):18-25(in Chinese)
[33]Zhang J-P(张建平),Liu Z-Y(刘宗元),He Y-K(何永坤),et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of rice drought in Southwest China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2015,26(10):3103-3110(in Chinese)
[2]Zhang H(张鸿),Chi Z-Z(池中志),Jiang X-L(姜心禄),et al.Effects and biological control strategy of seasonal drought on growth and development of rice.China Rice(中国稻米),2011,17(4):16-22(in Chinese)
[3]Ma J(马均),Sun Y-J(孙永健),Yang Z-Y(杨致远).Mechanical dry land direct seeding technique of hybrid rice in Sichuan Basin.China Rice(中国稻米),2015,21(4):201-203(in Chinese)
[4]Zheng J-G(郑家国).Technical status development trend and countermeasures of rice production in Sichuan Province.Plant Doctor(植物医生),2017,30(3):22-24(in Chinese)
[5]Chen D-D(陈东东),Li X-W(栗晓玮),Zhang Y-F(张玉芳),et al.Assessment of different grade drought on critical growing period of rice in Sichuan Province.Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science)(西南师范大学学报:自然科学版),2017,42(10):69-77(in Chinese)
[6]Liu Y-Y(刘琰琰),Zhang Y-F(张玉芳),Wang M-T(王明田),et al.Spatial distribution of rice drought frequency during different growth periods in Sichuan Basin.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology(中国农业气象),2016,37(2):238-244(in Chinese)
[7]Wang T(王婷),Yuan S-J(袁淑杰),Wang P(王鹏),et al.Comparison of risk assessment on climatic drought for rice based on two methods in Sichuan Province.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology(中国农业气象),2013,34(4):455-461(in Chinese)
[8]Wu H,Hubbard KG,Wilhlte DA.An agricultural drought risk-assessment model for corn and soybeans.International Journal of Climatology,2004,24:723-741
[9]Luo B-L(罗伯良),Huang W-H(黄晚华),Shuai X-Q(帅细强),et al.Risk division of drought disaster for rice production in Hunan Province.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology(中国农业气象),2011,32(3):461-465(in Chinese)
[10]Jia J-Y(贾建英),He N(贺楠),Han L-Y(韩兰英),et al.Analysis on drought risk of maize in Southwest China based on natural disaster risk theory and Arc GIS.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(农业工程学报),2015,31(4):152-159(in Chinese)
[11]Wang M-T(王明田),Zhang Y-F(张玉芳),Ma J(马均),et al.Risk assessment and regionalization of maize drought disasters in Sichuan Basin,Southeast China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2012,23(10):2803-2811(in Chinese)
[12]Zheng L(郑霖).Sichuan Agricultural Geography.Chengdu:Sichuan Renmin Press,1980(in Chinese)
[13]Gan S-L(甘书龙),Fu S-N(付绶宁),Tang H-Q(唐洪潜).Sichuan Agricultural Resources and Division.Chengdu:Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences Press,1986(in Chinese)
[14]Agriculture Department of Sichuan Province(四川省农业厅).Agricultural Statistical Yearbook of Sichuan Province.Chengdu:Agriculture Department of Sichuan Province,2011-2015(in Chinese)
[15]Ge Q-S(葛全胜),Zou M(邹铭),Zheng J-Y(郑景云).Integrated Assessment of Natural Disaster Risks in China.Beijing:Science Press,2008(in Chinese)
[16]Zhao J-Y(赵俊晔),Zhang Q(张峭),Zhao S-J(赵思健).A preliminary study of integrated assessment of wheat natural disaster risk in China.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2013,46(4):705-714(in Chinese)
[17]Sun ZY,Zhang JQ,Yan DH,et al.The impact of irrigation water supply rate on agricultural drought disaster risk:A case about maize based on EPIC in Baicheng City,China.Natural Hazards,2015,78:23-40
[18]He B(何斌),Wang Q-J(王全九),Wu D(吴迪).Spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural drought in Shaanxi Province,China based on integrated disaster risk index.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2016,27(10):3299-3306(in Chinese)
[19]Li L(李莉),Kuang S-M(匡少敏),Mo J-F(莫建飞),et al.Assessment of risk ranking for autumn drought in Guangxi based on AHP and GIS.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(农业工程学报),2013,29(19):193-201(in Chinese)
[20]Li X-Y(李香颜),Zhang J-P(张金平),Chen M(陈敏).Risk assessment and zoning of winter wheat dry-hot wind in Henan Province based on GIS technology.Journal of Natural Disasters(自然灾害学报),2017,26(3):63-70(in Chinese)
[21]Zhang Y-F(张玉峰),Yang W-D(杨武德),Bai J-J(白晶晶),et al.Coordinated variation of yield and grain protein content in winter wheat and strategies of irrigation and fertilization.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2006,39(12):2449-2458(in Chinese)
[22]Yang P(杨平),Zhang L-J(张丽娟),Zhao Y-X(赵艳霞),et al.Risk assessment and zoning of drought for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture(中国生态农业学报),2015,23(1):110-118(in Chinese)
[23]Hao L,Zhang XY,Lin SD.Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in country unit.Natural Hazards,2012,61:785-801
[24]Zhang H(张菡),Li J-J(李金建),Zheng H(郑昊).GIS-Based research on drought disaster of winter wheat risk zoning:A case study of winter wheat region in Sichuan.Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science)(西南大学学报:自然科学版),2016,41(8):57-63(in Chinese)
[25]Li J-J(李金建),Zhang H(张菡),Wang R-T(王锐婷),et al.Temporal and spatial variations of agricultural drought in Sichuan basin based on moisture index.Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science)(西南大学学报:自然科学版),2014,36(1):129-136(in Chinese)
[26]Qi L-F(亓来福),Wang J-Q(王继琴).The assessment of agricultural drought condition from farm water requirement.Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology(应用气象学报),1995,6(3):356-360(in Chinese)
[27]Yao Y-B(姚玉璧),Zhang C-J(张存杰),Deng Z-Y(邓振镛),et al.Overview of meteorological and agricultural drought indices.Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas(干旱地区农业研究),2007,25(1):185-189(in Chinese)
[28]Li Y(李勇),Yang X-G(杨晓光),Ye Q(叶清),et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China.Ⅸ.The risk of high and low temperature disasters for single and double rice and its impacts on rice yield in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2013,46(19):3997-4006(in Chinese)
[29]Zhu H-P(朱海平),Li G-Y(李贵勇),Xia Q-M(夏琼梅),et al.Effects of drought stress on yield and growth characteristics of rice in different periods.China Rice(中国稻米),2017,23(4):135-138(in Chinese)
[30]Wang C-A(王成瑷),Wang B-L(王伯伦),Zhang W-X(张文香),et al.Effects of drought stress at different growth stages on grain yield and milling quality of rice.Chinese Journal of Rice Science(中国水稻科学),2007,21(6):643-649(in Chinese)
[31]Wang C-Y(王春乙),Yao P-J(姚蓬娟),Zhang J-Q(张继权),et al.Risk assessment of cold and hot damages for double-cropping early rice(DCER)in lowermiddle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.Scientia Agricultura Sinica(中国农业科学),2016,49(13):2469-2483(in Chinese)
[32]Li H(李鹤),Zhang P-Y(张平宇),Cheng Y-Q(程叶青).Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability.Progress in Geography(地理科学进展),2008,27(2):18-25(in Chinese)
[33]Zhang J-P(张建平),Liu Z-Y(刘宗元),He Y-K(何永坤),et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of rice drought in Southwest China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2015,26(10):3103-3110(in Chinese)