基于威布尔分布的某电子部件贮存可靠性寿命评估
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摘要
针对电子高可靠性、长寿命的特点,提出了使用定时截尾恒定应力加速寿命试验方法来评估电子部件件在一定可靠度下的贮存寿命。建立威布尔分布加速寿命模型,采用极大似然法进行参数估计,得到模型未知参数的极大似然估计结果,最后外推得到正常温度下的贮存寿命。结果表明,在25℃下可靠度为0.995时,使用定时截尾恒定应力加速寿命试验方法评估电子部件的寿命约为17.26年,与该电子部件合格证明文件中标明的一般贮存时间15-20年相比,预测结果与实际情况基本相符,验证了使用定时截尾恒定应力加速寿命试验方法评估电子部件寿命的有效性。
Aiming at evaluating the storage life of electronic components, which have characteristics of high reliability and long life, a Type Ⅰ censoring with a constant stress accelerated life test method is proposed. The Weibull distribution accelerated life model was established, and the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters. The storage life of the electronic components at normal temperature was obtained according to Arrhenius model and the above parameters. The results indicated that the life of the electronic component is estimated to be 17.26 years at 25℃ when the reliability is 0.995, using the Type Ⅰ censoring with a constant stress accelerated life test method. The prediction result is basically consistent with the actual situation about 15-20 years, which was shown on the electronic component certificate, this verifies the effectiveness of using the Type Ⅰ censoring under a constant stress accelerated life test method to evaluate the life of electronic components.
Aiming at evaluating the storage life of electronic components, which have characteristics of high reliability and long life, a Type Ⅰ censoring with a constant stress accelerated life test method is proposed. The Weibull distribution accelerated life model was established, and the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters. The storage life of the electronic components at normal temperature was obtained according to Arrhenius model and the above parameters. The results indicated that the life of the electronic component is estimated to be 17.26 years at 25℃ when the reliability is 0.995, using the Type Ⅰ censoring with a constant stress accelerated life test method. The prediction result is basically consistent with the actual situation about 15-20 years, which was shown on the electronic component certificate, this verifies the effectiveness of using the Type Ⅰ censoring under a constant stress accelerated life test method to evaluate the life of electronic components.
引文
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[14]朱广滕,顾晓辉,方道红,等.电子部件失效模式试验与仿真研究[J].装备环境工程,2013(6):45-49.ZHU Guang-teng,GU Xiao-hui,FANG Dao-hong,et al.Electronic Components Failure Mode Test and Simulation Study[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2013(6):45-49.
[2]李海波,张正平,胡彦平.加速寿命试验方法及其在航天产品中的应用[J].强度与环境,2007,34(1):2-10.LI Hai-bo,ZHANG Zheng-ping,HU Yan-ping.Accelerated life testing method and its applications for space products[J].Structure&Environment Engineering,2007,34(1):2-10.
[3]曹宏.空间环境下滤波减速器的加速寿命试验研究[D].成都:电子科技大学,2014.CAO Hong.Study on accelerated life testing of the filtering gear reducer under space environment[D].Chengtu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2014.
[4]葛广平.我国加速寿命试验研究的现状与展望[J].数理统计与管理,2000,19(1):25-29.GE Guang-ping.An outline and outlook on the research of accelerated life tests in China[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2000,19(1):25-29.
[5]陈光宇,张文,张小民.威布尔分布下系统全寿命周期成本建模与决策[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(11):2933-2940.CHEN Guang-yu,ZHANG Wen,ZHANG Xiaomin.Modeling and decision-making of system lifecycle costs under Weibull distribution[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2016,36(11):2933-2940.
[6]李倩玉,焦石.全寿命周期成本在配电网规划中的应用[J].电工电气,2013(2):52-57.LI Qian-yu,JIAO Shi.Application of Full Life-Cycle Cost in Power Distribution Network Planning[J].Electrotechnics Electric,2013(2):52-57.
[7]IEC 60747-10-1996,Semiconductor devices-Part 10:Generic specification for discrete devices and integrated circuits,1996.
[8]伍建军,游雄雄,吴事浪,等.两参数威布尔分布的废旧矿冶零部件再制造剩余寿命预测新方法[J].机械科学与技术,2016,35(4):589-593.WU Jian-jun,YOU Xiong-xiong,WU Shi-lang,et al.Residual Life Prediction of Remanufacturing for Mining Waste Parts Based on Two-parameter Weibull Distribution[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2016,35(4):589-593.
[9]何朝兵.右删失左截断数据下离散威布尔分布的参数估计[J].郑州大学学报(理学版),2016,48(2):18-23.HE Chao-bing.Parameter Estimations of Discrete Weibull Distribution with Left Truncated and Right Censored Data[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University(Natural Science Edition),2016,48(2):18-23.
[10]胡恩平,罗兴柏,艾志利.三参数威布尔分布条件下的无线电引信步进应力加速寿命试验与数据处理[J].探测与控制学报,2000,22(2):37-40.14HU En-ping LUO Xing-bai AI Zhi-li.The Step Stress ALT and Data Processing of the Radio Fuze under the Condition of Three-parameter Weibull Distribution[J].Journal of Detection&Control,2000,22(2):37-40.
[11]郭永基.可靠性工程原理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002.GUO Yong-ji.Principle of reliability engineering[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2002
[12]Mazzuchi T A,Soyer R.Dynamic models for statistical inference from accelerated life tests[C]//Reliability&Maintainability Symposium.IEEE,1990,67-70.
[13]Bugaighis M M.Exchange of censorship types and its impact on the estimation of parameters of a Weibull Regression model[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1995,44(3):496-499.
[14]朱广滕,顾晓辉,方道红,等.电子部件失效模式试验与仿真研究[J].装备环境工程,2013(6):45-49.ZHU Guang-teng,GU Xiao-hui,FANG Dao-hong,et al.Electronic Components Failure Mode Test and Simulation Study[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2013(6):45-49.