美国对上海合作组织的最新认知及原因
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摘要
美国是上海合作组织发展过程中的重要外部因素之一。迄今为止,美国官方尚未针对上合组织发布专门的政策文件。美国国内对上合组织的讨论大多集中在智库层面。尽管智库讨论不能代表美国官方,但也能从一个侧面反映出美国对上合组织的基本看法及对策考量。通过考察可知,美国对上合组织的定位并不清晰,在策略上更多采取"冷处理"的做法,在中短期内不谋求建立机制化合作关系。值得注意的是,把上合组织置于中国与现行国际体系间关系的视野下去思考,是美国讨论上合组织的新角度。扩员后的上合组织更应精准定位,在巩固现有成果的同时,进一步激发地区发展新增长点,逐渐形成能有效完善现行全球治理体系的、有别于西方的"上合地区治理体系"。
The United States is one of the important external factors in the development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO).To date,US officials have not issued specific policy documents on the SCO.Most of the discussions in the United States on the SCO are confine to the think tank level.Although the discussion of the think tank does not represent the American official,it can also reflect the basic views and countermeasures of the United States on the SCO from one aspect.It can be seen from the survey that the United States does not have a clear view about the positioning of the SCO.It adopts more "cold treatment" approach in strategy and does not seek to establish institutionalized cooperative relations with it in the short to medium term.It is worth noting that the United States has a new perspective in discussing the SCO from the perspective of relations between China and the current international system.Enlarged SCO should be more precise in positioning.While consolidating existing achievements,it should further stimulate new growth points in regional development and gradually form a "SCO regional governance system",which is different from the western one,that can effectively improve the current global governance system.
The United States is one of the important external factors in the development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO).To date,US officials have not issued specific policy documents on the SCO.Most of the discussions in the United States on the SCO are confine to the think tank level.Although the discussion of the think tank does not represent the American official,it can also reflect the basic views and countermeasures of the United States on the SCO from one aspect.It can be seen from the survey that the United States does not have a clear view about the positioning of the SCO.It adopts more "cold treatment" approach in strategy and does not seek to establish institutionalized cooperative relations with it in the short to medium term.It is worth noting that the United States has a new perspective in discussing the SCO from the perspective of relations between China and the current international system.Enlarged SCO should be more precise in positioning.While consolidating existing achievements,it should further stimulate new growth points in regional development and gradually form a "SCO regional governance system",which is different from the western one,that can effectively improve the current global governance system.
引文
(1)参见郑羽:《美国对上海合作组织的看法及政策》,载《和平与发展》2007年第1期;赵华胜:《美国与上海合作组织:从布什到奥巴马》,载《国际问题研究》2010年第2期。
(1)Boland J.,Eangaging the Anti-NATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engagingthe-anti-nato-5445
(2)Assistant Secretary Robert O. Blake,Jr. Bureau of South and Central Affairs Media Roundtable,Beijing,China,March 18,2011. http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/032111media.html
(3)Cooley A.,Great Games,Local Rules: The New Great Power Contest in Central Asia. Oxford University Press. 2012. pp. 74-96; Cooley A.,The Rise of the SCO as a New Regional Organization: Western Perspectives. March 23 2011. http://carnegie.ru/2011/03/23/rise-of-sco-as-new-regional-organization-westernperspectives-event-3225
(4)Boland J.,Eangaging the Anti-NATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engagingthe-anti-nato-5445
(5)Lind M.,America vs. Russia and China: Welcome to Cold War II: The Second Cold War is a rematch among the same teams. National Interest,April 15 2018. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-vs-russiachina-welcome-cold-war-ii-25382?page=show
(1)Boland J.,Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost Decade? APartner for the U.S.? / Brookings 21st Century Defense Initiative Policy Paper. 20 June 2011. p. 19; Boland J.,Eangaging the AntiNATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engaging-the-anti-nato-5445
(2)Albert E.,The Shanghai Cooperation Organization. October 14,2015. http://www.cfr.org/china/shanghai-cooperation-organization/p10883
(3)Ibid.
(4)Boland J.,Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost Decade? APartner for the U.S.? / Brookings 21st Century Defense Initiative Policy Paper. June 20,2011. pp. 11-19.
(5)Albert E.,The Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
(1)2015年2月,原美国国家安全委员会俄罗斯事务高级主任格雷厄姆(T. Graham)在纽约大学的讲座。
(2)Roney T.,The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: China’s NATO? September 13,2013. http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-chinas-nato-2/
(3)Fontaine R.,How China Sees World Order. April 20,2016. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/howchina-sees-world-order-15846?page=show
(4)Ibid.
(5)Barma N.,Ratner E.,Weber S.,Welcome to the World Without the West. November 12,2014. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-the-world-without-the-west-11651
(1)Jonathan E. Hillman,How Big Is China’s Belt and Road? April 3,2018. https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-big-chinas-belt-and-road
(2)Ibid.
(1)Cooley A.,Cooperation Gets Shanghaied: China,Russia,and the SCO. Foreign Affairs,December 14,2009. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2009-12-14/cooperation-gets-shanghaied
(2)Weitz R.,Building A NATO-SCO Dialogue,European Dialogue,March 14,2011. http://eurodialogue.org/Building-a-NATO-SCO-dialogue
(3)Barma N.,Ratner E.,Weber S.,Welcome to the World Without the West. November 12,2014. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-the-world-without-the-west-11651
(4)Boland J.,Eangaging the Anti-NATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engagingthe-anti-nato-5445
(1)President Donald J. Trump’s Foreign Policy Puts America First. White House. January 30 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-foreign-policy-puts-america-first/
(2)Transcript of Trump's speech in Saudi Arabia. CNN. May 21 2017. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/21/politics/trump-saudi-speech-transcript/index.html
(3)作为佐证,2019财年,美国国防预算为7 163亿美元,比2018财年国防预算7 000亿美元高出163亿美元,特朗普执政以来,美国国防预算开支逐年攀高。参见《7000亿美元巨额开支 美国军费为何再“飙高”?》,载新华网2017年9月20日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2017-09/20/c_129708071.htm;《美国国会通过2019财年国防预算案》,载新华网2018年8月2日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2018-08/02/c_1123213587.htm
(1)2018年2月13日,笔者对哥伦比亚大学哈里曼研究所所长库利(A.Cooley)教授的访谈。
(2)特朗普上台以来,美国先后退出TPP、巴黎协定、联合国教科文组织、联合国人权理事会、万国邮政联盟、伊朗核协定。
(3)Shambaugh D.,China Goes Global: The Partial Power,Oxford University Press,2013,p.6.
(4)2018年7月31日,笔者在上海大学与欧亚开发银行首席经济学家、俄总统经济问题委员会委员、俄联邦政府咨询专家委员会委员利萨沃利克(Я.Д.Лисоволик)的座谈。
(5)2018年2月20日,笔者对美国哥伦比亚大学哈里曼研究所所长库利(A.Cooley)教授的访谈。
(1)2018年2月16日,原美国国家安全委员会俄罗斯事务高级主任格雷厄姆(T. Graham)在纽约大学的座谈。
(1)关于“印太”区域的概念辨析,可参见林民旺:《“印太”的建构与亚洲地缘政治的张力》,载《外交评论》2018年第1期;夏立平:《地缘政治与地缘经济双重视角下的美国“印太战略”》,载《美国研究》2015年第2期。
(2)夏立平:《地缘政治与地缘经济双重视角下的美国“印太战略”》。
(3)2018年8月20日,中国现代国际关系研究院原院长季志业研究员在中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所的学术讲座。
(4)Kliman D.,Grace A.,Power Play: Addressing China’s Belt and Road Strategy. September 20 2018. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/power-play
(5)Scobell A.,Lin B.,Shatz H.,At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World. RAND Cooperation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2273.html
(6)关于“全球治理”概念,可参见蔡拓:《全球学与全球治理》,北京大学出版社2017年版;庞中英主编:《中国学者看世界·全球治理卷》,新世界出版社2007年版;徐秀军:《规则内化与规则外溢--中美参与全球治理的内在逻辑》,载《世界经济与政治》2017年第9期;庞中英、王瑞平:《全球治理:中国的战略应对》,载《国际问题研究》2013年第4期;James N. Rosenau and Ernst-Otto Czempiel,Governance Without Government: Order and Change in World Politics,Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1992,p. 4; Commission on Global Governance,Our Global Neighbourhood: The Report of the Commission on Global Governance,Oxford: Oxford University Press,1995;等等。
(1)参见唐永胜:《国际经济体系已处于超载状态》,载《世界知识》2012年第22期。
(2)参见秦亚青:《关于世界秩序与全球治理的几点阐释》,载《东北亚学刊》2018年第2期。
(3)庞中英、王瑞平:《全球治理:中国的战略应对》。
(4)参见陈亚洲、曾向红:《特朗普政府的中亚政策:继承与调整》,载《国际问题研究》2018年第4期。
(1)2018年4月14日,笔者对印度尼赫鲁大学辛格(S. Singh)教授的访谈。
(2)《巴基斯坦媒体专家积极评价上合组织峰会》,载央视网2017年6月10日。http://news.cctv.com/2017/06/10/ARTIwN97t7TQERWF3wUtwz6P170610.shtml
(1)[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦:《地区构成的世界:美国帝权中的亚洲和欧洲》,北京大学出版社 2007年版。
(2)Во скресенский А.Д. Мировое комплексное регионоведение.М.:МАГИСТР,2014;РашковскийЕ.,ХоросВ.Восток-Запад-Россия.М.:Прогресс-Традиция,2002.
(3)Во скресенский А.Д. Мировое комплексное регионоведение.М.:МАГИСТР,2014.С.196.
(4)参见李兴:《“一带一路”与欧亚联盟对接合作研究》,红旗出版社2018年版,第3页。
(1)Boland J.,Eangaging the Anti-NATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engagingthe-anti-nato-5445
(2)Assistant Secretary Robert O. Blake,Jr. Bureau of South and Central Affairs Media Roundtable,Beijing,China,March 18,2011. http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/032111media.html
(3)Cooley A.,Great Games,Local Rules: The New Great Power Contest in Central Asia. Oxford University Press. 2012. pp. 74-96; Cooley A.,The Rise of the SCO as a New Regional Organization: Western Perspectives. March 23 2011. http://carnegie.ru/2011/03/23/rise-of-sco-as-new-regional-organization-westernperspectives-event-3225
(4)Boland J.,Eangaging the Anti-NATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engagingthe-anti-nato-5445
(5)Lind M.,America vs. Russia and China: Welcome to Cold War II: The Second Cold War is a rematch among the same teams. National Interest,April 15 2018. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-vs-russiachina-welcome-cold-war-ii-25382?page=show
(1)Boland J.,Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost Decade? APartner for the U.S.? / Brookings 21st Century Defense Initiative Policy Paper. 20 June 2011. p. 19; Boland J.,Eangaging the AntiNATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engaging-the-anti-nato-5445
(2)Albert E.,The Shanghai Cooperation Organization. October 14,2015. http://www.cfr.org/china/shanghai-cooperation-organization/p10883
(3)Ibid.
(4)Boland J.,Ten Years of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Lost Decade? APartner for the U.S.? / Brookings 21st Century Defense Initiative Policy Paper. June 20,2011. pp. 11-19.
(5)Albert E.,The Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
(1)2015年2月,原美国国家安全委员会俄罗斯事务高级主任格雷厄姆(T. Graham)在纽约大学的讲座。
(2)Roney T.,The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: China’s NATO? September 13,2013. http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-chinas-nato-2/
(3)Fontaine R.,How China Sees World Order. April 20,2016. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/howchina-sees-world-order-15846?page=show
(4)Ibid.
(5)Barma N.,Ratner E.,Weber S.,Welcome to the World Without the West. November 12,2014. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-the-world-without-the-west-11651
(1)Jonathan E. Hillman,How Big Is China’s Belt and Road? April 3,2018. https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-big-chinas-belt-and-road
(2)Ibid.
(1)Cooley A.,Cooperation Gets Shanghaied: China,Russia,and the SCO. Foreign Affairs,December 14,2009. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2009-12-14/cooperation-gets-shanghaied
(2)Weitz R.,Building A NATO-SCO Dialogue,European Dialogue,March 14,2011. http://eurodialogue.org/Building-a-NATO-SCO-dialogue
(3)Barma N.,Ratner E.,Weber S.,Welcome to the World Without the West. November 12,2014. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-the-world-without-the-west-11651
(4)Boland J.,Eangaging the Anti-NATO,June 10,2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/engagingthe-anti-nato-5445
(1)President Donald J. Trump’s Foreign Policy Puts America First. White House. January 30 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-foreign-policy-puts-america-first/
(2)Transcript of Trump's speech in Saudi Arabia. CNN. May 21 2017. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/21/politics/trump-saudi-speech-transcript/index.html
(3)作为佐证,2019财年,美国国防预算为7 163亿美元,比2018财年国防预算7 000亿美元高出163亿美元,特朗普执政以来,美国国防预算开支逐年攀高。参见《7000亿美元巨额开支 美国军费为何再“飙高”?》,载新华网2017年9月20日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2017-09/20/c_129708071.htm;《美国国会通过2019财年国防预算案》,载新华网2018年8月2日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2018-08/02/c_1123213587.htm
(1)2018年2月13日,笔者对哥伦比亚大学哈里曼研究所所长库利(A.Cooley)教授的访谈。
(2)特朗普上台以来,美国先后退出TPP、巴黎协定、联合国教科文组织、联合国人权理事会、万国邮政联盟、伊朗核协定。
(3)Shambaugh D.,China Goes Global: The Partial Power,Oxford University Press,2013,p.6.
(4)2018年7月31日,笔者在上海大学与欧亚开发银行首席经济学家、俄总统经济问题委员会委员、俄联邦政府咨询专家委员会委员利萨沃利克(Я.Д.Лисоволик)的座谈。
(5)2018年2月20日,笔者对美国哥伦比亚大学哈里曼研究所所长库利(A.Cooley)教授的访谈。
(1)2018年2月16日,原美国国家安全委员会俄罗斯事务高级主任格雷厄姆(T. Graham)在纽约大学的座谈。
(1)关于“印太”区域的概念辨析,可参见林民旺:《“印太”的建构与亚洲地缘政治的张力》,载《外交评论》2018年第1期;夏立平:《地缘政治与地缘经济双重视角下的美国“印太战略”》,载《美国研究》2015年第2期。
(2)夏立平:《地缘政治与地缘经济双重视角下的美国“印太战略”》。
(3)2018年8月20日,中国现代国际关系研究院原院长季志业研究员在中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所的学术讲座。
(4)Kliman D.,Grace A.,Power Play: Addressing China’s Belt and Road Strategy. September 20 2018. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/power-play
(5)Scobell A.,Lin B.,Shatz H.,At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World. RAND Cooperation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2273.html
(6)关于“全球治理”概念,可参见蔡拓:《全球学与全球治理》,北京大学出版社2017年版;庞中英主编:《中国学者看世界·全球治理卷》,新世界出版社2007年版;徐秀军:《规则内化与规则外溢--中美参与全球治理的内在逻辑》,载《世界经济与政治》2017年第9期;庞中英、王瑞平:《全球治理:中国的战略应对》,载《国际问题研究》2013年第4期;James N. Rosenau and Ernst-Otto Czempiel,Governance Without Government: Order and Change in World Politics,Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1992,p. 4; Commission on Global Governance,Our Global Neighbourhood: The Report of the Commission on Global Governance,Oxford: Oxford University Press,1995;等等。
(1)参见唐永胜:《国际经济体系已处于超载状态》,载《世界知识》2012年第22期。
(2)参见秦亚青:《关于世界秩序与全球治理的几点阐释》,载《东北亚学刊》2018年第2期。
(3)庞中英、王瑞平:《全球治理:中国的战略应对》。
(4)参见陈亚洲、曾向红:《特朗普政府的中亚政策:继承与调整》,载《国际问题研究》2018年第4期。
(1)2018年4月14日,笔者对印度尼赫鲁大学辛格(S. Singh)教授的访谈。
(2)《巴基斯坦媒体专家积极评价上合组织峰会》,载央视网2017年6月10日。http://news.cctv.com/2017/06/10/ARTIwN97t7TQERWF3wUtwz6P170610.shtml
(1)[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦:《地区构成的世界:美国帝权中的亚洲和欧洲》,北京大学出版社 2007年版。
(2)Во скресенский А.Д. Мировое комплексное регионоведение.М.:МАГИСТР,2014;РашковскийЕ.,ХоросВ.Восток-Запад-Россия.М.:Прогресс-Традиция,2002.
(3)Во скресенский А.Д. Мировое комплексное регионоведение.М.:МАГИСТР,2014.С.196.
(4)参见李兴:《“一带一路”与欧亚联盟对接合作研究》,红旗出版社2018年版,第3页。