中国工业行业双向FDI的环境效应研究
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摘要
在Copeland-Taylor理论模型的基础上引入了初始的技术水平,将外商直接投资(IFDI)和对外直接投资(OFDI)的环境效应分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,并引入双向FDI的交互项,利用中国34个工业行业2004—2015年的数据,采用差分GMM和系统GMM的方法对总体行业和不同行业分组情况下双向FDI对污染排放的影响进行分析,研究发现:(1)从总体来看,IFDI会增加中国工业行业的污染排放,"污染天堂"假说在中国存在;而OFDI对中国工业行业的污染排放则会起到制动作用;双向FDI交互项对污染排放的影响也显著为负,说明IFDI和OFDI的污染排放效应存在一定的替代性。(2)从产出规模分组来看,高产出规模和低产出规模组的IFDI会促进污染排放的增加;而高产出规模组的OFDI对污染排放会起到抑制作用,低产出规模组的OFDI对污染排放则起到驱动作用;低产出规模组的双向FDI交互项对污染排放的影响为负,高产出规模组双向FDI交互项对污染排放的影响则为正。(3)从要素结构分组来看,由于存在产业关联性,IFDI会促进资本密集型和劳动密集型行业污染排放增加;OFDI也会增加劳动密集型行业的污染排放,但对资本密集型行业的污染排放则会起到制动作用;而双向FDI的交互效应对劳动密集型行业污染排放的影响显著为负,对资本密集型行业污染排放的影响则显著为正。(4)从技术水平分组来看,IFDI会促进高技术组的污染排放下降,但对低技术组并无显著影响;OFDI对高技术和低技术组的污染排放会起到制动作用;双向FDI的交互项则会促进高技术和低技术组的污染排放增加。据此,本文提出如下建议:(1)在引入外商直接投资的过程中,要改变以往的引资模式,大力培育专业性的市场以引入高技术水平的绿色外资。(2)在对外直接投资方面,要以多重动机的投资导向为主,一方面加快转移污染产业,另一方面通过逆向技术溢出掌握国外绿色生产流程。(3)中国政府应积极引导双向FDI合理布局,促进双向FDI交互项对污染排放的影响由驱动转变为制动。
Based on Copeland-Taylor 's theoretical model,this paper introduces the initial technical level to decomposes the environmental effects of inward foreign direct investment( IFDI) and outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) into scale effects,structural effects and technical effects,meanwhile introducing the interactive term of two-way FDI. By applying the data of China's 34 industries from 2004 to 2015,using DIF-GMM and SYS-GMM method,the influences of two-way FDI on pollution emission are analyzed. The results are as follows:(1) In general,IFDI significantly increases the pollution of China's industry,which implies that‘pollution paradise'hypothesis exists in China. In contrast,OFDI has a significant effect on reducing pollution emissions of Chinese industrial sectors. Similar to that of OFDI,the effect of the interactive term of two-way FDI on the pollution emission is also negative.This indicates that the effect of IFDI and OFDI on pollution emissions can be potentially substituted by each other.(2) In terms of industry output scale,for both high level output scale group and low level output scale group,IFDI increases pollution emissions. In contrast,for low level output scale group,OFDI also increases pollution emissions,but OFDI has an inhibitory effect on pollution emissions for high level output scale group. Additionally,the effect of the interactive term of two-way FDI on the pollution emissions in the low level output scale group is significantly negative,while the effect in high-output scale group is significantly positive.(3) In terms of the industry factor structure,for capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries,IFDI contributes to increasing emissions due to industrial relevance. OFDI also significantly increases pollution emissions of labor-intensive industries,but it reduces the emissions of capital-intensive industries. The interaction effect of two-way FDI on labor-intensive industries is significantly negative,while it is positive for capital-intensive industries.(4)In terms of industry's technical level,IFDI significantly promotes the pollution reduction in high-tech group,but with no significant impact on the low-tech group. OFDI reduces the pollution emissions in both groups. The interaction term of the two-way FDI promotes the increase of pollution emissions in both groups. Hereby,some suggestions are put forward:(1)It is necessary to change the pattern of introducing foreign direct investment and vigorously cultivate professional market to introduce foreign direct investment with high technology and green technology.(2) It is necessary to encourage the OFDI with multiple motives of investment. On the one hand,we need to speed up the process of transferring pollution industries outward. On the other hand,we can master green production technology of foreign country through the reverse technology spillover effect.(3) The Chinese government should actively promote a more reasonable distribution of two-way FDI,and direct the interactive effect of two-way FDI on pollution emissions from promotion to inhibition.
Based on Copeland-Taylor 's theoretical model,this paper introduces the initial technical level to decomposes the environmental effects of inward foreign direct investment( IFDI) and outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) into scale effects,structural effects and technical effects,meanwhile introducing the interactive term of two-way FDI. By applying the data of China's 34 industries from 2004 to 2015,using DIF-GMM and SYS-GMM method,the influences of two-way FDI on pollution emission are analyzed. The results are as follows:(1) In general,IFDI significantly increases the pollution of China's industry,which implies that‘pollution paradise'hypothesis exists in China. In contrast,OFDI has a significant effect on reducing pollution emissions of Chinese industrial sectors. Similar to that of OFDI,the effect of the interactive term of two-way FDI on the pollution emission is also negative.This indicates that the effect of IFDI and OFDI on pollution emissions can be potentially substituted by each other.(2) In terms of industry output scale,for both high level output scale group and low level output scale group,IFDI increases pollution emissions. In contrast,for low level output scale group,OFDI also increases pollution emissions,but OFDI has an inhibitory effect on pollution emissions for high level output scale group. Additionally,the effect of the interactive term of two-way FDI on the pollution emissions in the low level output scale group is significantly negative,while the effect in high-output scale group is significantly positive.(3) In terms of the industry factor structure,for capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries,IFDI contributes to increasing emissions due to industrial relevance. OFDI also significantly increases pollution emissions of labor-intensive industries,but it reduces the emissions of capital-intensive industries. The interaction effect of two-way FDI on labor-intensive industries is significantly negative,while it is positive for capital-intensive industries.(4)In terms of industry's technical level,IFDI significantly promotes the pollution reduction in high-tech group,but with no significant impact on the low-tech group. OFDI reduces the pollution emissions in both groups. The interaction term of the two-way FDI promotes the increase of pollution emissions in both groups. Hereby,some suggestions are put forward:(1)It is necessary to change the pattern of introducing foreign direct investment and vigorously cultivate professional market to introduce foreign direct investment with high technology and green technology.(2) It is necessary to encourage the OFDI with multiple motives of investment. On the one hand,we need to speed up the process of transferring pollution industries outward. On the other hand,we can master green production technology of foreign country through the reverse technology spillover effect.(3) The Chinese government should actively promote a more reasonable distribution of two-way FDI,and direct the interactive effect of two-way FDI on pollution emissions from promotion to inhibition.
引文
[1]盛斌,吕越.外国直接投资对中国环境的影响——来自工业行业面板数据的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2012(5):54-75.[SHENG Bin,LV Yue.Impact of foreign direct investment on China’s environment:an empirical study based on industrial panel data[J].Social sciences in China,2012(5):54-75.]
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[13]周力,庞辰晨.中国对外直接投资的母国环境效应研究——基于区域差异的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(8):131-139.[ZHOU Li,PANG Chenchen.Home country environmental effects of China’s foreign direct investment:based on the perspective of regional differences[J].China population,resources and environment,2013(8):131-139.]
[14]聂飞,刘海云.基于城镇化门槛模型的中国OFDI的碳排放效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(9):123-131.[NIE Fei,LIU Haiyun.Carbon emissions effect of China’s OFDI evidence from urbanization threshold model[J].China population,resources and environment,2016(9):123-131.]
[15]COPELAND B R,TAYLOR M S.North-south trade and the environment[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[16]盛斌.中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002.[SHENG Bin.Political and economic analysis of China’s foreign trade policy[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Sanlian Bookstore,Shanghai People’s Publishing House,2002.]
[17]刘海云,聂飞.中国制造业对外直接投资的空心化效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(4):83-96.[LIU Haiyun,NIE Fei.Study on the manufacturing industrial hollowing-out effect of China’s OFDI[J].China industrial economics,2015(4):83-96.]
[18]王文治,陆建明.要素禀赋、污染转移与中国制造业的贸易竞争力——对污染天堂与要素禀赋假说的检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012(12):73-78.[WANG Wenzhi,LU Jianming.Factor endowment,pollution transfer and trade competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry:a test of Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Factor Endowment Hypothesis[J].China population,resources and environment,2012(12):73-78.]
[19]张宗斌,辛静静.中国对外直接投资贸易效应区域差异研究[J].山东师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2016(2):89-96.[ZHANG Zongbin,XIN Jingjing.Study on regional differences of China’s trade effect from FDI[J].Journal of Shangdong Normal University(humanities and social sciences),2016(2):89-96.]
[2]HE J.Pollution Haven Hypothesis and environmental impacts of foreign direct investment:the case of industrial emission of sulfur dioxide(SO2)in Chinese provinces[J].Ecological economics,2006,60(1):228-245.
[3]KIM H S,BAEK J.The environmental consequences of economic growth revisited[J].Economics bulletin,2011,31(2):1198-1211.
[4]OMRI A,NGUYEN D K,RAULT C.Causal interactions between CO2emissions,FDI,and economic growth:evidence from Dynamic Simultaneous-equation Models[J].Economic modelling,2014,42:382-389.
[5]杨海生,贾佳,周永章,等.贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长与环境污染[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005(3):99-103.[YANG Haisheng,JIA Jia,ZHOU Yongzhang,et al.Impact on EKC by trade and FDI in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2005(3):99-103.]
[6]沙文兵,石涛.外商直接投资的环境效应——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2006(6):76-81.[SHA Wenbing,SHI Tao.The environmental effect of foreign direct investment:an empirical analysis based on China’s provincial panel data[J].World economic studies,2006(6):76-81.]
[7]LETCHUMANAN R,KODAMA F.Reconciling the conflict between the‘Pollution-Haven’Hypothesis and an emerging trajectory of international technology transfer[J].Research policy,2000,29(1):59-79.
[8]LIANG F H.Does foreign direct investment harm the host country’s environment?evidence from China[J].Current topics in management,2014,17:105-121.
[9]PERKINS R.Do recipient country characteristics affect international spillovers of co-efficiency via trade and foreign direct investment?[J].Climatic change,2012,112(2):469-491.
[10]ESKELAND G S,HARRISON A E.Moving to greener pastures?multinationals and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis[J].Journal of development economics,1997,70(1):1-23.
[11]SPATAREANU M.Searching for Pollution Havens the impact of environmental regulations on foreign direct investment[J].Journal of environment&development a review of international policy,2007,16(2):161-182.
[12]DIJKSTRA B R,MATHEW A J,MUKHERJEE A.Environmental regulation:an incentive for foreign direct investment[J].Review of international economics,2011,19(3):568-578.
[13]周力,庞辰晨.中国对外直接投资的母国环境效应研究——基于区域差异的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(8):131-139.[ZHOU Li,PANG Chenchen.Home country environmental effects of China’s foreign direct investment:based on the perspective of regional differences[J].China population,resources and environment,2013(8):131-139.]
[14]聂飞,刘海云.基于城镇化门槛模型的中国OFDI的碳排放效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(9):123-131.[NIE Fei,LIU Haiyun.Carbon emissions effect of China’s OFDI evidence from urbanization threshold model[J].China population,resources and environment,2016(9):123-131.]
[15]COPELAND B R,TAYLOR M S.North-south trade and the environment[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1994,109(3):755-787.
[16]盛斌.中国对外贸易政策的政治经济分析[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002.[SHENG Bin.Political and economic analysis of China’s foreign trade policy[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Sanlian Bookstore,Shanghai People’s Publishing House,2002.]
[17]刘海云,聂飞.中国制造业对外直接投资的空心化效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(4):83-96.[LIU Haiyun,NIE Fei.Study on the manufacturing industrial hollowing-out effect of China’s OFDI[J].China industrial economics,2015(4):83-96.]
[18]王文治,陆建明.要素禀赋、污染转移与中国制造业的贸易竞争力——对污染天堂与要素禀赋假说的检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012(12):73-78.[WANG Wenzhi,LU Jianming.Factor endowment,pollution transfer and trade competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry:a test of Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Factor Endowment Hypothesis[J].China population,resources and environment,2012(12):73-78.]
[19]张宗斌,辛静静.中国对外直接投资贸易效应区域差异研究[J].山东师范大学学报(人文社会科学版),2016(2):89-96.[ZHANG Zongbin,XIN Jingjing.Study on regional differences of China’s trade effect from FDI[J].Journal of Shangdong Normal University(humanities and social sciences),2016(2):89-96.]