STP无线调车机车信号和监控系统安全风险评估研究
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摘要
为提高铁路车站调车作业安全风险评估的准确性和有效性,在阐述STP无线调车机车信号和监控系统,以及故障树分析法(FTA)和层次分析法(AHP)的基础上,分析STP系统的组成原理,研究基于FTA-AHP方法对系统进行安全风险评估。首先,采用FTA分析目标风险事件发生原因,确定故障树的全部最小割集与各个基本事件的结构重要度排序;其次,选取AHP对系统风险做进一步分析,将各因素按照一定逻辑有序分层后构造判断矩阵得到其相对权重;最后,结合专家对指标层各因素的安全状态评分,逐层计算得到系统的安全评估结果。最终验证系统具有良好的安全性。
To improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the safety risk assessment of shunting operation at railway stations, the authors study the composition of the STP system and assessed its risk factors with FTA-AHP methods, and they also elaborate on the principles of fault tree analysis(FTA) and analytic hierarchy process(AHP). To be specific, the paper uses FTA to analyze the causes of the target risk events and determine all the minimum cutsets of the fault tree as well as the order of structural importance of all the elementary events. Then the paper adopts AHP to further analyze risks of the STP system, and calculate the relative weights of the logically stratified risk factors with a judgment matrix. Finally the paper calculates the results of safety risk assessment of the STP system layer by layer, combined with experts' grading of the safety status of the risk factors on each index layer. The systern proves effective in safely managing the caculations.
To improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the safety risk assessment of shunting operation at railway stations, the authors study the composition of the STP system and assessed its risk factors with FTA-AHP methods, and they also elaborate on the principles of fault tree analysis(FTA) and analytic hierarchy process(AHP). To be specific, the paper uses FTA to analyze the causes of the target risk events and determine all the minimum cutsets of the fault tree as well as the order of structural importance of all the elementary events. Then the paper adopts AHP to further analyze risks of the STP system, and calculate the relative weights of the logically stratified risk factors with a judgment matrix. Finally the paper calculates the results of safety risk assessment of the STP system layer by layer, combined with experts' grading of the safety status of the risk factors on each index layer. The systern proves effective in safely managing the caculations.
引文
[1]曹桂均,林通源.车站调车作业安全防护的新装备:调车机车信号和监控系统[J].铁路通信信号工程技术,2006,3(2):7-10,26.
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[4]杨小燕,王立松.基于威胁分析的高速铁路行车安全风险评估方法[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(1):71-76.YANG Xiao-yan,WANG Li-song.Risk Assessment Method for High-speed Railway Traffic Safety based on Threat Analysis[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2017,39(1):71-76.
[5]曹桂均,林通源.调车机车监控记录系统的研究与试验[J].铁道学报,2004(3):55-61.CAO Gui-jun,LIN Tong-yuan.Research and Test of the Shunting Locomotive Monitoring System[J].Joural of the China Railway Society,2004(3):55-61.
[6]KABIR S.An Overview of Fault Tree Analysis and Its Application in Model based Dependability Analysis[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2017,77(7):114-135.
[7]易灿南,胡鸿,廖可兵,等.FTA-AHP方法研究及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(11):167-173.YI Can-nan,HU Hong,LIAO Ke-bing,et al.Research on FTA-AHP and Its Application[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(11):167-173.
[8]温克学,李笑红.铁路货物装载安全创新实践回顾与展望[J].铁道货运,2011,29(2):5-11.WEN Ke-xue,LI Xiao-hong.Review and Expectation on Innovation and Practices of Railway Goods loading Safety[J].Railway Freight Transport,2011,29(2):5-11.
[9]刘敬辉.基于FTA-AHP的铁路安全风险综合评估方法[J].中国铁道科学,2017,38(2):138-144.LIU Jing-hui.Synthesized Risk Assessment Method for Railway Safety based on FTA-AHP Analysis[J].China Railway Science,2017,38(2):138-144.
[2]曹桂均.保证车站调车作业安全的研究[R].北京:中国铁道科学研究院,2005.
[3]李晓宇,戴玥.高速动车组紧急制动安全风险分析及对策研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2015,37(6):33-38.LI Xiao-yu,DAI Yue.Study on Safety Risk Analysis of Highspeed EMU Emergency Braking and Its Countermeasures[J].Railway Transportat and Economy,2015,37(6):33-38.
[4]杨小燕,王立松.基于威胁分析的高速铁路行车安全风险评估方法[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(1):71-76.YANG Xiao-yan,WANG Li-song.Risk Assessment Method for High-speed Railway Traffic Safety based on Threat Analysis[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2017,39(1):71-76.
[5]曹桂均,林通源.调车机车监控记录系统的研究与试验[J].铁道学报,2004(3):55-61.CAO Gui-jun,LIN Tong-yuan.Research and Test of the Shunting Locomotive Monitoring System[J].Joural of the China Railway Society,2004(3):55-61.
[6]KABIR S.An Overview of Fault Tree Analysis and Its Application in Model based Dependability Analysis[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2017,77(7):114-135.
[7]易灿南,胡鸿,廖可兵,等.FTA-AHP方法研究及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(11):167-173.YI Can-nan,HU Hong,LIAO Ke-bing,et al.Research on FTA-AHP and Its Application[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(11):167-173.
[8]温克学,李笑红.铁路货物装载安全创新实践回顾与展望[J].铁道货运,2011,29(2):5-11.WEN Ke-xue,LI Xiao-hong.Review and Expectation on Innovation and Practices of Railway Goods loading Safety[J].Railway Freight Transport,2011,29(2):5-11.
[9]刘敬辉.基于FTA-AHP的铁路安全风险综合评估方法[J].中国铁道科学,2017,38(2):138-144.LIU Jing-hui.Synthesized Risk Assessment Method for Railway Safety based on FTA-AHP Analysis[J].China Railway Science,2017,38(2):138-144.