福建省制造业转型升级人才需求预测分析
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摘要
福建省制造业人才队伍目前存在诸多问题:制造业人才队伍总体素质不高,高端产业工人严重短缺;制造业人才引进机制不健全,产教协同育人体系尚未形成;政策设计不够完善,政策执行不够到位等。在对福建省制造业人才现状分析的基础上,结合现有的制造业人才数据,运用GM(1,1)和残差自回归的组合模型,对"十三五"期间福建省制造业人才的需求量进行预测。预测结果显示,"十三五"期间,福建省制造业人才需求量呈现出明显的下降趋势。结合福建省制造业人才的现状和人才需求预测分析结果,提出促进福建省制造业转型升级的政策建议:大力实施"二元制"教育模式,提供高质量人才支撑;以智能制造为主攻方向,培养高端应用型科技人才;以制造业转型升级为基础,精准引才、育才等。
There are many problems in the talent team of Fujian manufacturing industry,including the low comprehensive quality of industry talents,serious shortage of high-end industrial workers,imperfect introduction mechanism of manufacturing talents,unformed enterprises-university collaborative education system,as well as faulty policy design and policy execution.Based on the analysis of the talent team of Fujian manufacturing industry and the existing data of manufacturing talents,this paper uses the combined model of GM(1,1) and residual auto-regression to forecast the demand for manufacturing talents in Fujian during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the result of which shows an obvious downward trend.According to the talent status and demand forecast result,this paper puts forward some suggestions so as to improve the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry in Fujian,such as vigorously implementing the " dual system" education model to provide high-quality personnel support,focusing on intelligent manufacturing to cultivate high-end applied science and technology talents,and precisely introducing and cultivating talents based on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.
There are many problems in the talent team of Fujian manufacturing industry,including the low comprehensive quality of industry talents,serious shortage of high-end industrial workers,imperfect introduction mechanism of manufacturing talents,unformed enterprises-university collaborative education system,as well as faulty policy design and policy execution.Based on the analysis of the talent team of Fujian manufacturing industry and the existing data of manufacturing talents,this paper uses the combined model of GM(1,1) and residual auto-regression to forecast the demand for manufacturing talents in Fujian during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the result of which shows an obvious downward trend.According to the talent status and demand forecast result,this paper puts forward some suggestions so as to improve the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry in Fujian,such as vigorously implementing the " dual system" education model to provide high-quality personnel support,focusing on intelligent manufacturing to cultivate high-end applied science and technology talents,and precisely introducing and cultivating talents based on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.
引文
[1]兰筱琳,黄茂兴.工业4.0背景下中国制造业转型升级的现实条件与发展策略[J].中国矿业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,20(5):47-59.
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[5]赵小松,张哲,张哂卿,等.组合模型对我国软件人才预测的应用实例[J].工业工程,2007(3):99-101,110.
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[7]王树生.“二元”视角下现代学徒制人才培养模式研究与实践[J].教育评论,2017(7):7-11.
[8]林汉川,汤临佳.新一轮产业革命的全局战略分析---各国智能制造发展动向概览[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2015(11):62-75.
[9]王斌.智能制造背景下地方本科院校应用型人才培养对策[J].教育理论与实践,2018,38(18):9-11.
[2]李拓宇,李飞,陆国栋.面向“中国制造2025”的工程科技人才培养质量提升路径探析[J].高等工程教育研究,2015(6):17-23.
[3]福建省统计局.2017年全省规模以上工业实现利润总额同比增长20.2%[EB/OL].(2018-01-31)[2018-12-09].http://tjj.fujian.gov.cn/xxgk/tjxx/201801/t20180131_1487093.htm.
[4]周济.智能制造---“中国制造2025”的主攻方向[J].中国机械工程,2015,26(17):2273-2284.
[5]赵小松,张哲,张哂卿,等.组合模型对我国软件人才预测的应用实例[J].工业工程,2007(3):99-101,110.
[6]徐国祥.统计预测与决策[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2015:168.
[7]王树生.“二元”视角下现代学徒制人才培养模式研究与实践[J].教育评论,2017(7):7-11.
[8]林汉川,汤临佳.新一轮产业革命的全局战略分析---各国智能制造发展动向概览[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2015(11):62-75.
[9]王斌.智能制造背景下地方本科院校应用型人才培养对策[J].教育理论与实践,2018,38(18):9-11.