中国年和季节极端降水时空特征及极值分布函数上尾部性质
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摘要
基于热带气旋时间、路径、强度数据和中国728个气象站点1951~2014年日降水数据,分析了年和季节极端降水广义极值(GEV)分布函数特征及受热带气旋的影响。通过检查年和各季节极端降水的非一致性,发现具有变异点或显著时间趋势的站点占总站点数的比例较低。仅考虑满足一致性的站点,年和各季节极端降水GEV分布上尾部在全国大部分区域表现出厚尾特征,且不具有上边界。总体来看北方厚尾特征重于南方,秋季和冬季明显高于年和夏季。年极端降水厚尾特征受到不同季节极端降水机制的混合影响。而且,热带气旋对中国沿海区域极端降水有重要影响,往往引发大量级极端降水。东南沿海地区最大10场极端降水由热带气旋引发的比例达到60%以上。因此热带气旋趋向于增加沿海区域年极端降水GEV分布形状参数的大小,并控制着曲线上尾部的形状。
Based on the daily precipitation and tropical cyclones data in 728 stations from 1951 to 2014 in China, spatio-temporal patterns of extreme precipitation Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution with annual and seasonal scales and potential relationships with tropical cyclones were analyzed. We examined the nonstationarity in annual and seasonal extreme precipitation and found that the frequency of stations with change point or significant temporal trend on total 728 stations was small. For stations with stationary in annual and seasonal extreme precipitation, the distribution curves of annual and seasonal extreme precipitation had thick upper tails and unbounded. And the upper tails in north of China were thicker than south of China with bigger in autumn and winter than annual and summer. However, the thick tails at annual scale were influenced by seasonal extreme precipitation. In addition, tropical cyclones play an important role in extreme precipitation generating mechanisms on China's coastal regions, which often caused precipitation with bigger magnitude. More than 60% of the ten largest annual precipitation extremes were caused by tropical cyclones. Therefore, anomalously large values of the GEV shape parameter estimates were linked to the role of tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of extreme precipitation distributions.
Based on the daily precipitation and tropical cyclones data in 728 stations from 1951 to 2014 in China, spatio-temporal patterns of extreme precipitation Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution with annual and seasonal scales and potential relationships with tropical cyclones were analyzed. We examined the nonstationarity in annual and seasonal extreme precipitation and found that the frequency of stations with change point or significant temporal trend on total 728 stations was small. For stations with stationary in annual and seasonal extreme precipitation, the distribution curves of annual and seasonal extreme precipitation had thick upper tails and unbounded. And the upper tails in north of China were thicker than south of China with bigger in autumn and winter than annual and summer. However, the thick tails at annual scale were influenced by seasonal extreme precipitation. In addition, tropical cyclones play an important role in extreme precipitation generating mechanisms on China's coastal regions, which often caused precipitation with bigger magnitude. More than 60% of the ten largest annual precipitation extremes were caused by tropical cyclones. Therefore, anomalously large values of the GEV shape parameter estimates were linked to the role of tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of extreme precipitation distributions.
引文
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[21]顾西辉,张强,王宗志.1951-2010年珠江流域洪水极值序列平稳性特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):824-835.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang,Wang Zongzhi.Evaluation on stationarity Assumption of annual maximum peak flows during1951-2010 in the Pearl River Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(5):824-835.]
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[24]巩崇水,曾淑玲,王嘉媛,等.近30年中国雷暴天气气候特征分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1442-1449.[Gong Chongshui,Zeng Shuling,Wang Jiayuan et al.Analyses on climatic characteristics of thunderstorm in China in recent 30 years.Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(5):1442-1449.]
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[26]陆日宇,林中达,张耀存.夏季东亚高空急流的变化及其对东亚季风的影响[J].大气科学,2013,37(2):331-340.[Lu Riyu,Lin Zhongda,Zhang Yaocun.Variability of the East Asian upper-tropospheric Jet in summer and its impacts on the East Asian Monsoon.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(2):331-340.]
[27]王月,张强,张生,等.淮河流域降水过程时空特征及其对ENSO影响的响应研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):128-134.[Wang Yue,Zhang Qiang,Zhang Sheng et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation in the Huaihe River basin and its response to ENSO events.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):128-134.]
[2]Li J,Zhang Q,Chen Y D et al.Changing spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation regimes in China during2071-2100 based on earth system models[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2013,118(19):12537-12555.
[3]顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬.中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):718-730.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang,Kong Dongdong.Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation with their responses to summer temperature.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(5):718-730.]
[4]Zhang Qiang,Sun Peng,Singh V P et al.Spatial-temporal precipitation changes(1956-2000)and their implications for agriculture in China[J].Global and Planetary Change,2012,82-83:86-95.
[5]张强,李剑锋,陈晓宏,等.基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(1):3-12.[Zhang Qiang,Li Jianfeng,Chen Xiaohong et al.Spatial variability of probability distribution of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang.Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(1):3-12.]
[6]佘敦先,夏军,张永勇,等.近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1200-1210.[She Duixian,Xia Jun,Zhang Yongyong et al.The trend analysis and statistical distribution of extreme rainfall events in the Huaihe River Basin in the past 50 years.Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1200-1210.]
[7]顾西辉,张强.考虑水文趋势影响的珠江流域非一致性洪水风险分析[J].地理研究,2014,33(9):1680-1693.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang.Non-stationary flood risk analysis in Pearl River Basin,considering the impact of hydrological trends.Geographical Research,2014,33(9):1680-1693.]
[8]顾西辉,张强,陈晓宏,等.气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率[J].热带地理,2014,34(6):746-757.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang,Chen Xiaohong et al.Nonstationary flood frequency analysis considering the combined effects of climate change and human activities in the East River Basin.Tropical Geography,2014,34(6):746-757.]
[9]Salas J D.Handbook of hydrology[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1993.
[10]Coles S.An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme Values[M].London:Springer,2001.
[11]申茜,张世轩,赵俊虎,等.近海热带气旋对中国东部夏季降水的贡献[J].物理学报,2013,62(18):189201.[Shen Qian,Zhang Shixuan,Zhao Junhu et al.Contribution of typhoon over coastal waters to summer rainfall in eastern China.Acta Physica Sinica,2013,62(18):189201.]
[12]张家诚,林之光.中国气候[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1985.[Zhang Jiacheng,Lin Zhiguang.Climate of China.Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technical Publishers,1985.]
[13]Zhang Q,Li J,Singh V P et al.Spatio-temporal relations between temperature and precipitation regimes:implications for temperature-induced changes in the hydrological cycle[M].Global and Planetary Change,2013,111:57-76.
[14]Ying Ming,Zhang Wei,Yu Hui et al.An overview of the China meteorological administration tropical cyclone database[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2014,31(2):287-301.
[15]Toms J D,Lesperance M L.Piecewise regression:A tool for identifying ecological thresholds[J].Ecology,2003,84(8):2034-2041.
[16]张强,孙鹏,陈喜,等.1956-2000年中国地表水资源状况:变化特征,成因及影响[J].地理科学,2011,31(12):1430-1436.[Zhang Qiang,Sun Peng,Chen Xi et al.Water resources in China from1956 to 2000:changingproperties,causes and implications.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(12):1430-1436.]
[17]顾西辉,张强,刘剑宇,等.变化环境下1951-2015年珠江流域洪水频率变化特征,成因及影响研究[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(5):661-670.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang,Liu Jianyu et al.Characteristics,causes and impacts of the changes of the flood frequency in the Pearl River drainage basin from 1951 to 2010.Journal of Lake Sciences,2014,26(5):661-670.]
[18]顾西辉,张强,陈永勤.基于GEVcdn模型的珠江流域非一致性洪水频率分析[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(4):157-166.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang,Chen Yongqin.GEVcdn-based analysis of inconsistent flood frequency of Pearl River Basin.Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(4):157-166.]
[19]Villarini G,Denniston R F.Short communication contribution of tropical cyclones to extreme rainfall in Australia[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36(2):1019-1025.
[20]吴增祥.气象台站历史沿革信息及其对观测资料序列均一性影响的初步分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(4):461-467.[Wu Zengxiang.Preliminary analysis of the information on meteorological station historical evolution and its impacts on homogeneity of observational records.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2005,16(4):462-267.]
[21]顾西辉,张强,王宗志.1951-2010年珠江流域洪水极值序列平稳性特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):824-835.[Gu Xihui,Zhang Qiang,Wang Zongzhi.Evaluation on stationarity Assumption of annual maximum peak flows during1951-2010 in the Pearl River Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(5):824-835.]
[22]Hirschboeck K K.Flood hydroclimatology[M].John Wiley&Sons,Hoboken,1988.
[23]方翀,毛冬艳,张小雯,等.2012年7月21日北京地区特大暴雨中尺度对流条件和特征初步分析[J].气象,2012,38(10):1278-1287.[Fang Chong,Mao Dongyan,Zhang Xiaowen et al.Analysis on the mesoscale convective conditions and characteristics of an extreme torrential rain in Beijing on 21 July 2012.Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(10):1278-1287.]
[24]巩崇水,曾淑玲,王嘉媛,等.近30年中国雷暴天气气候特征分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1442-1449.[Gong Chongshui,Zeng Shuling,Wang Jiayuan et al.Analyses on climatic characteristics of thunderstorm in China in recent 30 years.Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(5):1442-1449.]
[25]姜江,姜大膀,林一骅.1961~2009年中国季风区范围和季风降水变化[J].大气科学,2015,39(4):722-730.[Jiang Jiang,Jiang Dabang,Lin Yihua.Monsoon area and precipitation over China for 1961-2009.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(4):722-730.]
[26]陆日宇,林中达,张耀存.夏季东亚高空急流的变化及其对东亚季风的影响[J].大气科学,2013,37(2):331-340.[Lu Riyu,Lin Zhongda,Zhang Yaocun.Variability of the East Asian upper-tropospheric Jet in summer and its impacts on the East Asian Monsoon.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(2):331-340.]
[27]王月,张强,张生,等.淮河流域降水过程时空特征及其对ENSO影响的响应研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):128-134.[Wang Yue,Zhang Qiang,Zhang Sheng et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation in the Huaihe River basin and its response to ENSO events.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):128-134.]