基于B型关联度及GIOWA算子的组合预测模型
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摘要
文章首先利用ARIMA(1,1,1)模型、Holt指数平滑模型、M估计值稳健回归等单项预测方法对我国2008—2016年的就业人数进行预测。随后,通过以B型关联度作为目标函数,并引入GIOWA算子,构建了变权组合预测模型对就业人数进行组合预测。研究结果表明,基于B型关联度和GIOWA算子的组合预测模型的预测精度要显著好于单项预测。
This paper firstly carries out a single forecast of China's employment population from 2008 to 2016 by using single forecasting methods such as ARIMA(1,1,1) model, Holt exponential smoothing model and M estimated value steady regression model. Then, the paper constructs changeable weight combination forecast model by using B-mode Relational Degree as objective function and bringing in GIOWA operator. Results show that the forecasting precision of combination forecast based on B-mode Relational Degree and GIOWA operator is remarkably higher than that of single forecast.
This paper firstly carries out a single forecast of China's employment population from 2008 to 2016 by using single forecasting methods such as ARIMA(1,1,1) model, Holt exponential smoothing model and M estimated value steady regression model. Then, the paper constructs changeable weight combination forecast model by using B-mode Relational Degree as objective function and bringing in GIOWA operator. Results show that the forecasting precision of combination forecast based on B-mode Relational Degree and GIOWA operator is remarkably higher than that of single forecast.
引文
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[11]周远翔,宋马林,袁宏俊.基于灰色关联度的广义IOWA算子组合预测模型[J].统计与决策,2016,(9).
[2]朱家明,王犁,童金萍,郭艳芳.我国就业人数的主要影响因素分析及前景预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,(15).
[3]刘广永.基于产业结构变动的中国城镇就业人口预测[J].经济研究导刊,2012,(9).
[4]张玉杰,殷宝明.美国就业预测在中国的初步应用[J].中国劳动,2016,(18).
[5]Bates J M,Granger C W J.The Combination of Forecasts[J].Operation-al Research Quarterly,1969,20(4).
[6]Yager R R.On Ordered Weighted Averaging Aggregation Operatorsin Multicriteria Decisionmaking[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,1988,18(1).
[7]徐泽水.基于模糊语言评估和GIOWA算子的多属性群决策方法[J].系统科学与数学,2004,(2).
[8]陈华友.基于Theil不等系数的组合预测模型的性质[J].电子科技大学学报,2004,(1).
[9]陈华友.基于相关系数的优性组合预测模型研究[J].系统工程学报,2006,(4).
[10]杨蕾,陈华友,王宇.基于贴近度的诱导广义OWA算子最优组合预测模型[J].统计与决策,2013,(5).
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