Global warming weakening the inherent stability of glaciers and permafrost
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摘要
The Cryosphere has been undergoing a worldwide retreat, as seen in the decrease in the areal extent and volume of glaciers and in the areal extent of permafrost. This paper presents a systematic examination of the inherent stability changes of glaciers and permafrost caused by warming. Various study results suggest that over the past 30 years, the internal temperature of glaciers and permafrost exhibits an overall accelerating warming trend. The warming rate peaked in the mid-2000s and slowed slightly for several years afterward. In recent years, however, the warming rate has seemed to pick up again. The warming of glaciers and permafrost has exerted great impact on their stability, displayed as intensified melting,increased glacier surging, enlargement of supraglacial lakes, and increased permafrost degradation.Even without a future temperature increase, some glaciers will continue to shrink, and the number of surging glaciers will increase. The transition from low-temperature to high-temperature permafrost is a noticeable warning sign of a comprehensive degradation of permafrost. These results indicate that‘‘warming" glaciers and permafrost will exert significant impacts on the hydrology, ecology, and stability of engineering in cold regions.
The Cryosphere has been undergoing a worldwide retreat, as seen in the decrease in the areal extent and volume of glaciers and in the areal extent of permafrost. This paper presents a systematic examination of the inherent stability changes of glaciers and permafrost caused by warming. Various study results suggest that over the past 30 years, the internal temperature of glaciers and permafrost exhibits an overall accelerating warming trend. The warming rate peaked in the mid-2000s and slowed slightly for several years afterward. In recent years, however, the warming rate has seemed to pick up again. The warming of glaciers and permafrost has exerted great impact on their stability, displayed as intensified melting,increased glacier surging, enlargement of supraglacial lakes, and increased permafrost degradation.Even without a future temperature increase, some glaciers will continue to shrink, and the number of surging glaciers will increase. The transition from low-temperature to high-temperature permafrost is a noticeable warning sign of a comprehensive degradation of permafrost. These results indicate that‘‘warming" glaciers and permafrost will exert significant impacts on the hydrology, ecology, and stability of engineering in cold regions.
The Cryosphere has been undergoing a worldwide retreat, as seen in the decrease in the areal extent and volume of glaciers and in the areal extent of permafrost. This paper presents a systematic examination of the inherent stability changes of glaciers and permafrost caused by warming. Various study results suggest that over the past 30 years, the internal temperature of glaciers and permafrost exhibits an overall accelerating warming trend. The warming rate peaked in the mid-2000s and slowed slightly for several years afterward. In recent years, however, the warming rate has seemed to pick up again. The warming of glaciers and permafrost has exerted great impact on their stability, displayed as intensified melting,increased glacier surging, enlargement of supraglacial lakes, and increased permafrost degradation.Even without a future temperature increase, some glaciers will continue to shrink, and the number of surging glaciers will increase. The transition from low-temperature to high-temperature permafrost is a noticeable warning sign of a comprehensive degradation of permafrost. These results indicate that‘‘warming" glaciers and permafrost will exert significant impacts on the hydrology, ecology, and stability of engineering in cold regions.
引文
[1] Vaughan DG, Comiso JC, Allison I, et al. Observations:cryosphere. In:Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, editors. Climate change 2013:the physical science basis. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press; 2013. p. 317–82.
[2] Qin D, Ding Y, Xiao C, et al. Cryospheric science:research framework and disciplinary system. Nat Sci Rev 2018;5:255–68.
[3] Sun X, Ren G, Xu W, et al. Global land-surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT data set. Sci Bull 2017;62:236–8.
[4] Tian D, Dong W, Zhang H, et al. Future changes in coverage of 1.5°C and 2°C warming thresholds. Sci Bull 2017;62:1455–63.
[5] Huang M. Forty year’s study of glacier temperature in China. J Glaciol Geocryol1999;21:193–9(in Chinese).
[6] Smith SL, Romanovsky VE, Lewkowicz AG, et al. Thermal state of permafrost in North America:a contribution to the international polar year. Permafrost Periglac 2010;21:117–35.
[7] Wu Q, Zhang T, Liu Y. Thermal state of the active layer and permafrost along the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)railway from 2006 to 2010. Cryosphere2012;6:607–12.
[8] Li Z. Progress and application of research on glacier No. 1 at headwaters of Urumqi River, Tianshan, China. Beijing(China):Meteorological Press; 2011(in Chinese).
[9] Wu Q, Hou Y, Yun H, et al. Changes in active-layer thickness and near-surface permafrost between 2002 and 2012 in alpine ecosystems, Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau, China. Glob Planet Change 2015;124:149–55.
[10] Paterson W. The physics of glaciers. 3rd ed. Oxford:Elsevier Science Ltd; 1994.
[11] Huang M, Wang Z, Ren J. Ice temperature of glaciers in China. J Glaciol Geocryol 1982;4:20–8(in Chinese).
[12] Tibetan Scientific Expedition of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(TSECAS).Monograph on Mount Qomolangma scientific expedition(1966–1968):modern glacier, and geomorphology. Beijing:Science Press; 1975(in Chinese).
[13] Hou S, Chappellaz J, Jouzel J, et al. Summer temperature trend over the past two millennia using air content in Himalayan ice. Clim Past 2007;3:89–95.
[14] Thompson LG, Yao T, Davis ME, et al. Ice core records of climate variability on the Third Pole with emphasis on the Guliya ice cap, western Kunlun Mountains. Quat Sci Rev 2018;188:1–14.
[15] Vincent C, Meur EL, Six D, et al. Climate warming revealed by englacial temperatures at Col du D?me(4250 m, Mont Blanc area). Geophys Res Lett2007;34:L16502.
[16] Gilbert A, Vincent C. Atmospheric temperature changes over the 20th century at very high elevations in the European Alps from englacial temperatures.Geophys Res Lett 2013;40:2102–8.
[17] Hoelzle M, Darms G, Lüthi MP, et al. Evidence of accelerated englacial warming in the Monte Rosa area, Switzerland/Italy. Cryosphere 2011;5:231–43.
[18] Rabus B, Keith AE. Increase of 10 m ice temperature:climate warming or glacier thinning. J Glaciol 2002;48:279–86.
[19] Shen Y, Liu S, Wang G, et al. Fluctuations of glacier mass balance in watersheds of Qilian Mountain s and their impact on water resources of Hexi region. J Glaciol Geocryol 2001;23:244–50(in Chinese).
[20] Pu J, Yao T, Duan K, et al. Mass balance of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountains:a new observation. J Glaciol Geocryol 2005;27:199–204(in Chinese).
[21] Wang N, He J, Pu J, et al. Variations in equilibrium line altitude of the Qiyi Glacier, Qilian Mountains, over the past 50 years. Chin Sci Bull2010;55:3810–7.
[22] Noetzli J, Muehll DV. Permafrost in Switzerland 2006/2007 and 2007/2008Glaciological report(Permafrost)No. 8/9 of the Cryospheric Commission of the Swiss Academy of Sciences. Cryospheric Commission of the Swiss, Academy of Sciences; 2010.
[23] Zhao L, Wu Q, Marchenko SS, et al. Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the international polar year. Permafrost Periglac2010;21:198–207.
[24] Cheng G, Wu T. Responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental significance, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. J Geophys Res 2007;112:F02S03.
[25] Mauro G, Nicoletta C. Permafrost warming in a cooling Antarctica? Clim Change 2012;111:177–95.
[26] Romanovsky VE, Smith SL, Christiansen HH. Permafrost thermal state in the polar northern hemisphere during the International Polar Year 2007–2009:a synthesis. Permafrost Periglac 2010;21:106–16.
[27] Romanovsky VE, Sazonova TS, Balobaev VT, et al. Past and recent changes in air and permafrost temperatures in eastern Siberia. Glob Planet Change2007;56:399–413.
[28] Kholodov A, Gilichinsky D, Ostroumov V. Regional and local variability of modern natural changes in permafrost temperature in the Yakutia coastal lowlands, northeastern Siberia. In:Hinkel KM, editor. Proceedings of the 10th international conference on permafrost, Salekhard, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, Russia. Salekhard:The Northern Publisher; 2012. p.203–8.
[29] Romanovsky VE, Smith SL, Christiansen HH. Permafrost. In:Jeffries MO,Richter-Menge JA, Overland JE, editors. Arctic report card 2012.
[30] Johansson M,?kerman J, Keuper F, et al. Past and present permafrost temperatures in the Abisko Area:redrilling of boreholes. Ambio2011;40:558–65.
[31] Isaksen K, Oegad R, Etzelmüller B, et al. Degrading mountain permafrost in southern Norway:spatial and temporal variability of mean ground temperatures, 1999–2009. Permafrost Periglac 2011;22:361–77.
[32] Osterkamp TE. Thermal state of permafrost in Alaska during the fourth quarter of the Twentieth Century. In:Kane DL, Hinkel KM, editors. Proceedings of the9th international conference on permafrost, June 29–July 3, Fairbanks, Alaska,2. Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks; 2008. p.1333–8.
[33] Thropp JL. Spatial and temporal variability in permafrost conditions, northern Canada Doctor dissertation. Ottawa(Canada):University of Ottawa; 2010.
[34] Fortier R, LeBlanc AM, Wenbing Y. Impacts of permafrost degradation on a road embankment at Umiujaq in Nunavik(Québec), Canada. Can Geotech J2011;48:720–40.
[35] Romanovsky VE, Drozdov DS, Oberman NG, et al. Thermal state of permafrost in Russia. Permafrost Periglac 2010;21:136–55.
[36] Smith SL, Throop J, Lewkowicz AG. Recent changes in climate and permafrost temperatures at forested and polar desert sites in northern Canada. Can J Earth Sci 2012;49:914–24.
[37] Muhll DV. Thermal variations of mountain permafrost:an example of measurements since 1987 in the Swiss Alps. In:Visconti G, Beniston M,Ianorelli ED, editors. Global change and protected areas. Dordrecht(Netherlands):Springer; 2001. p. 83–95.
[38] Isaksen K, Sollid JL, Holmlund P, et al. Recent warming of mountain permafrost in Svalbard and Scandinavia. J Geophys Res Earth Surface 2007;112:F02S04.
[39] Oberman NG. Contemporary permafrost degradation of northern European Russia. In:Kane DL, Hinkel KM, editors. Proceedings of the 9th international conference on permafrost, June 29–July 3. Fairbanks(Alaska):Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks; 2008. p. 1305–10.
[40] Drozdov DS, Malkova GV, Ukraintseva NG, et al. Permafrost monitoring of southern tundra landscapes in the Russian European North and West Siberia.Proceedings of the 10th international conference on permafrost, Salekhard,Russia, June 25–29, 2012, 2. p. 65–70.
[41] Arzhanov MM, Mokhov II. Temperature trends in the permafrost of the northern hemisphere:comparison of model calculations with observations.Doklady Earth Sci 2013;449:319–23.
[42] Derksen C, Smith SL, Sharp M, et al. Variability and change in the Canadian cryosphere. Clim Change 2012;115:59–88.
[43] Ednie M, Smith S. Permafrost temperature data 2008–2014 from communitybased monitoring sites in Nunavut. Geol Surv Canada, Open File 7784 2015.
[44] Noetzli J, Voelksch I. Organisation and analysis of temperature data measured within the Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network(PERMOS). EGU general assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria, 2014. EGU2014-11376.
[45] Lüthi M, Funk M. Modeling heat flow in a cold, high-altitude glacier:interpretation of measurements from Colle Gnifetti. Swiss Alps J Glaciol2001;47:314–23.
[46] Lüthi MP. Rheology of cold firn and dynamics of a polythermal ice stream.Studies on Colle Gnifetti and Jakobshavns Isbrae Doctor dissertation. Zurich:ETH Zurich; 2000.
[47] Suter S. Cold firn and ice in the Monte Rosa and Mont Blanc areas:spatial occurrence, surface energy balance and climatic evidence Doctor dissertation. Zurich:ETH Zurich; 2002.
[48] Li Z, Li H, Chen Y. Mechanisms and simulation of accelerated shrinkage of continental glaciers:a case study of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in Eastern Tianshan,Central Asia. J Earth Sci 2011;22:423–30.
[49] Jacob T, Wahr J, Pfeffer WT, et al. Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature 2012;482:514–8.
[50] Gardner AS, Moholdt G, Cogley JG, et al. A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise:2003 to 2009. Science 2013;340:852–7.
[51] Marzeion B, Cogley JG, Richter K, et al. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes. Science 2014;345:919–21.
[52] Leclercq PW, Oerlemans J, Cogley JG. Estimating the glacier contribution to sea-level rise for the period 1800–2005. Surv Geophys 2011;32:519–35.
[53] Marzeion B, Jarosch AH, Hofer M. Past and future sea level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. Cryosphere 2012;6:1295–322.
[54] Marzeion B, Jarosch AH, Gregory JM. Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Cryosphere 2014;8:59–71.
[55] Shanggaun D, Liu S, Ding Y. Characterizing the May 2015 Karayaylak Glacier surging in the eastern Pamir Plateau using remote sensing. J Glaciol2016;62:944–53.
[56] Yao T, Xue Y, Chen D, et al. Recent Third Pole’s rapid warming accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensification and interactions between monsoon and environment:multidisciplinary approach with observation,modeling and analysis. Bull Am Meteor Soc 2018. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0057.1.
[57] Hands KA. Downwasting and supraglacial lake evolution on the debris-covered Ngozumpa Glacier, Khumbu Himal, Nepal Doctor dissertation. St Andrews(Scotland):University of St Andrews; 2004.
[58] Greuell W, Konzelmann T. Numerical modelling of the energy balance and the englacial temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Calculations for the ETHCamp location(West Greenland, 1155 m a.s.l.). Glob Planet Change1994;9:91–114.
[59] Pettersson R, Jansson P, Huwald H, et al. Spatial pattern and stability of the cold surface layer of Storglaciaren, Sweden. J Glaciol 2007;53:99–109.
[60] Gusmeroli A, Jansson P, Pettersson R, et al. Twenty years of cold surface layer thinning at Storglaci?ren, sub-Arctic Sweden, 1989–2009. J Glaciol2012;58:3–10.
[61] Wu Z, Liu S, Zhang S, et al. Accelerated thinning of Hei Valley No. 8 Glacier in the Tianshan Mountains, China. J Earth Sci 2013;24:1044–55.
[62] Kohler J, James TD, Murray T, et al. Acceleration in thinning rate on western Svalbard glaciers. Geophys Res Lett 2007;34:L18502.
[63] James TD, Murray T, Barrand NE, et al. Observations of widespread accelerated thinning in the upper reaches of Svalbard glaciers. Cryosphere Discuss2012;6:1085–115.
[64] Wang N, Xu B, Pu J, et al. Discovery of the water-rich ice layers in glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and its environmental significances. J Glaciol Geocryol2013;35:1371–81(in Chinese).
[65] Nelson FE, Anisimov OA, Shiklomanov NI. Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost. Nature 2001;410:889–90.
[66] Park H, Kim Y, Kimball JS. Widespread permafrost vulnerability and soil active layer increases over the high northern latitudes inferred from satellite remote sensing and process model assessments. Remote Sens Environ2016;175:349–58.
[67] Zhou X, Buchli T, Kinzelbach W, et al. Analysis of the Alpine research.Permafrost Periglac 2015;26:39–56.
[68] Wu Q, Zhang T. Changes in active layer thickness over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2007. J Geophys Res Atmos 2010;115:D09107.
[69] Xie C, William AG, Zhao L, et al. Temperature-dependent adjustments of the permafrost thermal profiles on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Arct Antarct Alpi Res 2015;47:719–28.
[2] Qin D, Ding Y, Xiao C, et al. Cryospheric science:research framework and disciplinary system. Nat Sci Rev 2018;5:255–68.
[3] Sun X, Ren G, Xu W, et al. Global land-surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT data set. Sci Bull 2017;62:236–8.
[4] Tian D, Dong W, Zhang H, et al. Future changes in coverage of 1.5°C and 2°C warming thresholds. Sci Bull 2017;62:1455–63.
[5] Huang M. Forty year’s study of glacier temperature in China. J Glaciol Geocryol1999;21:193–9(in Chinese).
[6] Smith SL, Romanovsky VE, Lewkowicz AG, et al. Thermal state of permafrost in North America:a contribution to the international polar year. Permafrost Periglac 2010;21:117–35.
[7] Wu Q, Zhang T, Liu Y. Thermal state of the active layer and permafrost along the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)railway from 2006 to 2010. Cryosphere2012;6:607–12.
[8] Li Z. Progress and application of research on glacier No. 1 at headwaters of Urumqi River, Tianshan, China. Beijing(China):Meteorological Press; 2011(in Chinese).
[9] Wu Q, Hou Y, Yun H, et al. Changes in active-layer thickness and near-surface permafrost between 2002 and 2012 in alpine ecosystems, Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau, China. Glob Planet Change 2015;124:149–55.
[10] Paterson W. The physics of glaciers. 3rd ed. Oxford:Elsevier Science Ltd; 1994.
[11] Huang M, Wang Z, Ren J. Ice temperature of glaciers in China. J Glaciol Geocryol 1982;4:20–8(in Chinese).
[12] Tibetan Scientific Expedition of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(TSECAS).Monograph on Mount Qomolangma scientific expedition(1966–1968):modern glacier, and geomorphology. Beijing:Science Press; 1975(in Chinese).
[13] Hou S, Chappellaz J, Jouzel J, et al. Summer temperature trend over the past two millennia using air content in Himalayan ice. Clim Past 2007;3:89–95.
[14] Thompson LG, Yao T, Davis ME, et al. Ice core records of climate variability on the Third Pole with emphasis on the Guliya ice cap, western Kunlun Mountains. Quat Sci Rev 2018;188:1–14.
[15] Vincent C, Meur EL, Six D, et al. Climate warming revealed by englacial temperatures at Col du D?me(4250 m, Mont Blanc area). Geophys Res Lett2007;34:L16502.
[16] Gilbert A, Vincent C. Atmospheric temperature changes over the 20th century at very high elevations in the European Alps from englacial temperatures.Geophys Res Lett 2013;40:2102–8.
[17] Hoelzle M, Darms G, Lüthi MP, et al. Evidence of accelerated englacial warming in the Monte Rosa area, Switzerland/Italy. Cryosphere 2011;5:231–43.
[18] Rabus B, Keith AE. Increase of 10 m ice temperature:climate warming or glacier thinning. J Glaciol 2002;48:279–86.
[19] Shen Y, Liu S, Wang G, et al. Fluctuations of glacier mass balance in watersheds of Qilian Mountain s and their impact on water resources of Hexi region. J Glaciol Geocryol 2001;23:244–50(in Chinese).
[20] Pu J, Yao T, Duan K, et al. Mass balance of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountains:a new observation. J Glaciol Geocryol 2005;27:199–204(in Chinese).
[21] Wang N, He J, Pu J, et al. Variations in equilibrium line altitude of the Qiyi Glacier, Qilian Mountains, over the past 50 years. Chin Sci Bull2010;55:3810–7.
[22] Noetzli J, Muehll DV. Permafrost in Switzerland 2006/2007 and 2007/2008Glaciological report(Permafrost)No. 8/9 of the Cryospheric Commission of the Swiss Academy of Sciences. Cryospheric Commission of the Swiss, Academy of Sciences; 2010.
[23] Zhao L, Wu Q, Marchenko SS, et al. Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the international polar year. Permafrost Periglac2010;21:198–207.
[24] Cheng G, Wu T. Responses of permafrost to climate change and their environmental significance, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. J Geophys Res 2007;112:F02S03.
[25] Mauro G, Nicoletta C. Permafrost warming in a cooling Antarctica? Clim Change 2012;111:177–95.
[26] Romanovsky VE, Smith SL, Christiansen HH. Permafrost thermal state in the polar northern hemisphere during the International Polar Year 2007–2009:a synthesis. Permafrost Periglac 2010;21:106–16.
[27] Romanovsky VE, Sazonova TS, Balobaev VT, et al. Past and recent changes in air and permafrost temperatures in eastern Siberia. Glob Planet Change2007;56:399–413.
[28] Kholodov A, Gilichinsky D, Ostroumov V. Regional and local variability of modern natural changes in permafrost temperature in the Yakutia coastal lowlands, northeastern Siberia. In:Hinkel KM, editor. Proceedings of the 10th international conference on permafrost, Salekhard, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, Russia. Salekhard:The Northern Publisher; 2012. p.203–8.
[29] Romanovsky VE, Smith SL, Christiansen HH. Permafrost. In:Jeffries MO,Richter-Menge JA, Overland JE, editors. Arctic report card 2012.
[30] Johansson M,?kerman J, Keuper F, et al. Past and present permafrost temperatures in the Abisko Area:redrilling of boreholes. Ambio2011;40:558–65.
[31] Isaksen K, Oegad R, Etzelmüller B, et al. Degrading mountain permafrost in southern Norway:spatial and temporal variability of mean ground temperatures, 1999–2009. Permafrost Periglac 2011;22:361–77.
[32] Osterkamp TE. Thermal state of permafrost in Alaska during the fourth quarter of the Twentieth Century. In:Kane DL, Hinkel KM, editors. Proceedings of the9th international conference on permafrost, June 29–July 3, Fairbanks, Alaska,2. Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks; 2008. p.1333–8.
[33] Thropp JL. Spatial and temporal variability in permafrost conditions, northern Canada Doctor dissertation. Ottawa(Canada):University of Ottawa; 2010.
[34] Fortier R, LeBlanc AM, Wenbing Y. Impacts of permafrost degradation on a road embankment at Umiujaq in Nunavik(Québec), Canada. Can Geotech J2011;48:720–40.
[35] Romanovsky VE, Drozdov DS, Oberman NG, et al. Thermal state of permafrost in Russia. Permafrost Periglac 2010;21:136–55.
[36] Smith SL, Throop J, Lewkowicz AG. Recent changes in climate and permafrost temperatures at forested and polar desert sites in northern Canada. Can J Earth Sci 2012;49:914–24.
[37] Muhll DV. Thermal variations of mountain permafrost:an example of measurements since 1987 in the Swiss Alps. In:Visconti G, Beniston M,Ianorelli ED, editors. Global change and protected areas. Dordrecht(Netherlands):Springer; 2001. p. 83–95.
[38] Isaksen K, Sollid JL, Holmlund P, et al. Recent warming of mountain permafrost in Svalbard and Scandinavia. J Geophys Res Earth Surface 2007;112:F02S04.
[39] Oberman NG. Contemporary permafrost degradation of northern European Russia. In:Kane DL, Hinkel KM, editors. Proceedings of the 9th international conference on permafrost, June 29–July 3. Fairbanks(Alaska):Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks; 2008. p. 1305–10.
[40] Drozdov DS, Malkova GV, Ukraintseva NG, et al. Permafrost monitoring of southern tundra landscapes in the Russian European North and West Siberia.Proceedings of the 10th international conference on permafrost, Salekhard,Russia, June 25–29, 2012, 2. p. 65–70.
[41] Arzhanov MM, Mokhov II. Temperature trends in the permafrost of the northern hemisphere:comparison of model calculations with observations.Doklady Earth Sci 2013;449:319–23.
[42] Derksen C, Smith SL, Sharp M, et al. Variability and change in the Canadian cryosphere. Clim Change 2012;115:59–88.
[43] Ednie M, Smith S. Permafrost temperature data 2008–2014 from communitybased monitoring sites in Nunavut. Geol Surv Canada, Open File 7784 2015.
[44] Noetzli J, Voelksch I. Organisation and analysis of temperature data measured within the Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network(PERMOS). EGU general assembly 2014, Vienna, Austria, 2014. EGU2014-11376.
[45] Lüthi M, Funk M. Modeling heat flow in a cold, high-altitude glacier:interpretation of measurements from Colle Gnifetti. Swiss Alps J Glaciol2001;47:314–23.
[46] Lüthi MP. Rheology of cold firn and dynamics of a polythermal ice stream.Studies on Colle Gnifetti and Jakobshavns Isbrae Doctor dissertation. Zurich:ETH Zurich; 2000.
[47] Suter S. Cold firn and ice in the Monte Rosa and Mont Blanc areas:spatial occurrence, surface energy balance and climatic evidence Doctor dissertation. Zurich:ETH Zurich; 2002.
[48] Li Z, Li H, Chen Y. Mechanisms and simulation of accelerated shrinkage of continental glaciers:a case study of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in Eastern Tianshan,Central Asia. J Earth Sci 2011;22:423–30.
[49] Jacob T, Wahr J, Pfeffer WT, et al. Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature 2012;482:514–8.
[50] Gardner AS, Moholdt G, Cogley JG, et al. A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise:2003 to 2009. Science 2013;340:852–7.
[51] Marzeion B, Cogley JG, Richter K, et al. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes. Science 2014;345:919–21.
[52] Leclercq PW, Oerlemans J, Cogley JG. Estimating the glacier contribution to sea-level rise for the period 1800–2005. Surv Geophys 2011;32:519–35.
[53] Marzeion B, Jarosch AH, Hofer M. Past and future sea level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. Cryosphere 2012;6:1295–322.
[54] Marzeion B, Jarosch AH, Gregory JM. Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Cryosphere 2014;8:59–71.
[55] Shanggaun D, Liu S, Ding Y. Characterizing the May 2015 Karayaylak Glacier surging in the eastern Pamir Plateau using remote sensing. J Glaciol2016;62:944–53.
[56] Yao T, Xue Y, Chen D, et al. Recent Third Pole’s rapid warming accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensification and interactions between monsoon and environment:multidisciplinary approach with observation,modeling and analysis. Bull Am Meteor Soc 2018. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0057.1.
[57] Hands KA. Downwasting and supraglacial lake evolution on the debris-covered Ngozumpa Glacier, Khumbu Himal, Nepal Doctor dissertation. St Andrews(Scotland):University of St Andrews; 2004.
[58] Greuell W, Konzelmann T. Numerical modelling of the energy balance and the englacial temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Calculations for the ETHCamp location(West Greenland, 1155 m a.s.l.). Glob Planet Change1994;9:91–114.
[59] Pettersson R, Jansson P, Huwald H, et al. Spatial pattern and stability of the cold surface layer of Storglaciaren, Sweden. J Glaciol 2007;53:99–109.
[60] Gusmeroli A, Jansson P, Pettersson R, et al. Twenty years of cold surface layer thinning at Storglaci?ren, sub-Arctic Sweden, 1989–2009. J Glaciol2012;58:3–10.
[61] Wu Z, Liu S, Zhang S, et al. Accelerated thinning of Hei Valley No. 8 Glacier in the Tianshan Mountains, China. J Earth Sci 2013;24:1044–55.
[62] Kohler J, James TD, Murray T, et al. Acceleration in thinning rate on western Svalbard glaciers. Geophys Res Lett 2007;34:L18502.
[63] James TD, Murray T, Barrand NE, et al. Observations of widespread accelerated thinning in the upper reaches of Svalbard glaciers. Cryosphere Discuss2012;6:1085–115.
[64] Wang N, Xu B, Pu J, et al. Discovery of the water-rich ice layers in glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and its environmental significances. J Glaciol Geocryol2013;35:1371–81(in Chinese).
[65] Nelson FE, Anisimov OA, Shiklomanov NI. Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost. Nature 2001;410:889–90.
[66] Park H, Kim Y, Kimball JS. Widespread permafrost vulnerability and soil active layer increases over the high northern latitudes inferred from satellite remote sensing and process model assessments. Remote Sens Environ2016;175:349–58.
[67] Zhou X, Buchli T, Kinzelbach W, et al. Analysis of the Alpine research.Permafrost Periglac 2015;26:39–56.
[68] Wu Q, Zhang T. Changes in active layer thickness over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2007. J Geophys Res Atmos 2010;115:D09107.
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