Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)
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摘要
Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1(Community Atmosphere Model, version 5)[CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon(GM)features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation(GMP,the local summer precipitation), GM area(GMA), and GM percentage(the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes:(1)The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5℃ temperature goal and increases under the 2.0℃ temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage.(2) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation.(3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals.(4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals.The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies.In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.
Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1(Community Atmosphere Model, version 5)[CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon(GM)features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation(GMP,the local summer precipitation), GM area(GMA), and GM percentage(the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes:(1)The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5℃ temperature goal and increases under the 2.0℃ temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage.(2) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation.(3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals.(4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals.The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies.In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.
Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1(Community Atmosphere Model, version 5)[CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon(GM)features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation(GMP,the local summer precipitation), GM area(GMA), and GM percentage(the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes:(1)The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5℃ temperature goal and increases under the 2.0℃ temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage.(2) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation.(3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals.(4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals.The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies.In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.
引文
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Sanderson,B.M.,Coauthors,2017:Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5?C and 2?C futures.Earth System Dynamics,8,827-847,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017.
Seo,K.H.,and J.Ok,2013:Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP3 Models:Results from the best model ensemble.J.Climate,26,1807-1817,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00109.1.
Seth,A.,S.A.Rauscher,M.Biasutti,A.Giannini,S.J.Camargo,and M.Rojas,2013:CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions.J.Climate,26,7328-7351,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1.
Sutton,R.T.,B.W.Dong,and J.M.Gregory,2007:Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change:IPCC AR4model results and comparison with observations.Geophys.Res.Lett.,34,L02701,https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028164.
Taylor,K.E.,2001:Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram.J.Geophys.Res.,106,7183-7192,https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719.
UNFCCC,2015:Adoption of the Paris Agreement.UNFCCC.
Wang,B.,and Q.H.Ding,2008:Global monsoon:Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics.Dyn.Atmos.Oceans,44,165-183,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.05.002.
Wang,B.,S.Y.Yim,J.Y.Lee,J.Liu,and K.J.Ha,2013:Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario.Climate Dyn.,42,83-100,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1769-x.
Wang,G.J.,W.J.Cai,B.L.Gan,L.X.Wu,A.Santoso,X.P.Lin,Z.H.Chen,and M.J.McPhaden,2017:Continued increase of extreme El Ni?no frequency long after 1.5?C warming stabilization.Nat.Clim.Change,7,568-572,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3351.
Xie,P.P.,and P.A.Arkin,1997:Global precipitation:a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,78,2539-2558,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2.
Xie,S.P.,C.Deser,G.A.Vecchi,J.Ma,H.Y.Teng,and A.T.Wittenberg,2010:Global warming pattern formation:Sea surface temperature and rainfall.J.Climate,23,966-986,https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.
Chadwick,R.,P.L.Wu,P.Good,and T.Andrews,2013:Asymmetries in tropical rainfall and circulation patterns in idealised CO2removal experiments.Climate Dyn.,40,295-316,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1287-2.
Chou,C.,J.D.Neelin,C.A.Chen,and J.Y.Tu,2009:Evaluating the“rich-get-richer”mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming.J.Climate,22,1982-2005,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1.
Endo,H.,and A.Kitoh,2014:Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate.Geophys.Res.Lett.,41,1704-1711,https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059158.
Endo,H.,A.Kitoh,and H.Ueda,2018:A unique feature of the Asian summer monsoon response to global warming:The role of different land-sea thermal contrast change between the lower and upper troposphere.Sola,14,57-63,https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2018-010.
Good,P.,B.B.B.Booth,R.Chadwick,E.Hawkins,A.Jonko,and J.A.Lowe,2016:Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming.Nature Communications,7,13667,https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13667.
Held,I.M.,and B.J.Soden,2006:Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming.J.Climate,19,5686-5699,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1.
Held,I.M.,M.Winton,K.Takahashi,T.Delworth,F.R.Zeng,and G.K.Vallis,2010:Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly to preindustrial forcing.J.Climate,23,2418-2427,https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1.
Hirota,N.,Y.N.Takayabu,M.Watanabe,and M.Kimoto,2011:Precipitation reproducibility over tropical oceans and its relationship to the double ITCZ problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5climate models.J.Climate,24,4859-4873,https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4156.1.
Hsu,P.C.,T.Li,and B.Wang,2011:Trends in global monsoon area and precipitation over the past 30 years.Geophys.Res.Lett.,38,L08701,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046893.
Hsu,P.C.,T.Li,H.Murakami,and A.Kitoh,2013:Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models.J.Geophys.Res.,118,1247-1260,https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50145.
Kay,J.E.,Coauthors,2015:The Community Earth System Model(CESM)large ensemble project:A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,96,1333-1349,https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.
Kitoh,A.,H.Endo,K.K.Kumar,I.F.A.Cavalcanti,P.Goswami,and T.J.Zhou,2013:Monsoons in a changing world:A regional perspective in a global context.J.Geophys.Res.,118,3053-3065,https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50258.
Lee,D.,S.-K.Min,E.Fischer,H.Shiogama,I.Bethke,L.Lierhammer,and J.F.Scinocca,2018:Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics.Environmental Research Letters,13,044033,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d.
Lee,J.Y.,and B.Wang,2014:Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5.Climate Dyn.,42,101-119,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0.
Long,S.M.,S.P.Xie,X.T.Zheng,and Q.Y.Liu,2014:Fast and slow responses to global warming:Sea surface temperature and precipitation patterns.J.Climate,27,285-299,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00297.1.
Sanderson,B.M.,B.C.O’Neill,and C.Tebaldi,2016:What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?Geophys.Res.Lett.,43,7133-7142,https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069563.
Sanderson,B.M.,Coauthors,2017:Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5?C and 2?C futures.Earth System Dynamics,8,827-847,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017.
Seo,K.H.,and J.Ok,2013:Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP3 Models:Results from the best model ensemble.J.Climate,26,1807-1817,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00109.1.
Seth,A.,S.A.Rauscher,M.Biasutti,A.Giannini,S.J.Camargo,and M.Rojas,2013:CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions.J.Climate,26,7328-7351,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1.
Sutton,R.T.,B.W.Dong,and J.M.Gregory,2007:Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change:IPCC AR4model results and comparison with observations.Geophys.Res.Lett.,34,L02701,https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028164.
Taylor,K.E.,2001:Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram.J.Geophys.Res.,106,7183-7192,https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719.
UNFCCC,2015:Adoption of the Paris Agreement.UNFCCC.
Wang,B.,and Q.H.Ding,2008:Global monsoon:Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics.Dyn.Atmos.Oceans,44,165-183,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.05.002.
Wang,B.,S.Y.Yim,J.Y.Lee,J.Liu,and K.J.Ha,2013:Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario.Climate Dyn.,42,83-100,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1769-x.
Wang,G.J.,W.J.Cai,B.L.Gan,L.X.Wu,A.Santoso,X.P.Lin,Z.H.Chen,and M.J.McPhaden,2017:Continued increase of extreme El Ni?no frequency long after 1.5?C warming stabilization.Nat.Clim.Change,7,568-572,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3351.
Xie,P.P.,and P.A.Arkin,1997:Global precipitation:a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,78,2539-2558,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2.
Xie,S.P.,C.Deser,G.A.Vecchi,J.Ma,H.Y.Teng,and A.T.Wittenberg,2010:Global warming pattern formation:Sea surface temperature and rainfall.J.Climate,23,966-986,https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.