A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE QUALITY CONTROL METHOD FOR GUANGDONG GPS/PWV DATA AND ITS EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN ITS ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON
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摘要
We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor(GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS/PWV data is assimilated into the GRAPES 3DVAR system. This method can reject the outliers effectively. After establishing the criterion for quality control, we did three numerical experiments to investigate the impact on the precipitation forecast with and without the quality-controlled GPS/PWV data before they are assimilated into the system.In the numerical experiments, two precipitation cases(on 6 to 7 May, 2010 and 27 to 28 April, 2012 respectively) that occurred in the annually first raining season of Guangdong were selected. The results indicated that after quality control,only the GPS/PWV data that deviates little from the NCEP/PWV data can be assimilated into the system, has reasonable adjustment of the initial water vapor above Guangdong, and eventually improves the intensity and location of 24-h precipitation forecast significantly.
We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor(GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS/PWV data is assimilated into the GRAPES 3DVAR system. This method can reject the outliers effectively. After establishing the criterion for quality control, we did three numerical experiments to investigate the impact on the precipitation forecast with and without the quality-controlled GPS/PWV data before they are assimilated into the system.In the numerical experiments, two precipitation cases(on 6 to 7 May, 2010 and 27 to 28 April, 2012 respectively) that occurred in the annually first raining season of Guangdong were selected. The results indicated that after quality control,only the GPS/PWV data that deviates little from the NCEP/PWV data can be assimilated into the system, has reasonable adjustment of the initial water vapor above Guangdong, and eventually improves the intensity and location of 24-h precipitation forecast significantly.
We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor(GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS/PWV data is assimilated into the GRAPES 3DVAR system. This method can reject the outliers effectively. After establishing the criterion for quality control, we did three numerical experiments to investigate the impact on the precipitation forecast with and without the quality-controlled GPS/PWV data before they are assimilated into the system.In the numerical experiments, two precipitation cases(on 6 to 7 May, 2010 and 27 to 28 April, 2012 respectively) that occurred in the annually first raining season of Guangdong were selected. The results indicated that after quality control,only the GPS/PWV data that deviates little from the NCEP/PWV data can be assimilated into the system, has reasonable adjustment of the initial water vapor above Guangdong, and eventually improves the intensity and location of 24-h precipitation forecast significantly.
引文
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[11]DING Jin-cai,YUAN Zhao-hong,YANG Yin-ming,et al.Evaluation of the continuous experiment of3-dimensional variation assimilation of GPS/PWV data into MM5 model to improve the precipitation forecasts[J].Meteorol Mon,2007,33(6):11-18(in Chinese).
[12]GUO Y R,KUO Y H,DUDHIA J,et al.Four-dimensional variational data assimilation of heterogeneons mesoscale observations for a strong convective case[J].Mon Wea Rev,2000,128(3):619-643.
[13]KOU Y H,GOU Y R,WESTWATER E R.Assimilation of precipitable water vapor into mesoscale numerical model[J].Mon Wea Rev,1993,121(4):1 215-1 238.
[14]KOU Y H,ZOU X,GOU Y R.Variational assimilation of precipitable water using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale adjoint model[J].Mon Wea Rev,1996,124(1):122-147.
[15]SMITH T L,BENJAMIN S G,SHWARTZ B E,et al.Using GPS-IWV in a 4-D data assimilation system[J].Earth Plants Space,2000,52(2):921-926.
[16]DE P M,ZOU X.A case study of the variational assimilation of GPS zenith delay observations into a mesoscale model[J].J Appl Meteorol,2001,40(9):1559-1 576.
[17]WMO.Guide to meteorological instrument and methods of observation[R].WMO-No 8,2008.
[18]DING Wei-yu,WAN Qi-lin,YAN Jing-hua,et al.Impact of the initialization on mesoscale model prediction in South China[J].J Trop Meteorol,2006,12(1):83-84.
[19]XUE J S,CHEN D H,CHEN X.Great advancement in developing new generation NWP model system in China[C]//Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Annual Report.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2003:8-9.
[2]WANG Xiao-ya,ZHU Wen-yao,YAN Hao-jian,et al.Preliminary results of precipitable water vapor monitored by ground-based GPS[J].Sci Atmos Sinica,1999,23(5):605-612(in Chinese).
[3]ZHANG Bin,XUE Gen-yuan,ZHANG Shuang-cheng.On the near real-time derivation of precipitable water vapor in the atmosphere by ground-based GPS of Zhejiang province based on IGS ultra tracking stations[J].J Trop Meteorol,2009,25(2):222-226(in Chinese).
[4]LI Hong-li,WAN Rong,XIE You-cai.Application of ground-based GPS water vapor in LAPS[J].J Trop Meteorol,2010,26(6):702-709(in Chinese).
[5]GU Xiao-ping,WANG Chang-yao,WANG Wen,et al.Research on the local correction model of atmospheric dry delay in GPS remote sensing water vapor[J].J Trop Meteorol,2005,11(1):78-85.
[6]WANG Yong,LIU Lin-tao,HAO Xiao-guang,et al.The study of the compute project and reliability of quasi-real-time ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor[J].J Trop Meteorol,2007,23(2):177-181(in Chinese).
[7]WANG Yong,LIU Yan-ping,LIU Lin-tao,et al.The study of directly calculating precipitable water vapor with zenith tropospheric delay of GPS network[J].J Trop Meteorol,2007,23(5):510-514(in Chinese).
[8]DING Jin-cai.Review of weather prediction verifying techniques[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteorol,1995,18(1):143-150(in Chinese).
[9]YAO Jian-qun.Analysis of the characteristics of GPSprecipitable water vapor for a rainstorm in Shanghai on August 22,2004[C]//Collection of Papers on Techniques of Weather Forecasting.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005:36-41(in Chinese).
[10]YUAN Zhao-hong.Variational assimilation of GPSprecipitable water into MM5 mesoscale model[J].Acta Meteorol Sinica,2005,63(4):391-404(in Chinese).
[11]DING Jin-cai,YUAN Zhao-hong,YANG Yin-ming,et al.Evaluation of the continuous experiment of3-dimensional variation assimilation of GPS/PWV data into MM5 model to improve the precipitation forecasts[J].Meteorol Mon,2007,33(6):11-18(in Chinese).
[12]GUO Y R,KUO Y H,DUDHIA J,et al.Four-dimensional variational data assimilation of heterogeneons mesoscale observations for a strong convective case[J].Mon Wea Rev,2000,128(3):619-643.
[13]KOU Y H,GOU Y R,WESTWATER E R.Assimilation of precipitable water vapor into mesoscale numerical model[J].Mon Wea Rev,1993,121(4):1 215-1 238.
[14]KOU Y H,ZOU X,GOU Y R.Variational assimilation of precipitable water using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale adjoint model[J].Mon Wea Rev,1996,124(1):122-147.
[15]SMITH T L,BENJAMIN S G,SHWARTZ B E,et al.Using GPS-IWV in a 4-D data assimilation system[J].Earth Plants Space,2000,52(2):921-926.
[16]DE P M,ZOU X.A case study of the variational assimilation of GPS zenith delay observations into a mesoscale model[J].J Appl Meteorol,2001,40(9):1559-1 576.
[17]WMO.Guide to meteorological instrument and methods of observation[R].WMO-No 8,2008.
[18]DING Wei-yu,WAN Qi-lin,YAN Jing-hua,et al.Impact of the initialization on mesoscale model prediction in South China[J].J Trop Meteorol,2006,12(1):83-84.
[19]XUE J S,CHEN D H,CHEN X.Great advancement in developing new generation NWP model system in China[C]//Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Annual Report.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2003:8-9.