LAPS同化GPS/PWV资料在暴雨预报中的应用研究
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摘要
利用LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)系统同化GPS(Global Positioning System)/PWV(Precipitable Water Vapor)资料,分析GPS/PWV资料对LAPS输出场的影响,并结合WRF模式,将LAPS输出场作为其初始场进行降水预报,进一步考察GPS/PWV资料对降水预报的作用。选取2009年6月28日湖北地区的一次强降水过程,设计三种方案进行试验。结果表明:同化GPS/PWV资料后对LAPS湿度场有显著的改善,而对高度场及风场的作用则不明显;GPS/PWV资料对区域平均可降水量的影响比雷达资料大一个量级;与此同时,利用多种评分方法对6 h累计降水做了检验,分析结果表明同化GPS/PWV资料能够有效地改进WRF模式的初始场,增加丰富的中小尺度信息,并对随后的确定性预报产生正影响。
In order to evaluate the improvement of the GPS/PWV data assimilation to the initial humidity field and precipitation forecast field of numerical model,a series of assimilation experiments were performed using the LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) and WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model.One heavy rainfall process in Hubei Area was taken as the experimental research object.The result shows that the assimilation of GPS/PWV is effective in reducing the error of PW in the LAPS humidity field,however its impact on potential height and wind fields is not so notable.The impacts of GPS/PWV are greater than radar data by comparing the total precipitable water analyzed by LAPS in different schemes.Different weather forecast scores show that the initial moisture field in WRF is significantly improved by using GPS/PWV data,and the improved moisture field in initial condition leads to positive effect on the forecast of rainfall.
In order to evaluate the improvement of the GPS/PWV data assimilation to the initial humidity field and precipitation forecast field of numerical model,a series of assimilation experiments were performed using the LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) and WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model.One heavy rainfall process in Hubei Area was taken as the experimental research object.The result shows that the assimilation of GPS/PWV is effective in reducing the error of PW in the LAPS humidity field,however its impact on potential height and wind fields is not so notable.The impacts of GPS/PWV are greater than radar data by comparing the total precipitable water analyzed by LAPS in different schemes.Different weather forecast scores show that the initial moisture field in WRF is significantly improved by using GPS/PWV data,and the improved moisture field in initial condition leads to positive effect on the forecast of rainfall.
引文
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丁金才,叶其欣,马晓星,等.2006.区域GPS气象网站点合理布设的几点依据.气象,32(2):34-39.
丁金才,袁招洪,杨引明,等.2007.GPS/PWV资料三维变分同化改进MM5降水预报连续试验的评估.气象,33(6):12-17.
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徐桂荣,陈波,万蓉,等.2008.地基GPS不同水汽反演方法的误差分析.暴雨灾害,27(4):346-350.
尤凤春,魏东,王雨.2009.北京奥运期间多模式降水检验及集成试验.气象,35(11):3-8.
袁招洪.2004.GPS资料在中尺度数值预报模式中的应用研究.南京,南京气象学院.
袁招洪.2005.GPS可降水量资料应用于MM5模式的变分同化试验.气象学报,63(4):391-404.
袁招洪,丁金才,陈敏.2004.GPS观测资料应用于中尺度数值模式的初步研究.气象学报,62(2):200-212.
赵美,李永,张军,等.2011.高空700 hPa规定层比湿与地面降水关系分析.江苏省气象学会第七届学术交流会论文集,13.
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Guo Y R,Y H Kuo,J Dudhia,et al.2000.Four dimen.sional variational data assimilation of heterogeneous mesoscale observations for a strong case.Mon Wea Rev,128(3)s619-642.
Ha-Taek Kwon.2012.Assimilation of Ground-Based GPS Measurements;Impact of GPS-PW and ZTD on the Rainfall Forecast Over the Korean Peninsula.16th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere,Oceans,and Land Surface(IOAS-AOLS).
丁金才,叶其欣,马晓星,等.2006.区域GPS气象网站点合理布设的几点依据.气象,32(2):34-39.
丁金才,袁招洪,杨引明,等.2007.GPS/PWV资料三维变分同化改进MM5降水预报连续试验的评估.气象,33(6):12-17.
李红莉.2009.GPS水汽资料在中尺度分析及预报中的应用研究.第26届中国气象学会年会灾害天气事件的预警、预报及防灾减灾分会场论文集,1143-1152.
李红莉,崔春光,王志斌,等.2009.LAPS的设计原理、模块功能与产品应用.暴雨灾害,28(1):64-70.
李红莉,万蓉,谢有才.2010.利用LAPS系统同化地基GPS水汽资料的应用研究.热带气象学报,26(6):702-709.
李红莉,张兵,陈波.2008.局地分析和预报系统(LAPS)及其应用.气象科技,36(1):20-24.
刘瑞霞,陈洪滨,师春香,等.2011.多源观测数据在LAPS三维云量场分析中的应用.应用气象学报,22(1):123-128.
彭菊香,李红莉,崔春光.2011.华中区域LAPS中尺度分析场的检验与评估.气象,37(2):170-175.
盛裴轩,毛节泰,李建国,等.2003.大气物理学.北京:北京大学出版社,332-333.
王勇,刘严萍,柳洪涛,等.2007.区域GPS网对流层延迟直接推算可降水量研究.热带气象学报,23(5):510-514.
徐桂荣,陈波,万蓉,等.2008.地基GPS不同水汽反演方法的误差分析.暴雨灾害,27(4):346-350.
尤凤春,魏东,王雨.2009.北京奥运期间多模式降水检验及集成试验.气象,35(11):3-8.
袁招洪.2004.GPS资料在中尺度数值预报模式中的应用研究.南京,南京气象学院.
袁招洪.2005.GPS可降水量资料应用于MM5模式的变分同化试验.气象学报,63(4):391-404.
袁招洪,丁金才,陈敏.2004.GPS观测资料应用于中尺度数值模式的初步研究.气象学报,62(2):200-212.
赵美,李永,张军,等.2011.高空700 hPa规定层比湿与地面降水关系分析.江苏省气象学会第七届学术交流会论文集,13.
Bevis M S,Businger A R,Chiswell,et al.1994.GPS meteorology-.Mapping zenith wet delays onto precipitable water.J Appl Meteorol,33(3):379-386.
Bevis M S,Businger T A,Herring,et al.1992.GPS Meteorology:Remote sensing of atmospheric water vapor using the global positioning system.J Geophy Res,97(D14):15787-15801.
Birkcnheuer D.2001.Utilizing varialional methods to incorporate a variety of satellite data in the LAPS moisture analysis//Preprints,11th Conf.on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography.Madison,WI,Amer.Meteor Soc.
Guo Y R,Y H Kuo,J Dudhia,et al.2000.Four dimen.sional variational data assimilation of heterogeneous mesoscale observations for a strong case.Mon Wea Rev,128(3)s619-642.
Ha-Taek Kwon.2012.Assimilation of Ground-Based GPS Measurements;Impact of GPS-PW and ZTD on the Rainfall Forecast Over the Korean Peninsula.16th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere,Oceans,and Land Surface(IOAS-AOLS).