考虑策略型消费者损失厌恶下的新产品预售与退货策略研究
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摘要
新产品通常面临较大的市场不确定性,如何保证产品的供应与市场需求的匹配性对于企业来说尤为重要,企业通过预售提前获取需求信息有助于实现这一目标.本文在考虑策略型消费者损失厌恶下研究了零售商的预售及退货策略,首先基于策略型与短视型消费者的行为特点构建预售与正常销售两阶段模型,对允许退货与不允许退货两种预售策略展开对比研究,接着通过构建两种策略下零售商的收益模型得出相应的最优预售价格和最优退货价格,并给出退货价格的取值范围.研究发现,由于策略型消费者的损失厌恶,零售商不得不降低预售期产品的价格.当预售期结束后的退货价格不高于某一特定的值时,退货策略的实施能够使零售商获得更优收益,并且存在一个最优的退货价格,使得退货模式下零售商的期望利润达到最大值.
New products usually face greater market uncertainty.How to ensure the matching between product supply and market demand is particularly important for enterprises.Obtaining demand information in advance is helpful to achieve this goal.Considering the loss aversion of strategic consumers,this paper studies retailers' advance selling and return policies.Based on the behavioral characteristics of strategic and myopic consumers,a two-stage model of pre-sale and normal sales is constructed.This paper makes a comparative study on the two advance selling strategies of permitted return and non-permitted return.By constructing the profit model of retailers under the two strategies,the optimal pre-sale price and the optimal return price are obtained,and the corresponding range of return price is given.It is found that the retailer has to lower price for pre-sale products because of loss aversion among strategic consumers.When the return price after the end of the presale period is not higher than a specific value,the implementation of the return strategy can enable the retailer to obtain a better return,and there is an optimal return price.It makes the expected profit of the retailer reach the maximum under the return mode.
New products usually face greater market uncertainty.How to ensure the matching between product supply and market demand is particularly important for enterprises.Obtaining demand information in advance is helpful to achieve this goal.Considering the loss aversion of strategic consumers,this paper studies retailers' advance selling and return policies.Based on the behavioral characteristics of strategic and myopic consumers,a two-stage model of pre-sale and normal sales is constructed.This paper makes a comparative study on the two advance selling strategies of permitted return and non-permitted return.By constructing the profit model of retailers under the two strategies,the optimal pre-sale price and the optimal return price are obtained,and the corresponding range of return price is given.It is found that the retailer has to lower price for pre-sale products because of loss aversion among strategic consumers.When the return price after the end of the presale period is not higher than a specific value,the implementation of the return strategy can enable the retailer to obtain a better return,and there is an optimal return price.It makes the expected profit of the retailer reach the maximum under the return mode.
引文
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[2]Hui S K,Eliashberg J,George E I.Modeling DVD preorder and sales:An optimal stopping approach[J].Marketing Science,2008,27(6):1097-1110.
[3]Li C,Zhang F.Advance demand information,price discrimination,and preorder strategies[J].Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,2013,15(1):57-71.
[4]Zeng C.Optimal advance selling strategy under price commitment[J].Pacific Economic Review,2013,18(2):233-258.
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[8]谷艳红,罗新星,朱名勋.消费者风险厌恶下的期权预售模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(10):2556-2563.Gu Y H,Luo X X,Zhu M X.Research on option advance sales model under comsumers'risk aversion[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2018,38(10):2556-2563.
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[14]Yu M,Ahn H,Kapuscinsk R.Rationing capacity in advance selling to signal quality[J].Management Science,2015,61(3):560-577.
[15]李辉,齐二石.基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(2):50-56.Li H,Qi E S.Advance selling in presence of uncertainty market size[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(2):50-56.
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[18]Cachon G P,Feldman P.Is advance selling desirable with competition?[J].Marketing Science,2017,36(2):214-231.
[19]Zhao X,Pang Z,Stecke K E.When does a retailer's advance selling capability benefit manufacturer,retailer,or both?[J].Production and Operations Management Society,2016,25(6):1073-1087.
[20]Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect theory:An analysis of decisions under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[21]柳键,邱国斌,黄健.面对损失厌恶消费者的零售商订货定价策略及激励问题[J].控制与决策,2014,29(1):107-112.Liu J,Qiu G B,Huang J.Pricing and ordering strategies and stimulated issue of retailer facing loss-aversion customer[J].Control and Decision,2014,29(1):107-112.
[22]舒斯亮,柳键.面向消费者损失厌恶的不同竞争结构下供应链决策行为研究[J].软科学,2016,30(12):140-144.Shu S L,Liu J.Supply chain decision-making behavior under different competitive structures facing customer loss aversion[J].Soft Science,2016,30(12):140-144.
[23]Ketzenberg M E,Zuidwijk R A.Optimal pricing,ordering,and return policies for consumer goods[J].Production and Operations Management,2009,18(3):344-360.
[24]Xiao T,Shi K,Yang D.Coordination of a supply chain w:ith consumer return under demand uncertainty[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2010,124(1):171-180.
[25]李勇建,许磊,杨晓丽.产品预售、退货策略和消费者无缺陷退货行为[J].南开管理评论,2012(5):105-113.Li Y J,Xu L,Yang X L.Advance selling,return policy and failure false return for a newsvendor retailer[J].Nankai Business Review,2012(5):105-113.
[26]Li Y J,Xu L,Li D H.Examining relationships between the return policy,product quality,and pricing strategy in online direct selling[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2013,144(2):451-460.
[27]Yoo S H.Product quality and return policy in a supply chain under risk aversion of a supplier[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2014,154(3):146-155.
[28]Xu L,Li Y J,Govindan K,et al.Consumer returns policies with endogenous deadline and supply chain coordination[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,242(1):88-99.
[29]Giri B C,Roy B,Maiti T.Multi-manufacturer pricing and quality management strategies in the presence of brand differentiation and return policy[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2017,105:146-157.
[30]何莹莹,郭春香.预售模式下基于策略型消费者退货行为的运费险决策研究[J].管理学报,2018,15(8):1249-1255.He Y Y,Guo C X.Study on freight insurance decision making with consideration of strategic consumer returns in the pre-sale[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2018,15(8):1249-1255.
[31]毛照昉,刘弯弯,李辉.季节性易逝品预售与回购联合决策研究[J].管理科学学报,2016,19(2):74-84.Mao Z F,Liu W W,Li H.Joint strategy of advance-selling and buy-back for seasonal perishable products[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2016,19(2):74-84.
[32]Silver E A,Pyke D F,Peterso R.Inventory management and production planning and scheduling[M].New York:John Wiley and Sons,1998.
[2]Hui S K,Eliashberg J,George E I.Modeling DVD preorder and sales:An optimal stopping approach[J].Marketing Science,2008,27(6):1097-1110.
[3]Li C,Zhang F.Advance demand information,price discrimination,and preorder strategies[J].Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,2013,15(1):57-71.
[4]Zeng C.Optimal advance selling strategy under price commitment[J].Pacific Economic Review,2013,18(2):233-258.
[5]Nasiry J,Popescu I.Advance selling when consumers regret[J].Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177.
[6]Loginova O.Advance selling,competition,and brand substitutability[R].Working Paper,2016.
[7]周雄伟,李俊,蔡丹,等.预售背景下易逝品销售的时间策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(6):91-100.Zhou X W,Li J,Cai D,et al.Marketing time strategy of advance selling for perishable goods[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(6):91-100.
[8]谷艳红,罗新星,朱名勋.消费者风险厌恶下的期权预售模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(10):2556-2563.Gu Y H,Luo X X,Zhu M X.Research on option advance sales model under comsumers'risk aversion[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2018,38(10):2556-2563.
[9]徐浩轩,张金隆,龚业明,等.网络预售产品的订货策略[J].系统工程学报,2017,32(6):843-864.Xu H X,Zhang J L,Gong Y M,et al.Ordering policies of advance selling products for online retailers[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2017,32(6):843-864.
[10]邵腾伟,吕秀梅.生鲜电商众筹预售与众包生产联合决策[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(6):1502-1511.Shao T W,Lii X M.Joint decision between crowdfunding in preselling and crowdsourcing in production on fresh agricultural products[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2018,38(6):1502—1511.
[11]鄢章华,刘蕾.考虑资金时间价值的销售商预售策略研究[J].管理评论,2018,30(5):262-272.Yan Z H,Liu L.Advance selling strategies for retailers taking into account the time-value of money[J].Business Review,2018,30(5):262-272.
[12]Swinney R.Selling to strategic consumers when product value is uncertain:The value of matching supply and demand[J].Management Science,2011,57(10):1737-1751.
[13]Zhao X,Stecke K E.Pre-orders for new to-be-released products considering consumer loss aversion[J].Production and Operations Management Society,2009,19(2):198-215.
[14]Yu M,Ahn H,Kapuscinsk R.Rationing capacity in advance selling to signal quality[J].Management Science,2015,61(3):560-577.
[15]李辉,齐二石.基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(2):50-56.Li H,Qi E S.Advance selling in presence of uncertainty market size[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(2):50-56.
[16]毛照昉,王方圆.基于消费者行为和估值折扣差异的易逝品两期定价决策研究[J].管理学报,2017,14(3):441-450.Mao Z F,Wang F Y.Two-period pricing decision on perishable products considering difference of customer behavior and valuation discount[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2017,14(3):441-450.
[17]张旭梅,王大飞.基于消费者策略行为的产品服务系统两周期定价策略研究[J].管理学报,2017(12):1870-1881.Zhang X M,Wang D F.Pricing strategies for a two-period product service system based strategic consumer behavior[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2017(12):1870-1881.
[18]Cachon G P,Feldman P.Is advance selling desirable with competition?[J].Marketing Science,2017,36(2):214-231.
[19]Zhao X,Pang Z,Stecke K E.When does a retailer's advance selling capability benefit manufacturer,retailer,or both?[J].Production and Operations Management Society,2016,25(6):1073-1087.
[20]Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect theory:An analysis of decisions under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[21]柳键,邱国斌,黄健.面对损失厌恶消费者的零售商订货定价策略及激励问题[J].控制与决策,2014,29(1):107-112.Liu J,Qiu G B,Huang J.Pricing and ordering strategies and stimulated issue of retailer facing loss-aversion customer[J].Control and Decision,2014,29(1):107-112.
[22]舒斯亮,柳键.面向消费者损失厌恶的不同竞争结构下供应链决策行为研究[J].软科学,2016,30(12):140-144.Shu S L,Liu J.Supply chain decision-making behavior under different competitive structures facing customer loss aversion[J].Soft Science,2016,30(12):140-144.
[23]Ketzenberg M E,Zuidwijk R A.Optimal pricing,ordering,and return policies for consumer goods[J].Production and Operations Management,2009,18(3):344-360.
[24]Xiao T,Shi K,Yang D.Coordination of a supply chain w:ith consumer return under demand uncertainty[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2010,124(1):171-180.
[25]李勇建,许磊,杨晓丽.产品预售、退货策略和消费者无缺陷退货行为[J].南开管理评论,2012(5):105-113.Li Y J,Xu L,Yang X L.Advance selling,return policy and failure false return for a newsvendor retailer[J].Nankai Business Review,2012(5):105-113.
[26]Li Y J,Xu L,Li D H.Examining relationships between the return policy,product quality,and pricing strategy in online direct selling[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2013,144(2):451-460.
[27]Yoo S H.Product quality and return policy in a supply chain under risk aversion of a supplier[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2014,154(3):146-155.
[28]Xu L,Li Y J,Govindan K,et al.Consumer returns policies with endogenous deadline and supply chain coordination[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,242(1):88-99.
[29]Giri B C,Roy B,Maiti T.Multi-manufacturer pricing and quality management strategies in the presence of brand differentiation and return policy[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2017,105:146-157.
[30]何莹莹,郭春香.预售模式下基于策略型消费者退货行为的运费险决策研究[J].管理学报,2018,15(8):1249-1255.He Y Y,Guo C X.Study on freight insurance decision making with consideration of strategic consumer returns in the pre-sale[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2018,15(8):1249-1255.
[31]毛照昉,刘弯弯,李辉.季节性易逝品预售与回购联合决策研究[J].管理科学学报,2016,19(2):74-84.Mao Z F,Liu W W,Li H.Joint strategy of advance-selling and buy-back for seasonal perishable products[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2016,19(2):74-84.
[32]Silver E A,Pyke D F,Peterso R.Inventory management and production planning and scheduling[M].New York:John Wiley and Sons,1998.