An observation-based perspective of winter haze days in four major polluted regions of China
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摘要
An observation-based approach is used to examine key characteristics of winter haze days in four major polluted regions in China. Major findings in this study are: first, there was no significant trend in the number of winter haze days in most provinces and districts in eastern China from 1973 to 2012, contrary to the 2.5-fold increase in the emissions of particulate matter and its precursors(PM emissions) in the same period of time. Second, meteorological and climate conditions rather than PM emissions are in control of the interannual variabilities and trends of winter haze days. These interannual variabilities(ranging from 24 to 125%) pose a substantial masking effect that must be overcome by any control of PM emissions before its impact becomes statistically detectable. Finally, we find that global warming may have contributed significantly to the trend of winter haze days in eastern China.
An observation-based approach is used to examine key characteristics of winter haze days in four major polluted regions in China. Major findings in this study are: first, there was no significant trend in the number of winter haze days in most provinces and districts in eastern China from 1973 to 2012, contrary to the 2.5-fold increase in the emissions of particulate matter and its precursors(PM emissions) in the same period of time. Second, meteorological and climate conditions rather than PM emissions are in control of the interannual variabilities and trends of winter haze days. These interannual variabilities(ranging from 24 to 125%) pose a substantial masking effect that must be overcome by any control of PM emissions before its impact becomes statistically detectable. Finally, we find that global warming may have contributed significantly to the trend of winter haze days in eastern China.
An observation-based approach is used to examine key characteristics of winter haze days in four major polluted regions in China. Major findings in this study are: first, there was no significant trend in the number of winter haze days in most provinces and districts in eastern China from 1973 to 2012, contrary to the 2.5-fold increase in the emissions of particulate matter and its precursors(PM emissions) in the same period of time. Second, meteorological and climate conditions rather than PM emissions are in control of the interannual variabilities and trends of winter haze days. These interannual variabilities(ranging from 24 to 125%) pose a substantial masking effect that must be overcome by any control of PM emissions before its impact becomes statistically detectable. Finally, we find that global warming may have contributed significantly to the trend of winter haze days in eastern China.
引文
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3.Xu P,Chen Y and Ye X.Haze,air pollution,and health in China.Lancet North Am Ed 2013;382:2067.
4.Zhang XY,Wang YQ and Niu T et al.Atmospheric aerosol compositions in China:spatial/temporal variability,chemical signature,regional haze distribution and comparisons with global aerosols.Atmos Chem Phys 2012;12:779-99.
5.Han X,Zhang M and Gao J et al.Modeling analysis of the seasonal characteristics of haze formation in Beijing.Atmos Chem Phys 2014;14:10231-48.
6.Zhang R,Li Q and Zhang R.Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013.Sci China Earth Sci 2014;57:26-35.
7.Zhao XJ,Zhao PS and Xu J et al.Analysis of a winter regional haze event and its formation mechanism in the North China Plain.Atmos Chem Phys 2013;13:5685-96.
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9.Wang Y,Yao L and Wang L et al.Mechanism for the formation of the January 2013 heavy haze pollution episode over central and eastern China.Sci China Earth Sci 2014;57:14-25.
10.Chen H and Wang H.Haze days in North China and the associated atmospheric circulations based on daily visibility data from 1960 to 2012.J Geophys Res Atmos 2015;120:5895-909.
11.Wang HJ,Chen HP and Liu JP.Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China.Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 2015;8:1-9.
12.Li Q,Zhang RH and Wang Y.Interannual variation of the wintertime fog-haze days across central and eastern China and its relation with East Asian winter monsoon.Int J Climatol 2016;36:346-54.
13.Cai WJ,Li K and Liao H et al.Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change.Nat Clim Change 2017;7:257-62.
14.Liu TT,Gong SL and He JJ et al.Attributions of meteorological and emission factors to the 2015 winter severe haze pollution episodes in China’s Jing-Jin-Ji area.Atmos Chem Phys 2017;17:2971-80.
15.Liao H,Chen WT and Seinfeld JH.Role of climate change in global predictions of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols.J Geophys Res 2006;111:D12304.
16.Jacob DJ and Winner DA.Effect of climate change on air quality.Atmos Environ2009;43:51-63.
17.Horton DE,Skinner CB and Singh D et al.Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events.Nat Clim Change 2014;4:698-703.
18.Yang Y,Liao H and Lou S.Increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades:roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions.J Geophys Res Atmos 2016;121:13,050-65.
19.Mc Vicar TR,Roderick ML and Donohue RJ et al.Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds:implications for evaporation.J Hydrol 2012;416:182-205.
20.Liu J,Wang B and Cane MA et al.Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.Nature 2013;493:656-9.
21.Zou YF,Wang YH and Zhang YZ et al.Arctic sea ice,Eurasia snow,and extreme winter haze in China.Sci Adv 2017;3:e1602751.
22.Chang LY,Xu JM and Tie XX et al.Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China.Sci Rep 2016;6:34275.
23.Zhao S,Li JP and Sun C.Decadal variability in the occurrence of wintertime haze in central eastern China tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.Sci Rep2016;6:27424.
24.Xu M,Chang C-P and Fu C et al.Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds,1969-2000:evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed.J Geophys Res 2006;111:D24111.
25.Niu F,Li Z and Li C et al.Increase of wintertime fog in China:potential impacts of weakening of the Eastern Asian monsoon circulation and increasing aerosol loading.J Geophys Res 2010;115:D00K20.
26.Ding YH and Liu YJ.Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity.Sci China Earth Sci 2014;57:36-46.
27.WMO.Aerodrome Reports and Forecasts:a Users’Handbook to the Codes.Geneva:Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization,2005.
28.Ma Z,Hu X and Sayer AM et al.Satellite-Based spatiotemporal trends in PM2.5concentrations:China,2004-2013.Environ Health Perspect 2016;124:184-92.
29.Li J,Liu R and Liu SC et al.Trends in aerosol optical depth in northern China retrieved from sunshine duration data.Geophys Res Lett 2016;43:431-9.
30.Wilks DS.Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences.Oxford:Academic Press,2011.
31.Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M and Kistler R et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc 1996;77:437-71.
32.Che H,Zhang X and Li Y et al.Haze trends over the capital cities of 31 provinces in China,1981-2005.Theor Appl Climatol 2009;97:235-42.
33.Chen Y and Xie S.Spatiotemporal pattern and regional characteristics of visibility in China during 1976-2010.Chin Sci Bull 2014;59:3054-65.
34.Dee DP,Uppala SM and Simmons AJ et al.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.QJR Meteorol Soc2011;137:553-97.
35.Lawrimore JH,Menne MJ and Gleason BE et al.An overview of the global historical climatology network monthly mean temperature data set,version 3.J Geophys Res 2011;116:D19121.
36.Rayner NA,Parker DE and Horton EB et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century.J Geophys Res 2003;108:4407.
37.Thompson DWJ and Wallace JM.The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields.Geophys Res Lett 1998;25:1297-300.
38.Mantua NJ,Hare SR and Zhang Y et al.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.Bull Amer Meteor Soc 1997;78:1069-79.
39.Wang L and Chen W.An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon.JClimate 2014;27:2361-74.
2.Kan H,London SJ and Chen G et al.Differentiating the effects of fine and coarse particles on daily mortality in Shanghai,China.Environ Int 2007;33:376-84.
3.Xu P,Chen Y and Ye X.Haze,air pollution,and health in China.Lancet North Am Ed 2013;382:2067.
4.Zhang XY,Wang YQ and Niu T et al.Atmospheric aerosol compositions in China:spatial/temporal variability,chemical signature,regional haze distribution and comparisons with global aerosols.Atmos Chem Phys 2012;12:779-99.
5.Han X,Zhang M and Gao J et al.Modeling analysis of the seasonal characteristics of haze formation in Beijing.Atmos Chem Phys 2014;14:10231-48.
6.Zhang R,Li Q and Zhang R.Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013.Sci China Earth Sci 2014;57:26-35.
7.Zhao XJ,Zhao PS and Xu J et al.Analysis of a winter regional haze event and its formation mechanism in the North China Plain.Atmos Chem Phys 2013;13:5685-96.
8.Huang R-J,Zhang Y and Bozzetti C et al.High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China.Nature 2014;514:218-22.
9.Wang Y,Yao L and Wang L et al.Mechanism for the formation of the January 2013 heavy haze pollution episode over central and eastern China.Sci China Earth Sci 2014;57:14-25.
10.Chen H and Wang H.Haze days in North China and the associated atmospheric circulations based on daily visibility data from 1960 to 2012.J Geophys Res Atmos 2015;120:5895-909.
11.Wang HJ,Chen HP and Liu JP.Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China.Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett 2015;8:1-9.
12.Li Q,Zhang RH and Wang Y.Interannual variation of the wintertime fog-haze days across central and eastern China and its relation with East Asian winter monsoon.Int J Climatol 2016;36:346-54.
13.Cai WJ,Li K and Liao H et al.Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change.Nat Clim Change 2017;7:257-62.
14.Liu TT,Gong SL and He JJ et al.Attributions of meteorological and emission factors to the 2015 winter severe haze pollution episodes in China’s Jing-Jin-Ji area.Atmos Chem Phys 2017;17:2971-80.
15.Liao H,Chen WT and Seinfeld JH.Role of climate change in global predictions of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols.J Geophys Res 2006;111:D12304.
16.Jacob DJ and Winner DA.Effect of climate change on air quality.Atmos Environ2009;43:51-63.
17.Horton DE,Skinner CB and Singh D et al.Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events.Nat Clim Change 2014;4:698-703.
18.Yang Y,Liao H and Lou S.Increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades:roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions.J Geophys Res Atmos 2016;121:13,050-65.
19.Mc Vicar TR,Roderick ML and Donohue RJ et al.Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds:implications for evaporation.J Hydrol 2012;416:182-205.
20.Liu J,Wang B and Cane MA et al.Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.Nature 2013;493:656-9.
21.Zou YF,Wang YH and Zhang YZ et al.Arctic sea ice,Eurasia snow,and extreme winter haze in China.Sci Adv 2017;3:e1602751.
22.Chang LY,Xu JM and Tie XX et al.Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China.Sci Rep 2016;6:34275.
23.Zhao S,Li JP and Sun C.Decadal variability in the occurrence of wintertime haze in central eastern China tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.Sci Rep2016;6:27424.
24.Xu M,Chang C-P and Fu C et al.Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds,1969-2000:evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed.J Geophys Res 2006;111:D24111.
25.Niu F,Li Z and Li C et al.Increase of wintertime fog in China:potential impacts of weakening of the Eastern Asian monsoon circulation and increasing aerosol loading.J Geophys Res 2010;115:D00K20.
26.Ding YH and Liu YJ.Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity.Sci China Earth Sci 2014;57:36-46.
27.WMO.Aerodrome Reports and Forecasts:a Users’Handbook to the Codes.Geneva:Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization,2005.
28.Ma Z,Hu X and Sayer AM et al.Satellite-Based spatiotemporal trends in PM2.5concentrations:China,2004-2013.Environ Health Perspect 2016;124:184-92.
29.Li J,Liu R and Liu SC et al.Trends in aerosol optical depth in northern China retrieved from sunshine duration data.Geophys Res Lett 2016;43:431-9.
30.Wilks DS.Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences.Oxford:Academic Press,2011.
31.Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M and Kistler R et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc 1996;77:437-71.
32.Che H,Zhang X and Li Y et al.Haze trends over the capital cities of 31 provinces in China,1981-2005.Theor Appl Climatol 2009;97:235-42.
33.Chen Y and Xie S.Spatiotemporal pattern and regional characteristics of visibility in China during 1976-2010.Chin Sci Bull 2014;59:3054-65.
34.Dee DP,Uppala SM and Simmons AJ et al.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.QJR Meteorol Soc2011;137:553-97.
35.Lawrimore JH,Menne MJ and Gleason BE et al.An overview of the global historical climatology network monthly mean temperature data set,version 3.J Geophys Res 2011;116:D19121.
36.Rayner NA,Parker DE and Horton EB et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century.J Geophys Res 2003;108:4407.
37.Thompson DWJ and Wallace JM.The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields.Geophys Res Lett 1998;25:1297-300.
38.Mantua NJ,Hare SR and Zhang Y et al.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.Bull Amer Meteor Soc 1997;78:1069-79.
39.Wang L and Chen W.An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon.JClimate 2014;27:2361-74.