服务贸易非物化型知识溢出的空间测度——基于修正的Coe-Helpman模型
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摘要
有别于有形货物贸易溢出的物化型知识,本文基于无形服务贸易溢出的非物化型知识所具有的空间属性,将货物贸易知识溢出研究的标准线性范式Coe-Helpman模型在空间维度扩展成为非线性Coe-Helpman-Durbin模型,除了保留对贸易进口地首次溢出效应的检验,还增加了对贸易进口地以外毗邻地区二次溢出效应的检验。基于中国31省1992-2011年面板数据的检验结果表明服务贸易非物化型知识在服务进口地及其毗邻地区表现出截然相反的溢出效应,首次溢出没有提升服务进口地的全要素生产率及技术进步率、技术效率,二次溢出却显著提升了进口地以外毗邻地区的全要素生产率及技术进步率、技术效率。
The intangible know ledge imported from service trade is different from the physical know ledge imported from goods trade in that the intangible know ledge has spatial dependency property. The paper develops the linear Coe- Helpman model,w hich commonly used in testing physical know ledge spillover, into nonlinear spatial Durbin model w hich can be used to testing intangible know ledge spillover both into local area and its neighbor. By using a Chinese panel data including 31 provinces from 1992 to 2011 year,the result show s that although imported intangible know ledge hasn't promoted local total factor productivity, technology efficiency and technology progress,it has promoted neighbors' total factor productivity,technology efficiency and technology progress.
The intangible know ledge imported from service trade is different from the physical know ledge imported from goods trade in that the intangible know ledge has spatial dependency property. The paper develops the linear Coe- Helpman model,w hich commonly used in testing physical know ledge spillover, into nonlinear spatial Durbin model w hich can be used to testing intangible know ledge spillover both into local area and its neighbor. By using a Chinese panel data including 31 provinces from 1992 to 2011 year,the result show s that although imported intangible know ledge hasn't promoted local total factor productivity, technology efficiency and technology progress,it has promoted neighbors' total factor productivity,technology efficiency and technology progress.
引文
Amiti Mary,Konings Jozef,2007,“Trade Liberalization,Intermediate Inputs,and Productivity:Evidence fromIndonesia,”The American Economic Review,97(5),pp.1611-1638.
Arnold Jens,Mattoo Aaditya,Narciso Gaia,2006,“Service Inputs and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa:Evidence from Firm-Level Data,”The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.4048.
Arnold Jens,Javorcik Beata S.,Mattoo Aaditya,2006,“The Productivity Effects of Services Liberalization Evidencefrom the Czech Republic,”World Bank Working Paper.
Bosworth B.,Collins S.M.,Virmani A,2007,“Sources of Grow th in the Indian Economy,”NBER Working Paper,No.12901.
Dosi G,1988,“Sources.Procedures and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation,”Journal of Economic Literature,1988,26(3),pp.1120-1171.
Elhorst,J.P.,2012,“Matlab Softw are for Spatial Panels,”International Regional Science Review,8(1),pp.56-72.
Eschenbach Felix,Schuknecht Ludger,2004,“Budgetary Risks from Real Estate and Stock M arkets,”EconomicPolicy,19(39),pp.313-346.
Falvey Rod,NeilFoster and David Greenaw ay,2002,“Noth-South Trade,Know ledge Spillovers and Grow th,”Journal of Economic Integration,17(4),pp.650-670.
Fare Rolf,Shawna Grosskopf,Mary Norris,and Zhongyang Zhang,1994,“Productivity Grow th,Technical Progress,and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries,”American Economic Review,84(1),pp.66-83.
Francois Joseph F,1990,“Trade in Producer Services and Returns due to Specialization under M onopolisticCompetition,”The Canadian Journal of Economics,23(1),pp.109-124.
Francois Joseph and Woerz Julia,2008,“Producer Services,M anufacturing Linkages,and Trade,”Journal ofIndustry,Competition and Trade,8(3-4),pp.199-229.
Griliches,Zvi,1979,“Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Grow th,”TheBell Journal of Economics,10(1),pp.92-116.
Grossman,Gene M.and Helpman,Elhnan,1991,“Trade,Know ledge Spillovers and Grow th,”European EconomicReview,35(2-3),pp.517-526.
Hoekman Bernard,2006,“Trade in Services,Trade Agreements and Economic Development:A Survey of theLiterature,”CEPR Discussion Paper,No.5760.
Kim,Jong and June-Dong Kim,2000,“Impact of Services Liberalization on Productivity:the Case of Korea,”TheKorea Institute for International Economic Policy.
LeSage,James and Pace,R.Kelley.,2009,Introduction to spatial econometrics,Published by New York CRC Press.
Lichtenberg F and Pottelsberghe de la Potterie,1998,“International R&D Spillovers:a Comment,”EuropeanEconomic Review,42(8),pp.1483-1491.
Markusen James R,1989,“Trade in Producer Services and in Other Specialized Intermediate Inputs,”The AmericanEconomic Review,79(1),pp.85-95.
Mattoo Aaditya,Rathindran Randeep,Subramanian Arvind,2006,“M easuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its onEconomic Grow th:An Illustration,”Journal of Economic Integration,21(1),pp.64-98.
Nordas Hildegunn Kyvik,2010,“Trade in Goods and Services:Tw o Sides of the Same Coin,”Economic Modelling,27(2),pp.496-506.
Parent,O.and J.P.Le Sage,2008,“Using the Variance Structure of the Conditional Autoregressive Specification toM odel Know ledge Spillovers,”.Journal of Applied Econometrics,23(2),pp.235-256.
Ray T,2009,“Rethinking Polanyi’s Concept of the Tacit Know ledge from Personal Know ing to ImaginedInstitutions,”Minerva,47(1),pp.75-92.
Rivera-Batiz and Rivera-Batiz,1991,“Economic Integration and Endogenous Grow th,”The Quarterly ofEconomics,5(2),pp.531-555.
Verspagen B.I,1991,“A New Empirical Approach to Catching up or Falling Behind,”Structural Change andEconomic Dynamics,2(2),pp.359-380.
Walz U,1996,“Transport Cost,Intermediate Good,and Localized Grow th,”Regional Science and Urban Economics,26(6),pp.671-695.
陈继勇和盛杨怿,2008,《外商直接投资的知识溢出与中国区域经济增长》,《经济研究》第12期39-49页。
程大中,2008,《中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响--——基于投入-产出法的国际比较研究》,《经济研究》第1期76-88页。
樊秀峰和韩亚峰,2012,《生产性服务贸易对制造业生产效率影响的实证研究》,《国际经贸探索》第5期4-14页。
方慧,2009,《服务贸易技术溢出的实证研究》,《世界经济研究》第3期49-54页。
方颖和赵扬,2011,《寻找制度的工具变量:估计产权保护对中国经济增长的贡献》,《经济研究》第5期138-148页。
江静和何薇,2014,《服务产业国际竞争力:基于政府规模和法治水平视角的跨国分析》,《南方经济》第9期14-26页。
江小涓和李辉,2004,《服务业与中国经济:相关性、结构转换和加快增长的潜力》,《经济研究》第1期4-15页。
林毅夫和任若恩,2007,《东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨》,《经济研究》第8期4-13页。
单豪杰,2008,《中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第10期17-31页。
唐保庆、陈志和和杨继军,2011,《服务贸易进口是否带来国外R&D溢出效应》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第5期94-110页。
王昱、丁四保和王荣成,2007,《空间剥夺与县域经济发展问题——以吉林省中部地区为例》,《人文地理》第5期60-65页。
魏锴、杨礼胜和张昭,2013,《对我国农业技术引进问题的政策思考——兼论农业技术进步的路径选择》,《农业经济问题》第4期35-41页。
岳书敬和刘朝明,2006,《人力资本与区域全要素生产率分析》,《经济研究》第4期90-97页。
赵伟和李芬,2007,《异质性劳动力流动与区域收入差距:新经济地理学模型的扩展分析》,《中国人口科学》第1期27-35页。
赵伟和汪全立,2006,《人力资本与技术溢出:基于进口传导机制的实证研究》,《中国软科学》第4期66-74页。
赵勇和白永秀,2009,《知识溢出:一个文献综述》,《经济研究》第1期144-156页。
郑云,2006,《中国农业技术的国际扩散模式及竞争策略》,《改革》第3期78-84页。
郑展、韩伯棠和张向东,2009,《区域知识溢出与吸收能力研究》,《科学学与科学技术管理》第4期97-101页。
1“其他商业服务业”系指包装服务,会议服务,翻译服务,与农、林、牧渔相关的附属服务,技术检测及分析服务,近海石油服务、地质、地球物理和其他科学勘探服务,陆上石油服务等。
1 基于SDM的上述定义方式也适用于空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM)。但对SEM,偏导矩阵退化为一对角矩阵,对角线上每一元素均为ξ2 ,这表明不存在自变量对因变量的跨区域影响。基于偏导矩阵定义自变量对因变量的影响系数,规范了空间模型的参数释义,如果基于线性模型参数释义方式来理解空间模型,则使用SLM时就无法得到自变量对因变量的跨区域影响,因为SLM模型设定形式中缺少自变量的空间滞后项。这也进一步说明基于偏导矩阵定义空间模型参数的合理性。
2 rt(·)代表对偏导矩阵对角元素的加总求和。
1 Le Sage and Pace(2009)和Elhorst(2012)分别基于截面与面板数据的经验结果证实基于偏导矩阵定义的区域内和区域间溢出效应估计值与SDM参数估计值的数值符号是完全相反的。
2 按前文对消费性服务与生产性服务的分类界定,此处溢出指标量化时也应作出相应分类。但由于受数据获取的制约,我们无法取得消费性服务与生产性服务的细分数据。由于商务部发布的服务业细分数据(表2 )样本时期跨度有限,因此也未能纳入实证样本。但表2 细分的服务贸易数据却显示生产性服务进口总值占据了较高比例,因此,有理由认为在指标(14 )式虽没有区分消费性服务和生产性服务,但所用到的服务贸易总量数据应该能够体现生产性服务所带来的知识溢出优势。
Arnold Jens,Mattoo Aaditya,Narciso Gaia,2006,“Service Inputs and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa:Evidence from Firm-Level Data,”The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.4048.
Arnold Jens,Javorcik Beata S.,Mattoo Aaditya,2006,“The Productivity Effects of Services Liberalization Evidencefrom the Czech Republic,”World Bank Working Paper.
Bosworth B.,Collins S.M.,Virmani A,2007,“Sources of Grow th in the Indian Economy,”NBER Working Paper,No.12901.
Dosi G,1988,“Sources.Procedures and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation,”Journal of Economic Literature,1988,26(3),pp.1120-1171.
Elhorst,J.P.,2012,“Matlab Softw are for Spatial Panels,”International Regional Science Review,8(1),pp.56-72.
Eschenbach Felix,Schuknecht Ludger,2004,“Budgetary Risks from Real Estate and Stock M arkets,”EconomicPolicy,19(39),pp.313-346.
Falvey Rod,NeilFoster and David Greenaw ay,2002,“Noth-South Trade,Know ledge Spillovers and Grow th,”Journal of Economic Integration,17(4),pp.650-670.
Fare Rolf,Shawna Grosskopf,Mary Norris,and Zhongyang Zhang,1994,“Productivity Grow th,Technical Progress,and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries,”American Economic Review,84(1),pp.66-83.
Francois Joseph F,1990,“Trade in Producer Services and Returns due to Specialization under M onopolisticCompetition,”The Canadian Journal of Economics,23(1),pp.109-124.
Francois Joseph and Woerz Julia,2008,“Producer Services,M anufacturing Linkages,and Trade,”Journal ofIndustry,Competition and Trade,8(3-4),pp.199-229.
Griliches,Zvi,1979,“Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Grow th,”TheBell Journal of Economics,10(1),pp.92-116.
Grossman,Gene M.and Helpman,Elhnan,1991,“Trade,Know ledge Spillovers and Grow th,”European EconomicReview,35(2-3),pp.517-526.
Hoekman Bernard,2006,“Trade in Services,Trade Agreements and Economic Development:A Survey of theLiterature,”CEPR Discussion Paper,No.5760.
Kim,Jong and June-Dong Kim,2000,“Impact of Services Liberalization on Productivity:the Case of Korea,”TheKorea Institute for International Economic Policy.
LeSage,James and Pace,R.Kelley.,2009,Introduction to spatial econometrics,Published by New York CRC Press.
Lichtenberg F and Pottelsberghe de la Potterie,1998,“International R&D Spillovers:a Comment,”EuropeanEconomic Review,42(8),pp.1483-1491.
Markusen James R,1989,“Trade in Producer Services and in Other Specialized Intermediate Inputs,”The AmericanEconomic Review,79(1),pp.85-95.
Mattoo Aaditya,Rathindran Randeep,Subramanian Arvind,2006,“M easuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its onEconomic Grow th:An Illustration,”Journal of Economic Integration,21(1),pp.64-98.
Nordas Hildegunn Kyvik,2010,“Trade in Goods and Services:Tw o Sides of the Same Coin,”Economic Modelling,27(2),pp.496-506.
Parent,O.and J.P.Le Sage,2008,“Using the Variance Structure of the Conditional Autoregressive Specification toM odel Know ledge Spillovers,”.Journal of Applied Econometrics,23(2),pp.235-256.
Ray T,2009,“Rethinking Polanyi’s Concept of the Tacit Know ledge from Personal Know ing to ImaginedInstitutions,”Minerva,47(1),pp.75-92.
Rivera-Batiz and Rivera-Batiz,1991,“Economic Integration and Endogenous Grow th,”The Quarterly ofEconomics,5(2),pp.531-555.
Verspagen B.I,1991,“A New Empirical Approach to Catching up or Falling Behind,”Structural Change andEconomic Dynamics,2(2),pp.359-380.
Walz U,1996,“Transport Cost,Intermediate Good,and Localized Grow th,”Regional Science and Urban Economics,26(6),pp.671-695.
陈继勇和盛杨怿,2008,《外商直接投资的知识溢出与中国区域经济增长》,《经济研究》第12期39-49页。
程大中,2008,《中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响--——基于投入-产出法的国际比较研究》,《经济研究》第1期76-88页。
樊秀峰和韩亚峰,2012,《生产性服务贸易对制造业生产效率影响的实证研究》,《国际经贸探索》第5期4-14页。
方慧,2009,《服务贸易技术溢出的实证研究》,《世界经济研究》第3期49-54页。
方颖和赵扬,2011,《寻找制度的工具变量:估计产权保护对中国经济增长的贡献》,《经济研究》第5期138-148页。
江静和何薇,2014,《服务产业国际竞争力:基于政府规模和法治水平视角的跨国分析》,《南方经济》第9期14-26页。
江小涓和李辉,2004,《服务业与中国经济:相关性、结构转换和加快增长的潜力》,《经济研究》第1期4-15页。
林毅夫和任若恩,2007,《东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨》,《经济研究》第8期4-13页。
单豪杰,2008,《中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第10期17-31页。
唐保庆、陈志和和杨继军,2011,《服务贸易进口是否带来国外R&D溢出效应》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第5期94-110页。
王昱、丁四保和王荣成,2007,《空间剥夺与县域经济发展问题——以吉林省中部地区为例》,《人文地理》第5期60-65页。
魏锴、杨礼胜和张昭,2013,《对我国农业技术引进问题的政策思考——兼论农业技术进步的路径选择》,《农业经济问题》第4期35-41页。
岳书敬和刘朝明,2006,《人力资本与区域全要素生产率分析》,《经济研究》第4期90-97页。
赵伟和李芬,2007,《异质性劳动力流动与区域收入差距:新经济地理学模型的扩展分析》,《中国人口科学》第1期27-35页。
赵伟和汪全立,2006,《人力资本与技术溢出:基于进口传导机制的实证研究》,《中国软科学》第4期66-74页。
赵勇和白永秀,2009,《知识溢出:一个文献综述》,《经济研究》第1期144-156页。
郑云,2006,《中国农业技术的国际扩散模式及竞争策略》,《改革》第3期78-84页。
郑展、韩伯棠和张向东,2009,《区域知识溢出与吸收能力研究》,《科学学与科学技术管理》第4期97-101页。
1“其他商业服务业”系指包装服务,会议服务,翻译服务,与农、林、牧渔相关的附属服务,技术检测及分析服务,近海石油服务、地质、地球物理和其他科学勘探服务,陆上石油服务等。
1 基于SDM的上述定义方式也适用于空间滞后模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM)。但对SEM,偏导矩阵退化为一对角矩阵,对角线上每一元素均为ξ2 ,这表明不存在自变量对因变量的跨区域影响。基于偏导矩阵定义自变量对因变量的影响系数,规范了空间模型的参数释义,如果基于线性模型参数释义方式来理解空间模型,则使用SLM时就无法得到自变量对因变量的跨区域影响,因为SLM模型设定形式中缺少自变量的空间滞后项。这也进一步说明基于偏导矩阵定义空间模型参数的合理性。
2 rt(·)代表对偏导矩阵对角元素的加总求和。
1 Le Sage and Pace(2009)和Elhorst(2012)分别基于截面与面板数据的经验结果证实基于偏导矩阵定义的区域内和区域间溢出效应估计值与SDM参数估计值的数值符号是完全相反的。
2 按前文对消费性服务与生产性服务的分类界定,此处溢出指标量化时也应作出相应分类。但由于受数据获取的制约,我们无法取得消费性服务与生产性服务的细分数据。由于商务部发布的服务业细分数据(表2 )样本时期跨度有限,因此也未能纳入实证样本。但表2 细分的服务贸易数据却显示生产性服务进口总值占据了较高比例,因此,有理由认为在指标(14 )式虽没有区分消费性服务和生产性服务,但所用到的服务贸易总量数据应该能够体现生产性服务所带来的知识溢出优势。