气候变化对宝鸡市猕猴桃产量的影响
|
摘要
通过对陕西省宝鸡市2005—2016年气象数据和猕猴桃产量数据的搜集与整理,利用Excel、ArcGIS等软件分析了猕猴桃生长膨大期(5—7月)和成熟期(8—10月)两个阶段气温、降水、日照时间三大气象因子的变化与猕猴桃产量的相关性。结果表明,宝鸡市近12年猕猴桃的单产整体呈波动上升趋势;果业的生产发展在较大程度上受气候变化制约,猕猴桃单产与气温变化、日照时间呈正相关趋势,与降水量变化呈负相关趋势;气候变化对果业的发展有一定影响,但农业技术的不断提升、政府相关政策的扶持、"互联网+"的大力推广以及人为因素等在一定程度上弥补了气候变化对果业发展带来的一些不利影响。基于上述结果,提出了发展建议,以期为宝鸡市猕猴桃产业的发展提供参考。
By collecting and sorting the weather data and kiwifruit production data from 2005 to 2016 in Baoji city, Shaanxi province, using software such as Excel and ArcGIS, the correlations between the three major meteorological factors including temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours during fruit expanding period from May to July and the ripening period of kiwifruit from August to October, and the kiwifruit yield, were analyzed. The results showed that the yield of kiwifruit in Baoji city fluctuated and rose as a whole in the past 12 years. The production development of the fruit industry was greatly constrained by climate change. The yield of kiwifruit was positively correlated with the change of temperature and sunshine hours, and negatively correlated with the change of precipitation. Climate change had a certain impact on the development of the fruit industry, but with the continuous improvement of agricultural technology, the support of relevant government policies, the vigorous promotion of "Internet Plus" and human factors, to a certain extent, the negative impacts of climate change on the fruit industry was weakened. Based on the above results, suggestions for development were proposed in order to provide a reasonable reference for the development of the kiwifruit industry in Baoji.
By collecting and sorting the weather data and kiwifruit production data from 2005 to 2016 in Baoji city, Shaanxi province, using software such as Excel and ArcGIS, the correlations between the three major meteorological factors including temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours during fruit expanding period from May to July and the ripening period of kiwifruit from August to October, and the kiwifruit yield, were analyzed. The results showed that the yield of kiwifruit in Baoji city fluctuated and rose as a whole in the past 12 years. The production development of the fruit industry was greatly constrained by climate change. The yield of kiwifruit was positively correlated with the change of temperature and sunshine hours, and negatively correlated with the change of precipitation. Climate change had a certain impact on the development of the fruit industry, but with the continuous improvement of agricultural technology, the support of relevant government policies, the vigorous promotion of "Internet Plus" and human factors, to a certain extent, the negative impacts of climate change on the fruit industry was weakened. Based on the above results, suggestions for development were proposed in order to provide a reasonable reference for the development of the kiwifruit industry in Baoji.
引文
[1]贺亚琴.气候变化对中国油菜生产的影响研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2016.
[2]周义,覃志豪,包刚.气候变化对农业的影响及应对[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(32):299-303.
[3]覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟,等.气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(5):1-7.
[4]秦鹏程,姚凤梅,曹秀霞,等.利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业影响的发展过程[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(2):240-245.
[5]尚艳.甘肃省不同产区冬小麦生育期及生产潜力对气候变化的响应[D].兰州:甘肃农业大学,2017.
[6]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.过去2000年来陕西地区冰雹灾害及其对农业的影响研究[J].高原气象,2017,36(2):538-548.
[7]庞德谦,傅志军.气候变化与宝鸡市粮食产量关系初探[J].宝鸡文理学院学报(自然科学版),1996,16(1):60-64.
[8]万红莲.宝鸡地区近1400a洪涝灾害及其影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(4):79-82.
[9]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):27-38.
[10]杨晓华,曹天堂,杨小利.影响“平凉金果”产量的生态气象因子及其变化趋势[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(27):13033-13036.
[11]王晓冬.气候变化对我国农业经济发展的影响与对策研究[J].农业经济,2017(2):84-85.
[12]申晓晴.周口市近50年气候变化特征及对农业生产的影响[J].农业灾害研究,2017,7(8):26-28.
[13]张开骅.特色林果业发展现状和发展思路分析——以甘肃省古浪县为例[J].江西农业,2017(3):91.
[14]丁敏.环境变化和灾害对陕西果业生产的影响及对策研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2003.
[15]李美荣.陕西省果区气候变化及苹果花期冻害风险分析与区划[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.
[16]杨过.关于宝鸡市果业产业发展情况的调查与思考[J].宝鸡社会科学,2015,35(1):38-41.
[17]姚安劳,张继明,冯斌.宝鸡市苹果产业现状问题及对策[J].现代种业,2004,9(1):18-19.
[18]张辉.宝鸡市近十年果业种植面积、产量、产值变化分析[J].陕西农业科学,2017,63(3):79-85.
[19]王剑,张积显.浅谈陕西关中灌区果业现状和发展建议[J].果树实用技术与信息,2015,16(2):38-39.
[20]巨汶龙.陕西省猕猴桃产业发展对策研究[D].陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2017.
[21]李红娟,张继明,李广文.宝鸡市发展现代果业的对策[J].陕西农业科学,2010,56(2):139-141.
[22]毛凤霞,冯青云.电子商务促进陕西果业转型升级路径研究[J].新西部,2017,4(8):75-79.
[2]周义,覃志豪,包刚.气候变化对农业的影响及应对[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(32):299-303.
[3]覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟,等.气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(5):1-7.
[4]秦鹏程,姚凤梅,曹秀霞,等.利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业影响的发展过程[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(2):240-245.
[5]尚艳.甘肃省不同产区冬小麦生育期及生产潜力对气候变化的响应[D].兰州:甘肃农业大学,2017.
[6]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.过去2000年来陕西地区冰雹灾害及其对农业的影响研究[J].高原气象,2017,36(2):538-548.
[7]庞德谦,傅志军.气候变化与宝鸡市粮食产量关系初探[J].宝鸡文理学院学报(自然科学版),1996,16(1):60-64.
[8]万红莲.宝鸡地区近1400a洪涝灾害及其影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(4):79-82.
[9]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):27-38.
[10]杨晓华,曹天堂,杨小利.影响“平凉金果”产量的生态气象因子及其变化趋势[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(27):13033-13036.
[11]王晓冬.气候变化对我国农业经济发展的影响与对策研究[J].农业经济,2017(2):84-85.
[12]申晓晴.周口市近50年气候变化特征及对农业生产的影响[J].农业灾害研究,2017,7(8):26-28.
[13]张开骅.特色林果业发展现状和发展思路分析——以甘肃省古浪县为例[J].江西农业,2017(3):91.
[14]丁敏.环境变化和灾害对陕西果业生产的影响及对策研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2003.
[15]李美荣.陕西省果区气候变化及苹果花期冻害风险分析与区划[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.
[16]杨过.关于宝鸡市果业产业发展情况的调查与思考[J].宝鸡社会科学,2015,35(1):38-41.
[17]姚安劳,张继明,冯斌.宝鸡市苹果产业现状问题及对策[J].现代种业,2004,9(1):18-19.
[18]张辉.宝鸡市近十年果业种植面积、产量、产值变化分析[J].陕西农业科学,2017,63(3):79-85.
[19]王剑,张积显.浅谈陕西关中灌区果业现状和发展建议[J].果树实用技术与信息,2015,16(2):38-39.
[20]巨汶龙.陕西省猕猴桃产业发展对策研究[D].陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2017.
[21]李红娟,张继明,李广文.宝鸡市发展现代果业的对策[J].陕西农业科学,2010,56(2):139-141.
[22]毛凤霞,冯青云.电子商务促进陕西果业转型升级路径研究[J].新西部,2017,4(8):75-79.