西北太平洋及印度洋三维温盐流数值预报业务系统构建及预报检验
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摘要
基于HYCOM海洋模式和集合最优插值(En OI)同化方法,开发了一套西北太平洋及印度洋三维温盐流数值预报业务系统(IAPos),2016年5月开始进行业务试验,并对业务试验的结果与原有的三维温盐流数值预报系统(wyl V2)进行对比检验,从检验结果看:在中国近海,IAPos系统的预报效果,较wyl V2有非常显著的改善,但对不同预报变量、不同垂直层、不同区域也有一些差异。整体来说,IAPos系统的预报性能较好。
Based on the HYCOM ocean model and the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation(En OI) assimilation method, a three-dimensional ocean numerical forecast operational system in the Northwest Pacific and Indian sea(IAPos) is established, and began to run operational test from May in 2016. The modeled results are contrasted to the former three-dimensional ocean model system(wylV2). The results show that the forecasting ability of IAPos system is better than that of wyl V2 system in the China seas. There are some difference between different forecast variables and different vertical layers. In general, the forecast capability of the IAPos is better than that of the wylV2.
Based on the HYCOM ocean model and the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation(En OI) assimilation method, a three-dimensional ocean numerical forecast operational system in the Northwest Pacific and Indian sea(IAPos) is established, and began to run operational test from May in 2016. The modeled results are contrasted to the former three-dimensional ocean model system(wylV2). The results show that the forecasting ability of IAPos system is better than that of wyl V2 system in the China seas. There are some difference between different forecast variables and different vertical layers. In general, the forecast capability of the IAPos is better than that of the wylV2.
引文
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[3]Burnett,W.,S.Harper,R.Preller,G.Jacobs,and K.La Croix.2014.Overview of operational ocean forecasting in the US Navy:Past,present,and future.Oceanography 27(3):24-31http://www.tos.org/oceanography,2014.
[4]Mc Phaden M J,Busalacchi A J,Cheney R,et al.The tropical oceanglobal atmosphere observing system:a decade of progress[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1998,103(C7):14169-14240.
[5]Reynolds R W,Smith T M,Liu C Y,et al.Daily high-reso-lutionblended analyses for sea surface temperature[J].Journal of Climate,2007,20(22):5473-5496.
[6]Bleck R,Halliwell G,Wallcraft A,et al.Hybrid coordinate ocean model user’s manual[M].Miami:University of Miami Press,2002.
[7]赵其庚,宋永加,彭淑英.高分辨率印度洋—太平洋海洋环流模式及模拟结果初步分析[M]//国家气候中心.气候变化与预测研究.北京:气象出版社,2000.
[8]张学洪,俞永强,周天军,等.大洋环流和海气相互作用的数值模拟讲义[M].北京:气象出版社,2013.
[9]虎雅琼,刘海文,李阳春,等.全球海洋模式对不同强迫场的响应[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):180-196.
[10]Evensen G.The Ensemble Kalman Filter:theoretical formulation and practical implementation[J].Ocean Dynamics,2003,53(4):343-367.
[11]Evensen G.Sampling strategies and square root analysis schemes for the En KF[J].Ocean Dynamics,2004,54(6):539-560.
[12]Xie J P,Zhu J.Ensemble optimal interpolation schemes for assimilating Argo profiles into a hybrid coordinate ocean model[J].Ocean Modelling,2010,33(3-4):283-298.
[13]万莉颖.集合同化方法在太平洋海洋高度计资料同化中的应用研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院(大气物理研究所),2006.
[14]吕国坤.集合最优插值同化方法在HYCOM及ROMS中的应用及改进[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2013.
[15]Yan C X,Zhu J,Zhou G Q.Impacts of XBT,TAO,altimetry and ARGO observations on the tropical Pacific ocean data assimilation[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(3):383-398.
[16]Yan C X,Zhu J,Xie J P.An ocean data assimilation system in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific Ocean[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2015,32(11):1460-1472.