基于统计学方法的HYCOM海洋预报结果评价
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摘要
利用2015年冬季和2016年夏季东中国海现场温度、盐度观测资料,评价了一个海洋资料同化及预报系统HYCOM初始场的精度和预报技巧.结果表明这一预报系统初始场的精度及预报技巧在冬、夏季有明显的差异.在冬季,模式温度和观测温度之间无明显偏差.在夏季,盐度初始场的均方根误差高达3.41psu,温度初始场的均方根误差高达7.22℃.就预报技巧而言,预报系统在冬季对温度有一定的预报技巧,与冬季相比,预报系统对温度及盐度的预报技巧在夏季明显降低.本研究的结果有利于人们更好地使用海洋预报,为研发下一代中国近海海洋预报系统提供借鉴.
In this study,we evaluated the accuracy of initial fields and the prediction skill of an ocean data assimilation and forecasting system HYCOM using in situ temperature and salinity observations during the winter of 2015 and the summer of 2016.The results show that the accuracy of the initial fields and the prediction skill of the forecasting system are obviously different in winter and summer.In winter,there is no obvious bias between the model temperature and the observation.In summer,the root mean square error of the salinity field of the forecasting system is as high as 3.41 psu.The root mean square error of temperature is as high as 7.22℃.As for prediction skill,this forecasting system has some prediction skills for temperature in winter.The prediction skill of temperature and salinity of this forecasting system is reduced in summer.The results of our study would help to better understand the accuracy of the ocean forecasting system over the East China Sea and could contribute to the design and implementation of the next generation Chinese ocean forecasting system.
In this study,we evaluated the accuracy of initial fields and the prediction skill of an ocean data assimilation and forecasting system HYCOM using in situ temperature and salinity observations during the winter of 2015 and the summer of 2016.The results show that the accuracy of the initial fields and the prediction skill of the forecasting system are obviously different in winter and summer.In winter,there is no obvious bias between the model temperature and the observation.In summer,the root mean square error of the salinity field of the forecasting system is as high as 3.41 psu.The root mean square error of temperature is as high as 7.22℃.As for prediction skill,this forecasting system has some prediction skills for temperature in winter.The prediction skill of temperature and salinity of this forecasting system is reduced in summer.The results of our study would help to better understand the accuracy of the ocean forecasting system over the East China Sea and could contribute to the design and implementation of the next generation Chinese ocean forecasting system.
引文
[1]马毅.我国海洋观测预报系统概述[J].海洋预报,2008,25(1):31-40.
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[4]CHASSIGNET E P,SMITH L T,HALLIWELL G R,et al.North Atlantic simulation with the hybrid coordinate ocean model(HYCOM):impact of the vertical coordinate choice,reference pressure,and the thermobaricity[J].Phys Oceanogr,2003,33(12):2504-2526.
[5]卢著敏,尚晓东,陈桂英.混合坐标模式HYCOM模拟COADS强迫下的南海平均环流[J].热带海洋学报,2008(4):23-31.
[6]白志鹏,高松,王海棠.HYCOM模式对东海黑潮的气候态模拟[J].海洋通报,2010(2):121-129.
[7]高松,吕咸青.HYCOM模式对赤道及北太平洋海表温度的模拟[J].海洋科学进展,2007(3):257-267.
[8]吴力川.南海区域海洋模式适应性比较分析及改进[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2013.
[9]BLECK R.An oceanic general circulation model framed in hybrid isopycnic-Cartesian coordinates[J].Ocean Modeling,2002,4:55-58.
[10]连展,魏泽勋,王永刚,等.中国近海环流数值模拟研究综述[J].海洋科学进展,2009(2):250-265.
[11]郑沛楠.常用海洋数值模式简介[J].海洋预报,2008,25(4):108-120.
[12]陈晓斌,周林,陈璇,等.东中国海HYCOM模式垂向坐标对比研究[J].海洋科学,2015(7):60-68.
[2]方长芳,张翔,尹建平.21世纪初海洋预报系统发展现状和趋势[J].海洋预报,2013,30(4):93-102.
[3]METZGER E J,SMEDSTAD O M,THOPPIL P G,et al.US navy opertional global ocean and Arctic ice prediction systems[J].Oceanography,2014,27(3):32-43.
[4]CHASSIGNET E P,SMITH L T,HALLIWELL G R,et al.North Atlantic simulation with the hybrid coordinate ocean model(HYCOM):impact of the vertical coordinate choice,reference pressure,and the thermobaricity[J].Phys Oceanogr,2003,33(12):2504-2526.
[5]卢著敏,尚晓东,陈桂英.混合坐标模式HYCOM模拟COADS强迫下的南海平均环流[J].热带海洋学报,2008(4):23-31.
[6]白志鹏,高松,王海棠.HYCOM模式对东海黑潮的气候态模拟[J].海洋通报,2010(2):121-129.
[7]高松,吕咸青.HYCOM模式对赤道及北太平洋海表温度的模拟[J].海洋科学进展,2007(3):257-267.
[8]吴力川.南海区域海洋模式适应性比较分析及改进[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2013.
[9]BLECK R.An oceanic general circulation model framed in hybrid isopycnic-Cartesian coordinates[J].Ocean Modeling,2002,4:55-58.
[10]连展,魏泽勋,王永刚,等.中国近海环流数值模拟研究综述[J].海洋科学进展,2009(2):250-265.
[11]郑沛楠.常用海洋数值模式简介[J].海洋预报,2008,25(4):108-120.
[12]陈晓斌,周林,陈璇,等.东中国海HYCOM模式垂向坐标对比研究[J].海洋科学,2015(7):60-68.