全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中国极端低温事件变化与耕地暴露度研究
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摘要
基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟的1960—2100年逐日最低气温数据及2000年中国土地利用数据,采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)方法,以全球升温1.5℃(RCP 2.6情景)和2.0℃(RCP 4.5情景)为目标,研究不同持续时间中国极端低温事件变化特征、最强极端低温事件强度与面积关系和最强中心空间分布,分析极端低温事件下耕地面积暴露度的变化规律。研究发现:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,持续1至9 d的极端低温事件频次相对于基准期(1986—2005年)下降30%—54%,强度变化-1%—8.8%,影响面积下降7%—21%;升温2.0℃,频次下降48%—80%,强度上升6%—11.5%,影响面积则在-14%—19%变化。(2)全球不同升温情景有可能发生强度和面积超过基准期最强事件的极端低温。全球升温1.5—2.0℃时,同等面积上的最强极端低温事件强度明显下降,但最强极端低温事件中心由西北和西南转移到华中和华南等地。(3)不同升温情景下,暴露于极端低温事件的中国耕地面积明显少于基准期,且升温幅度越高下降程度越大。最强极端低温事件的耕地暴露度则随温度的升高而增大。升温1.5℃时,华东、华北与华中等地暴露在最强极端低温事件的耕地面积相对于基准期有所增大,升温2.0℃时,华东与华北等地有大幅度上升。全球不同升温情景下,极端低温事件频次与影响面积持续下降,但强度上升;随着升温幅度的增大,这种差异变化特征越来越明显;特别应注意的是,随着温度上升,发生强度和面积超过当前记录到的最强极端低温事件的可能性增大;应加强极端事件的预警、预报和监测,减缓经济社会的损失。
Based on daily minimum temperatures simulated by the COSMO-CLM(CCLM) for 1960-2100 and the landuse data in2000 in China,the Intensity-Area-Duration(IAD) method was applied to characterize the extreme low-temperature events,the relationship between the intensity and spatial coverage of extreme low-temperature events,the spatial distribution of the most severe lowtemperature events,and the exposure of farmlands to extreme low-temperature events under the global warming of 1.5℃(RCP 2.6 scenario) and 2.0℃(RCP 4.5 scenario). The results are as follows.(1) During the period of 1.5℃ warming,the frequency of extreme low-temperature events that can last for one to nine days will decrease by 30%-54%,the intensity will change by-1%-8.8%,and the area influenced by the extreme low-temperature events will decrease by 7%-21% compared to that during the reference period(1986-2005). For the 2.0℃ warming period,the frequency of the extreme low-temperature events will decrease by 48%-80%,the intensity will increase by 6%-11.5%,and the area affected by extreme low-temperature events will change by-14%-19%.(2) There are possibilities that both the intensity of and the area affected by the extreme low-temperature events in the future will exceed that of the most severe event in the reference period. Intensity of the most severe event in the context of 1.5℃ warming will be stronger than that in the context of 2.0℃ warming over the same area,but the center of the most severe event might move from Northwest and Southwest China to Central and South China.(3) Farmland exposure to the extreme low-temperature events will decrease in the warming periods than in the reference period,and the higher the temperature increase,the greater the decrease. However,farmland exposure to the most severe events will increase to a certain extent in East,North and Central China in the context of 1.5℃ warming,and such increases are even more obvious in East and North China in the context of 2.0℃ warming. Aforementioned findings indicate that frequency and coverage of the extreme low-temperature events will decrease,but their intensity might increase with the rising of temperature. With the increasing occurrence probability of the most severe event with higher intensity over larger area than that in the past,improvement of early warning is still imperative for mitigation of the societal and economic impact of extreme events.
Based on daily minimum temperatures simulated by the COSMO-CLM(CCLM) for 1960-2100 and the landuse data in2000 in China,the Intensity-Area-Duration(IAD) method was applied to characterize the extreme low-temperature events,the relationship between the intensity and spatial coverage of extreme low-temperature events,the spatial distribution of the most severe lowtemperature events,and the exposure of farmlands to extreme low-temperature events under the global warming of 1.5℃(RCP 2.6 scenario) and 2.0℃(RCP 4.5 scenario). The results are as follows.(1) During the period of 1.5℃ warming,the frequency of extreme low-temperature events that can last for one to nine days will decrease by 30%-54%,the intensity will change by-1%-8.8%,and the area influenced by the extreme low-temperature events will decrease by 7%-21% compared to that during the reference period(1986-2005). For the 2.0℃ warming period,the frequency of the extreme low-temperature events will decrease by 48%-80%,the intensity will increase by 6%-11.5%,and the area affected by extreme low-temperature events will change by-14%-19%.(2) There are possibilities that both the intensity of and the area affected by the extreme low-temperature events in the future will exceed that of the most severe event in the reference period. Intensity of the most severe event in the context of 1.5℃ warming will be stronger than that in the context of 2.0℃ warming over the same area,but the center of the most severe event might move from Northwest and Southwest China to Central and South China.(3) Farmland exposure to the extreme low-temperature events will decrease in the warming periods than in the reference period,and the higher the temperature increase,the greater the decrease. However,farmland exposure to the most severe events will increase to a certain extent in East,North and Central China in the context of 1.5℃ warming,and such increases are even more obvious in East and North China in the context of 2.0℃ warming. Aforementioned findings indicate that frequency and coverage of the extreme low-temperature events will decrease,but their intensity might increase with the rising of temperature. With the increasing occurrence probability of the most severe event with higher intensity over larger area than that in the past,improvement of early warning is still imperative for mitigation of the societal and economic impact of extreme events.
引文
陈静,刘洪滨,王艳君等.2016.华北平原干旱事件特征及农业用地暴露度演变分析.中国农业气象,37(5):587-598.Chen J,Liu H B,Wang Y J,et al.2016.Variation of drought characteristics and its agricultural exposure in North China Plain.Chinese J Agrometeorol,37(5):587-598(in Chinese)
陈海山,刘蕾,朱月佳.2012.中国冬季极端低温事件与天气尺度瞬变波的可能联系.中国科学:地球科学,42(12):1951-1965.Chen H S,Liu L,Zhu Y J.2013.Possible linkage between winter extreme low temperature events over China and synoptic-scale transient wave activity.Sci China Earth Sci,56(7):1226-1280
丁一汇,王遵娅,宋亚芳等.2008.中国南方2008年1月罕见低温雨雪冰冻灾害发生的原因及其与气候变暖的关系.气象学报,66(5):808-825.Ding Y H,Wang Z Y,Song Y F,et al.2008.Causes of the unprecedented freezing disaster in January 2008 and its possible association with the global warming.Acta Meteor Sinica,66(5):808-825(in Chinese)
高超,张正涛,陈实等.2014.RCP4.5情景下淮河流域气候变化的高分辨率模拟.地理研究,33(3):467-477.Gao C,Zhang Z T,Chen S,et al.2014.The high-resolution simulation of climate change model under RCP4.5 scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin.Geogr Res,33(3):467-477(in Chinese)
高学杰.2007.中国地区极端事件预估研究.气候变化研究进展,3(3):162-166.Gao X J.2007.Researches in projection of extreme events in China.Adv Climate Change Res,3(3):162-166(in Chinese)
黄金龙,王艳君,苏布达等.2016.RCP4.5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响.气象,42(5):614-620.Huang JL,Wang Y J,Su B D,et al.2016.Future climate change and its impact on runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under RCP4.5 scenario.Meteor Mon,42(5):614-620(in Chinese)
黄小燕,王小平,王劲松等.2016.1960-2013年中国沿海极端气温事件变化特征.地理科学,36(4):612-620.Huang X Y,Wang XP,Wang J S,et al.2016.Variation of extreme temperature events in coastal region of China in 1960-2013.Scientia Geogr Sinica,36(4):612-620(in Chinese)
景丞,姜彤,王艳君等.2016a.中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究.气象学报,74(4):572-582.Jing C,Jiang T,Wang Y J,et al.2016a.A study on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(4):572-582(in Chinese)
景丞,王艳君,姜彤等.2016b.CMIP5多模式对朝鲜干旱模拟与预估.干旱区资源与环境,30(12):95-102.Jing C,Wang Y J,Jiang T,et al.2016b.Simulation and estimation of droughts in North Korea by CMIP5 multi-model ensembles.J Arid Land Resour Environ,30(12):95-102(in Chinese)
李新周,刘晓东.2012.未来全球气候变暖情景下华东地区极端降水变化的数值模拟研究.热带气象学报,28(3):379-391.Li X Z,Liu X D.2012.Numerical simulations of extreme precipitation in eastern China under A1B scenario.J Trop Meteor,28(3):379-391(in Chinese)
孟玉婧,姜彤,苏布达等.2013.高分辨率区域气候模式CCLM对鄱阳湖流域气温的模拟评估.中国农业气象,34(2):123-129.Meng Y J,Jiang T,Su B D,et al.2013.Temperature simulation assessment by high resolution regional climate model(CCLM)in Poyang Lake Basin.Chinese J Agrometeorol,34(2):123-129(in Chinese)
任福民,翟盘茂.1998.1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析.大气科学,22(2):217-227.Ren F M,Zhai P M.1998.Study on changes of China’s extreme temperatures during 1951-1990.Scientia Atmos Sinica,22(2):217-227(in Chinese)
陶辉,黄金龙,翟建青等.2013.长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估.气候变化研究进展,9(4):246-251.Tao H,Huang J L,Zhai J Q,et al.2013.Simulation and projection of climate changes under the RCP4.5 scenario in the Yangtze River Basin based on CCLM.Progr Inquisit Mutat Climat,9(4):246-251(in Chinese)
陶诗言,卫捷.2008.2008年1月我国南方严重冰雪灾害过程分析.气候与环境研究,13(4):337-350.Tao S Y,Wei J.2008.Severe snow and freezing-rain in January 2008 in the southern China.Climatic Environ Res,13(4):337-350(in Chinese)
翟盘茂,任福民.1997.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化.气象学报,55(4):418-429.Zhai P M,Ren F M.1997.On changes of China's maximum and minimum temperatures in the recent 40 years.Acta Meteor Sinica,55(4):418-429(in Chinese)
朱娴韵,苏布达,黄金龙等.2015.云南气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景预估.长江流域资源与环境,24(3):476-481.Zhu X Y,Su B D,Huang J L,et al.2015.Simulation of climatic change in Yunnan province and RCP4.5 scenario projected trend by CCLM.Resour Environ Yangtze Basin,24(3):476-481(in Chinese)
周雅清,任国玉.2010.中国大陆1956-2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析.气候与环境研究,15(4):406-417.Zhou Y Q,Ren GY.2010.Variation characteristics of extreme temperature indices in mainland China during 1956-2008.Climatic Environ Res,15(4):406-417(in Chinese)
Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.JGeophys Res,111(D5):D05109
Caesar J,Alexander L,Vose R.2006.Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures:Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set.J Geophys Res,111(D5):D05101
Cooter E J,Leduc S K.1995.Recent frost date trends in the north-eastern USA.Int J Climatol,15(1):65-75
Field C B,Barros V,Stocker T F,et al.2012.Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation:Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,592 pp
Fischer T,Menz C,Su B D,et al.2013.Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin,South China,using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM.Int J Climatol,33(14):2988-3001
Frich P,Alexander L V,Della-Marta P,et al.2002.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century.Climate Res,19(3):193-212
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis:Working GroupⅠContribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,UK,New York,USA:Cambridge University Press
Karl T R,Kukla G,Razuvayev V N,et al.1991.Global warming:Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change.Geophys Res Lett,18(12):2253-2256
Manton M J,Della-Marta P M,Haylock M R,et al.2001.Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific:1961-1998.Int J Climatol,21(3):269-284
Pal I,Al-Tabbaa A.2010.Long-term changes and variability of monthly extreme temperatures in India.Theor Appl Climatol,100(1-2):45-56
Peterson T C,Taylor M A,Demeritte R,et al.2002.Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region.J Geophys Res,107(D21):ACL 16-1-ACL 16-9
Plummer N,Salinger M J,Nicholls N,et al.1999.Changes in climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the twentieth century.Climatic Change,42(1):183-202
Rusticucci M.2012.Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America.Atmos Res,106:1-17
Schleussner C F,Lissner T K,Fischer E M,et al.2016.Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming:The case of 1.5℃and 2℃.Earth Syst Dyn,2016,7(2):327-351
Su B D,Jiang T,Jin W B.2006.Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China.Theor Appl Climatol,83(1-4):139-151
Su B D,Huang J L,Gemmer M,et al.2016a.Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin.Atmos Res,178-179:138-149
Su B D,Huang J L,Zeng X F,et al.2016b.Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River Basin.Climatic Change,doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1852-5(in Press)
Warszawski L,Frieler K,Huber V,et al.2013.The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project(ISI-MIP):Project framework.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,111(9):3228-3232
Xu Y,Xu C H.2012.Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models.Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett,5(6):489-494
Yang J H,Ren C Y,Jiang Z H.2008.Characteristics of extreme temperature event and its response to regional warming in northwest China in Past 45 Years.Chinese Geogr Sci,18(1):70-76
Zhai J Q,Huang J L,Su B D,et al.2017.Intensity-area-duration analysis of droughts in China 1960-2013.Climate Dyn,48(1-2):151-168
Zhou W,Chan J C L,Chen W,et al.2009.Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over southern China in January 2008.Mon Wea Rev,137(11):3978-3991
陈海山,刘蕾,朱月佳.2012.中国冬季极端低温事件与天气尺度瞬变波的可能联系.中国科学:地球科学,42(12):1951-1965.Chen H S,Liu L,Zhu Y J.2013.Possible linkage between winter extreme low temperature events over China and synoptic-scale transient wave activity.Sci China Earth Sci,56(7):1226-1280
丁一汇,王遵娅,宋亚芳等.2008.中国南方2008年1月罕见低温雨雪冰冻灾害发生的原因及其与气候变暖的关系.气象学报,66(5):808-825.Ding Y H,Wang Z Y,Song Y F,et al.2008.Causes of the unprecedented freezing disaster in January 2008 and its possible association with the global warming.Acta Meteor Sinica,66(5):808-825(in Chinese)
高超,张正涛,陈实等.2014.RCP4.5情景下淮河流域气候变化的高分辨率模拟.地理研究,33(3):467-477.Gao C,Zhang Z T,Chen S,et al.2014.The high-resolution simulation of climate change model under RCP4.5 scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin.Geogr Res,33(3):467-477(in Chinese)
高学杰.2007.中国地区极端事件预估研究.气候变化研究进展,3(3):162-166.Gao X J.2007.Researches in projection of extreme events in China.Adv Climate Change Res,3(3):162-166(in Chinese)
黄金龙,王艳君,苏布达等.2016.RCP4.5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响.气象,42(5):614-620.Huang JL,Wang Y J,Su B D,et al.2016.Future climate change and its impact on runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under RCP4.5 scenario.Meteor Mon,42(5):614-620(in Chinese)
黄小燕,王小平,王劲松等.2016.1960-2013年中国沿海极端气温事件变化特征.地理科学,36(4):612-620.Huang X Y,Wang XP,Wang J S,et al.2016.Variation of extreme temperature events in coastal region of China in 1960-2013.Scientia Geogr Sinica,36(4):612-620(in Chinese)
景丞,姜彤,王艳君等.2016a.中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究.气象学报,74(4):572-582.Jing C,Jiang T,Wang Y J,et al.2016a.A study on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China.Acta Meteor Sinica,74(4):572-582(in Chinese)
景丞,王艳君,姜彤等.2016b.CMIP5多模式对朝鲜干旱模拟与预估.干旱区资源与环境,30(12):95-102.Jing C,Wang Y J,Jiang T,et al.2016b.Simulation and estimation of droughts in North Korea by CMIP5 multi-model ensembles.J Arid Land Resour Environ,30(12):95-102(in Chinese)
李新周,刘晓东.2012.未来全球气候变暖情景下华东地区极端降水变化的数值模拟研究.热带气象学报,28(3):379-391.Li X Z,Liu X D.2012.Numerical simulations of extreme precipitation in eastern China under A1B scenario.J Trop Meteor,28(3):379-391(in Chinese)
孟玉婧,姜彤,苏布达等.2013.高分辨率区域气候模式CCLM对鄱阳湖流域气温的模拟评估.中国农业气象,34(2):123-129.Meng Y J,Jiang T,Su B D,et al.2013.Temperature simulation assessment by high resolution regional climate model(CCLM)in Poyang Lake Basin.Chinese J Agrometeorol,34(2):123-129(in Chinese)
任福民,翟盘茂.1998.1951-1990年中国极端气温变化分析.大气科学,22(2):217-227.Ren F M,Zhai P M.1998.Study on changes of China’s extreme temperatures during 1951-1990.Scientia Atmos Sinica,22(2):217-227(in Chinese)
陶辉,黄金龙,翟建青等.2013.长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估.气候变化研究进展,9(4):246-251.Tao H,Huang J L,Zhai J Q,et al.2013.Simulation and projection of climate changes under the RCP4.5 scenario in the Yangtze River Basin based on CCLM.Progr Inquisit Mutat Climat,9(4):246-251(in Chinese)
陶诗言,卫捷.2008.2008年1月我国南方严重冰雪灾害过程分析.气候与环境研究,13(4):337-350.Tao S Y,Wei J.2008.Severe snow and freezing-rain in January 2008 in the southern China.Climatic Environ Res,13(4):337-350(in Chinese)
翟盘茂,任福民.1997.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化.气象学报,55(4):418-429.Zhai P M,Ren F M.1997.On changes of China's maximum and minimum temperatures in the recent 40 years.Acta Meteor Sinica,55(4):418-429(in Chinese)
朱娴韵,苏布达,黄金龙等.2015.云南气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景预估.长江流域资源与环境,24(3):476-481.Zhu X Y,Su B D,Huang J L,et al.2015.Simulation of climatic change in Yunnan province and RCP4.5 scenario projected trend by CCLM.Resour Environ Yangtze Basin,24(3):476-481(in Chinese)
周雅清,任国玉.2010.中国大陆1956-2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析.气候与环境研究,15(4):406-417.Zhou Y Q,Ren GY.2010.Variation characteristics of extreme temperature indices in mainland China during 1956-2008.Climatic Environ Res,15(4):406-417(in Chinese)
Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.JGeophys Res,111(D5):D05109
Caesar J,Alexander L,Vose R.2006.Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures:Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set.J Geophys Res,111(D5):D05101
Cooter E J,Leduc S K.1995.Recent frost date trends in the north-eastern USA.Int J Climatol,15(1):65-75
Field C B,Barros V,Stocker T F,et al.2012.Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation:Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,592 pp
Fischer T,Menz C,Su B D,et al.2013.Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin,South China,using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM.Int J Climatol,33(14):2988-3001
Frich P,Alexander L V,Della-Marta P,et al.2002.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century.Climate Res,19(3):193-212
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis:Working GroupⅠContribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,UK,New York,USA:Cambridge University Press
Karl T R,Kukla G,Razuvayev V N,et al.1991.Global warming:Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change.Geophys Res Lett,18(12):2253-2256
Manton M J,Della-Marta P M,Haylock M R,et al.2001.Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific:1961-1998.Int J Climatol,21(3):269-284
Pal I,Al-Tabbaa A.2010.Long-term changes and variability of monthly extreme temperatures in India.Theor Appl Climatol,100(1-2):45-56
Peterson T C,Taylor M A,Demeritte R,et al.2002.Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region.J Geophys Res,107(D21):ACL 16-1-ACL 16-9
Plummer N,Salinger M J,Nicholls N,et al.1999.Changes in climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the twentieth century.Climatic Change,42(1):183-202
Rusticucci M.2012.Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America.Atmos Res,106:1-17
Schleussner C F,Lissner T K,Fischer E M,et al.2016.Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming:The case of 1.5℃and 2℃.Earth Syst Dyn,2016,7(2):327-351
Su B D,Jiang T,Jin W B.2006.Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China.Theor Appl Climatol,83(1-4):139-151
Su B D,Huang J L,Gemmer M,et al.2016a.Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin.Atmos Res,178-179:138-149
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