一种优化页岩气产量预测模型的研究
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摘要
页岩气井在进行大规模水力压裂后产量会从生产初期的很高水平快速滑落到一个较低水平并长期维持,由于页岩气井的这一产量特点与其他油气井有较为明显的区别,因此给基于产量预测的产能评价和产量递减水平的预测带来较大的难度。文中提出一种优化页岩气产量的预测模型,该模型在对Arps模型、SEPD模型以及Duong模型等预测的模型深入研究的基础上,通过SEPD模型和Arps模型的组合使用,摒弃了两个模型各自缺陷,提高了模型在页岩气各个生产阶段的产量预测的准确度。通过实例计算表明,该优化模型能较大幅度地提升页岩气产量的预测准确度,其产量预测误差仅为4%。
In the large-scale hydraulic fracturing of shale gas production will be from a very high level of the early production quickly slipped to a low level and maintained for a long time,due to the production characteristics of shale gas and other oil and gas wells have obvious differences,therefore to predict the level of productivity evaluation and prediction of yield decreasing yield based on the great the difficulty. A prediction model of shale gas production optimization model is proposed in this paper,based on the model research of the Arps model,SEPD model and Duong model prediction,through the combination of SEPD model and Arps model,to abandon the two models with their respective defects,improve the prediction model of yield in different stages of the production of shale gas the accuracy of the. By using an example to calculate the surface,the optimized model can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of shale gas production,and the prediction error is only 4%.
In the large-scale hydraulic fracturing of shale gas production will be from a very high level of the early production quickly slipped to a low level and maintained for a long time,due to the production characteristics of shale gas and other oil and gas wells have obvious differences,therefore to predict the level of productivity evaluation and prediction of yield decreasing yield based on the great the difficulty. A prediction model of shale gas production optimization model is proposed in this paper,based on the model research of the Arps model,SEPD model and Duong model prediction,through the combination of SEPD model and Arps model,to abandon the two models with their respective defects,improve the prediction model of yield in different stages of the production of shale gas the accuracy of the. By using an example to calculate the surface,the optimized model can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of shale gas production,and the prediction error is only 4%.
引文
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[13]王世谦.中国页岩气勘探评价若干问题评述[J].天然气工业,2013,33(12):13-29.WANG Shiqian.Some comments on the evaluation of shale gas exploration in China[J].Natural gas industry,2013,33(12):13-29.
[14]王庆波,刘若冰,魏祥峰,等.陆相页岩气成藏地质条件及富集高产主控因素分析——以元坝地区为例[J].断块油气田,2013,20(06):698-703.WANG Qingbo,LIU Ruobing,WEI Xiangfeng,et al.Continental geological condition of shale gas accumulation and enrichment controlling factors analysis-a case study of Guangyuan[J].Fault block oil&gas field,2013,20(06):698-703.
[15]陈桂华,祝彦贺,白玉湖,等.页岩油气水平井井组地质油藏设计流程及其应用[J].中国海上油气,2013,25(06):109-114,123.CHEN Guihua,ZHU Yanhe,BAI Yuhu,et al.Shale reservoir,horizontal well,geologic reservoir,design flow and application[J].China offshore oil and gas,2013,25(06):109-114,123.
[2]张春雨,金大权,刘刚果,等.低渗砂岩气藏水平井产量递减规律分析与合理配产——以苏里格气田某区块为例[J].石油天然气学报,2014,36(11):223-227,12.ZHANG Chunyu,JIN Daquan,LIU Gangguo,et al.Low permeability sandstone gas reservoir horizontal wells production decline analysis and reasonable allocation-Taking the example of an area of Sulige gas field[J].Journal of oil and gas,2014,36(11):223-227,12.
[3]李相方,蒲云超,孙长宇,等.煤层气与页岩气吸附/解吸的理论再认识[J].石油学报,2014,35(06):1113-1129.LI Xiangfang,PU Yunchao,SUN Changyu,et al.Coalbed methane and shale gas adsorption/desorption theory of recognition of[J].Acta petrolei Sinica,2014,35(06):1113-1129.
[4]雷德文,阿布力米提,唐勇,等.准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷百口泉组油气高产区控制因素与分布预测[J].新疆石油地质,2014,35(05):495-499.LEI Dewen,Abu Limiti,TANG Yong,et al.Gas yield area control factors and distribution prediction[J].Xinjiang petroleum geology of Baikouquan oil Mahu depression of Junggar basin,2014,35(05):495-499.
[5]陈元千,张霞林,齐亚东.水平气井二项式方程的推导与应用[J].断块油气田,2014,21(05):601-606.CHEN Yuanqian,ZHANG Xialin,QI Yadong.Derivation and application of binomial equation for horizontal gas well[J].Fault block oil and gas field,2014,21(05):601-606.
[6]王伟锋,刘鹏,郑玲,等.鄂尔多斯盆地天然气储量和产量预测分析[J].天然气地球科学,2014,25(09):1483-1490.WANG Weifeng,LIU Peng,ZHENG Ling,et al.Prediction and analysis of natural gas reserves and production in Ordos Basin[J].Natural Gas Geoscience,2014,25(09):1483-1490.
[7]涂彬,韩洁,孙键.厚层底水油藏油井临界产量计算方法[J].石油钻探技术,2014,42(04):107-110.TU bin,HAN Jie,SUN Jian.Calculation method for critical output of oil wells with thick bottom water reservoirs[J].Petroleum drilling technology,2014,42(04):107-110.
[8]丁峰,卢波,尹成,等.基于SDC敏感属性分析的水平井轨迹优化研究[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2014,36(04):73-78.DING Feng,LU Bo,YIN Cheng,et al.Study of horizontal well trajectory optimization based on SDC sensitive attribute analysis[J].Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Natural Science Edition),2014,36(04):73-78.
[9]曾凡辉,王树义,郭建春,等.裂缝面非均匀流入的气藏压裂水平井产量计算[J].天然气工业,2014,34(05):100-105.CENG Fanhui,WANG Shuyi,GUO Jianchun,et al.Calculation of fractured horizontal wells in inhomogeneous inflow gas reservoirs[J].Natural gas industry,2014,34(05):100-105.
[10]琚宜文,卜红玲,王国昌.页岩气储层主要特征及其对储层改造的影响[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(04):492-506.JU Yiwen,BU Hongling,WANG Guochang.Maincharacteristics of shale gas reservoir and its influence on reservoir reform[J].Earth Science,2014,29(04):492-506.
[11]储层压裂新技术——液化石油气无水压裂技术[J].石油钻探技术,2014,42(02):17.New technology of reservoir fracturing——anhydrous fracturing technology of liquefied petroleum gas[J].Petroleum drilling technology,2014,42(02):17.
[12]陈元千,邹存友,于立君.累积增长预测模型的典型曲线及应用[J].中国海上油气,2014,26(01):54-57.CHEN Yuanqian,ZOU Cunyou,in the making of the emperor.The cumulative growth prediction model of the typical curve and the application of[J].China offshore oil and gas,2014,26(01):54-57.
[13]王世谦.中国页岩气勘探评价若干问题评述[J].天然气工业,2013,33(12):13-29.WANG Shiqian.Some comments on the evaluation of shale gas exploration in China[J].Natural gas industry,2013,33(12):13-29.
[14]王庆波,刘若冰,魏祥峰,等.陆相页岩气成藏地质条件及富集高产主控因素分析——以元坝地区为例[J].断块油气田,2013,20(06):698-703.WANG Qingbo,LIU Ruobing,WEI Xiangfeng,et al.Continental geological condition of shale gas accumulation and enrichment controlling factors analysis-a case study of Guangyuan[J].Fault block oil&gas field,2013,20(06):698-703.
[15]陈桂华,祝彦贺,白玉湖,等.页岩油气水平井井组地质油藏设计流程及其应用[J].中国海上油气,2013,25(06):109-114,123.CHEN Guihua,ZHU Yanhe,BAI Yuhu,et al.Shale reservoir,horizontal well,geologic reservoir,design flow and application[J].China offshore oil and gas,2013,25(06):109-114,123.