新疆山区中小河流洪水预报模型及其应用
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摘要
我国中小河流防洪标准普遍偏低,突发性洪水频繁,洪灾损失极为严重。选取新疆山区金沟河和奎屯河,通过MODIS遥感数据提取流域积雪覆盖率,并结合气象台站数据,基于SRM融雪径流模型、逐步多元回归模型和最近邻抽样模型,对流域进行径流模拟。结果显示:3种模型均能很好的模拟金沟河与奎屯河流域的径流过程,率定期与检验期Nash效率系数均达到0.7以上,且3种模型各有优缺点,说明融雪径流模型、逐步多元回归模型与最近邻抽样模型能够应用于金沟河与奎屯河流域的洪水预报,对新疆山区中小河流域防洪预警具有一定的指导意义。
Commonly low standards of flood control for medium and small rivers and frequently occurred flood disaster usually lead to extremely serious economic loss in China. Two typical medium and small rivers,the Jingou River and Kuytun River in alpine areas in Xinjiang,were selected in this study. Based on snowmelt runoff model,stepwise multivariate regression and nearest neighbor bootstrap regression,the daily runoff volumes of the two catchments were simulated after collecting the hydrological data,meteorological data and the snow cover data extracted from MODIS remote sensing imags. The results showed that the three models could be used to well simulate the runoff process of the Jingou River and Kuytun River catchments,Nash efficiency coefficients in both calibration and validation periods were higher than 0. 7,and each model had its own advantages and disadvantages,which means that the snowmelt runoff model,stepwise multivariate regression and nearest neighbor bootstrap regression could be applied to predict flood in the Jingou River and Kuytun River catchments. The study results are of some guiding significance for preventing and early-warning flood of the medium and small rivers in alpine area.
Commonly low standards of flood control for medium and small rivers and frequently occurred flood disaster usually lead to extremely serious economic loss in China. Two typical medium and small rivers,the Jingou River and Kuytun River in alpine areas in Xinjiang,were selected in this study. Based on snowmelt runoff model,stepwise multivariate regression and nearest neighbor bootstrap regression,the daily runoff volumes of the two catchments were simulated after collecting the hydrological data,meteorological data and the snow cover data extracted from MODIS remote sensing imags. The results showed that the three models could be used to well simulate the runoff process of the Jingou River and Kuytun River catchments,Nash efficiency coefficients in both calibration and validation periods were higher than 0. 7,and each model had its own advantages and disadvantages,which means that the snowmelt runoff model,stepwise multivariate regression and nearest neighbor bootstrap regression could be applied to predict flood in the Jingou River and Kuytun River catchments. The study results are of some guiding significance for preventing and early-warning flood of the medium and small rivers in alpine area.
引文
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[15]侯慧姝,杨宏业.MODIS积雪产品及研究应用概述[J].遥感技术与应用,2009(2):252-256.[Hou Huishu Yang Hongye.A general introduction to MODIS snow products and its researching application[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2009(2):252-256.]
[16]张颖,黄晓东,王玮,等.MODIS逐日积雪覆盖率产品验证及算法重建[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(5):808-814.[Zhang Ying,Huang Xiaodong,Wang Wei,et al.Validation and algorithm redevelopment of MODIS daily fractional snow cover products[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(5):808-814.]
[17]Martinec J,Rango A,Roberts R.The Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM)User’s Manual:Version 4.0[M].Berne:University of Berne,1998:7-57.
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[19]李弘毅,王建.SRM融雪径流模型在黑河流域上游的模拟研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(5):769-775.[Li Hongyi,Wang Jian.The snowmelt runoff model applied in the upper Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(5):769-775.]
[20]苑希民,李鸿雁,刘树坤,等.神经网络和遗传算法在水科学领域的应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.[Yuan Ximin,Li Hongyan,Liu Shukun,et al.Application of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm in Water Science[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2002.]
[21]张丽霞.新疆塔城地区农九师中小河流中长期预报问题的研究——以乌拉斯台河为例[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2006.[Zhang Lixia.Study on the Mid and Long Term Hydrological Forecast of Mid-Short River in Nongjiushi of Tacheng Prefecture of Xinjiang:A Case Study of the Wulasitai River[D].Urumqi:Xinjiang Agricultural University,2006.]
[2]席小康,朱仲元,宋小园,等.锡林河流域融雪径流时间变化特征与成因分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):150-159.[Xi Xiaokang,Zhu Zhongyuan,Song Xiaoyuan,et al.Time variation chracteristics and genetic analysis of snowmelt runoff in Xilin River Basin[J].Reseach of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(6):150-159.]
[3]赵勇,黄丹青,古丽格娜,等.新疆北部夏季强降水分析[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(5):773-779.[Zhao Yong,Huang Danqing,Guligena,et al.Analysis on summer heavy rainfall in the Northern Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2010,27(5):773-779.]
[4]李继荣,赵健宇,杨乐,等.西藏雨季主要水体氢、氧同位素特征[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(2):411-415.[Li Jirong,Zhao Jianyu,Yang Le,et al.Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in waters in Tibet[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(2):411-415.]
[5]柳林,安会静.中小河流洪水预报的难点与解决方案探讨[J].海河水利,2013(5):51-53.[Liu Lin,An Huijing.Discussion on difficulties and solutions of flood forecasting in medium and small rivers[J].Haihe Water Resources,2013(5):51-53.]
[6]亚力昆·马合木提.探析中小河流洪水预报的难点与解决方案[J].黑龙江水利科技,2014(3):70-71.[Yalikun·Mahemuti.Discussion on the difficulties and solutions of flood forecast in middle and small rivers[J].Heilongjiang Science and Technology of Water Conservancy,2014(3):70-71.]
[7]Martinec J,Rango A.Parameter values for snowmelt runoff modelling[J].Journal of Hydrology,1986,84(3/4):197-219.
[8]Rango A,Martinec J.Application of a snowmelt-runoff model using Landsat data[J].Nordic Hydrology,1979,10(4):225-238.
[9]Tahir A A,Chevallier P,Arnaud Y,et al.Modeling snowmelt-runoff under climate scenarios in the Hunza River basin,Karakoram Range,Northern Pakistan[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,409(1/2):104-117.
[10]马虹,程国栋.SRM融雪径流模型在西天山巩乃斯河流域的应用实验[J].科学通报,2003,48(19):2 088-2 093.[Ma Hong,Cheng Guodong.Application of snowmelt runoff model in Kunes River Basin of Western Tianshan Mountains[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(19):2 088-2 093.]
[11]冯学智,李文君,史正涛,等.卫星雪盖监测与玛纳斯河融雪径流模拟[J].遥感技术与应用,2000,15(1):18-21.[Feng Xuezhi,Li Wenjun,Shi Zhengtao,et al.Satellite snowcover monitoring and snowmelt runoff simulation of Manas River in Tianshan Region[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2000,15(1):18-21.]
[12]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.SRM融雪径流模型在乌鲁木齐河源区的应用研究[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(1):41-48.[Huai Baojuan,Li Zhongqin,Sun Meiping,et al.Snowmelt runoff model applied in the headwaters region of Urumqi River[J].Arid Land Geography,2013,36(1):41-48.]
[13]魏天锋,刘志辉,王元.积雪覆盖下的季节性冻土对融雪水出流的影响[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(3):435-441.[Wei Tianfeng,Liu Zhihui,Wang Yuan.Effect on snowmelt water outflow of snow-covered seasonal frozen soil[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(3):435-441.]
[14]刘晔,汤成友.最近邻抽样回归模型及其在枯水期月径流预报中的应用[J].水科学与工程技术,2011(6):14-17.[Liu Ye,Tang Chengyou.Application of nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive model in the dry season monthly runoff forecast[J].Water Sciences and Engineering Technology,2011(6):14-17.]
[15]侯慧姝,杨宏业.MODIS积雪产品及研究应用概述[J].遥感技术与应用,2009(2):252-256.[Hou Huishu Yang Hongye.A general introduction to MODIS snow products and its researching application[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2009(2):252-256.]
[16]张颖,黄晓东,王玮,等.MODIS逐日积雪覆盖率产品验证及算法重建[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(5):808-814.[Zhang Ying,Huang Xiaodong,Wang Wei,et al.Validation and algorithm redevelopment of MODIS daily fractional snow cover products[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(5):808-814.]
[17]Martinec J,Rango A,Roberts R.The Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM)User’s Manual:Version 4.0[M].Berne:University of Berne,1998:7-57.
[18]穆艾塔尔·赛地,丁建丽,阿不都·沙拉木,等.天山北坡山区流域融雪径流模拟研究[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(3):636-642.[Muaitaer Saidi,Ding Jianli,Abudu Shalamu,et al.Simulation of snowmelt runoff in the catchments on northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(3):636-642.]
[19]李弘毅,王建.SRM融雪径流模型在黑河流域上游的模拟研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(5):769-775.[Li Hongyi,Wang Jian.The snowmelt runoff model applied in the upper Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(5):769-775.]
[20]苑希民,李鸿雁,刘树坤,等.神经网络和遗传算法在水科学领域的应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.[Yuan Ximin,Li Hongyan,Liu Shukun,et al.Application of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm in Water Science[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2002.]
[21]张丽霞.新疆塔城地区农九师中小河流中长期预报问题的研究——以乌拉斯台河为例[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2006.[Zhang Lixia.Study on the Mid and Long Term Hydrological Forecast of Mid-Short River in Nongjiushi of Tacheng Prefecture of Xinjiang:A Case Study of the Wulasitai River[D].Urumqi:Xinjiang Agricultural University,2006.]