基于GWR模型的江苏省耕地集约利用水平时空变化特征及影响因素
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摘要
全面考虑耕地集约利用的综合效益,从投入强度、利用程度、产出效益和持续状况4个方面选取了15个指标,采用均方差决策法确定指标权重,构建了耕地集约利用水平评价指标体系,对江苏省2000～2015年的耕地集约利用水平进行了时空变化规律的探索分析,并运用GWR模型进行了影响因素分析。探究江苏省的耕地集约利用水平及其变化趋势,寻求耕地节约集约利用模式,为缓解我国人地矛盾,保证国家粮食安全提供借鉴。研究表明:(1) 2000～2015年江苏省的耕地集约利用整体水平呈现出先上升后平稳发展的变化趋势,其时序变化可分为两个不同阶段。(2)苏北地区的县(市)多处于中高度集约利用水平且多为高度水平,苏中地区的状况有所好转,但苏南地区的大部分县(市)整体保持低度集约利用水平甚至不集约水平稳定不变。整体来看,江苏省的耕地集约利用水平呈现出北高南低的空间分布特征。(3) GWR模型能够科学准确地进行耕地集约利用影响因素的分析,投入强度是影响江苏省耕地集约利用水平极为重要的因素,其次是持续状况,而利用程度的影响程度存在明显的时空差异,产出效益的影响程度在逐渐增强。
The research method: This paper considered the comprehensive benefit of intensive use of cultivated land,and selected 15 indexes from four aspects: input intensity, utilization degree, output benefit and sustainable condition. The methods of entropy weight and mean variance decision were used to determine the index weight synthetically,and the evaluation of intensive utilization of cultivated land was constructed. The system of spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land intensive use level in Northern Jiangsu from 2000 to2015 were analyzed,and the GWR model was used to analyze the influence factors. The purpose of this study was to explore the level of intensive use of cultivated land and its changing trend in Northern Jiangsu Province,and to seek the mode of saving and intensive use of cultivated land as a reference for alleviating the contradiction between people and land,and guaranteeing the national food security. The results and conclusions were as follows:( 1)from the overall level of intensive use of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015,the trend of the first rising and stable development were presented,and the change of time series could be divided into two different stages.( 2) The counties( cities) in Northern Jiangsu were mostly in the middle and high intensive use level and high level. The state of the Central Jiangsu area had improved,but most of the counties( cities) in the Southern Jiangsu maintained the level of low intensive use or not even intensive level. Overall,the intensive use level of cultivated land in Jiangsu showed the spatial distribution characteristics of the north and the south.( 3)GWR can scientifically and accurately analyze the factors affecting the intensive use of cultivated land. The results showed that the intensity of input was the most important factor affecting the intensive use of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015,followed by the continuous situation,and the extent of the impact of the utilization degree had obvious spatial and temporal difference,and the effect of output benefit was increasing gradually.
The research method: This paper considered the comprehensive benefit of intensive use of cultivated land,and selected 15 indexes from four aspects: input intensity, utilization degree, output benefit and sustainable condition. The methods of entropy weight and mean variance decision were used to determine the index weight synthetically,and the evaluation of intensive utilization of cultivated land was constructed. The system of spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land intensive use level in Northern Jiangsu from 2000 to2015 were analyzed,and the GWR model was used to analyze the influence factors. The purpose of this study was to explore the level of intensive use of cultivated land and its changing trend in Northern Jiangsu Province,and to seek the mode of saving and intensive use of cultivated land as a reference for alleviating the contradiction between people and land,and guaranteeing the national food security. The results and conclusions were as follows:( 1)from the overall level of intensive use of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015,the trend of the first rising and stable development were presented,and the change of time series could be divided into two different stages.( 2) The counties( cities) in Northern Jiangsu were mostly in the middle and high intensive use level and high level. The state of the Central Jiangsu area had improved,but most of the counties( cities) in the Southern Jiangsu maintained the level of low intensive use or not even intensive level. Overall,the intensive use level of cultivated land in Jiangsu showed the spatial distribution characteristics of the north and the south.( 3)GWR can scientifically and accurately analyze the factors affecting the intensive use of cultivated land. The results showed that the intensity of input was the most important factor affecting the intensive use of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015,followed by the continuous situation,and the extent of the impact of the utilization degree had obvious spatial and temporal difference,and the effect of output benefit was increasing gradually.
引文
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[4] LEFRORY R D B,BECHSTEDT H D,RAIS M. Indicators for sustainable land management based on farmer surveysin Vietnam,Indonesia, and Thailand[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment,2000,81(2):137-146.
[5]邵晓梅,王静.小城镇开发区土地集约利用评价研究——以浙江省慈溪市为例[J].地理科学进展,2008,(1):75-81.SHAO X M,WANG J. Evaluation of land intensive utilization in small town development zone:A case study of Cixi City,Zhejiang Province[J]. Progress in Geography,2008,(1):75-81.
[6]陈伟,吴群.考虑耕地质量差异影响的江苏省耕地集约利用评价[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(15):244-253.CHEN W,WU Q. Assessment of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province considering the cultivated land quality difference[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(15):244-253.
[7]陈瑜琦,李秀彬.中国耕地利用集约度的结构特征[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):469-478.CHEN Y Q,LI X B. Structural characteristics of intensive use of cultivated land in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):469-478.
[8]王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.WANG G G,LIU Y S,CHEN Y F. Analysis of the intensive utilization situation and driving forces of cultivated land in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(7):907-915.
[9]杜国明,刘彦随.黑龙江省耕地集约利用评价研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(3):554-560.DU G M,LIU Y S. Evaluation of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Resources Science,2013,35(3):554-560.
[10]丁超,许皞,张祥义.河北省耕地集约利用时空分异特征[J].土壤通报,2014,45(3):550-555.DING C,XU F,ZHANG X Y. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Hebei Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Soil Science,2014,45(3):550-555.
[11]杜涛,贾春香.耕地集约利用时空特征及其变化规律研究——以新疆为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(9):114-118.DU T,JIA C X. Study on the spatial-temporal characteristics and change rules of intensive utilization of cultivated land:Taking Xinjiang as an example[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(9):114-118.
[12]邓楚雄,谢炳庚,李晓青,等.基于投影寻踪法的长株潭城市群地区耕地集约利用评价[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2000-2008.DENG C X,XIE B G,LI X Q,et al. Evaluation of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration area based on projection pursuit method[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(11):2000-2008.
[13]于丹丹,刘淑英,王平,等.甘肃省耕地集约利用空间分析[J].土壤通报,2015,46(6):1299-1306.YU D D,LIU S Y,WANG P,et al. Spatial analysis of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Gansu Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Soil Science,2015,46(6):1299-1306.
[14]祝小迁,程久苗,费罗成.安徽省耕地集约利用及其驱动力分析[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(2):11-17.ZHU X Q,CHENG J M,FEI L C. Analysis of intensive utilization of cultivated land and its driving forces in Anhui Province[J]. China Land Sciences,2009,23(2):11-17.
[15]程久苗,祝小迁.安徽省耕地集约利用时空变化特征研究[J].土壤,2009,41(3):360-365.CHENG J M,ZHU X Q. Study on the spatiotemporal change characteristics of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Anhui Province[J]. Soils,2009,41(3):360-365.
[16]倪超,杨胜天,罗娅,等.基于循环经济的黑龙江省耕地利用集约度时空差异[J].地理研究,2015,34(2):341-350.NI C,YANG S T,LUO Y,et al. Spatio-temporal difference of cultivated land use intensity in Heilongjiang Province based on circular economy[J]. Geographical Research,2015,34(2):341-350.
[17]阳艳飞.福建省耕地集约利用水平研究[D].福建师范大学,2009.YANG Y F. Study on the intensive utilization level of cultivated land in Fujian[D]. Fujian Normal University,2009.
[18]赵京,杨钢桥.耕地集约利用与经济发展的耦合关系[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(9):35-41.ZHAO J,YANG G Q. Coupling relationship between intensive utilization of cultivated land and economic development[J].China Land Sciences,2011,25(9):35-41.
[19]张荣天,焦华富.中国省际耕地利用效率时空格局分异与机制分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(2):277-287.ZHANG R T,JIAO H F. Spatial-temporal pattern and mechanism analysis of cultivated land use efficiency in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(2):277-287.
[20]龙冬冬,赵宏波,宋戈,等.河南省耕地集约利用时空变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(4):223-228.LONG D D,ZHAO H B,SONG G,et al. Study on the spatiotemporal change characteristics of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Henan Province[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(4):223-228.
[21]刘玉,郝星耀,潘瑜春,等.河南省耕地集约利用时空分异及分区研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(10):1218-1225.LIU Y,HAO X Y,PAN Y C,et al. Study on spatial-temporal differentiation and zoning of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Henan Province[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(10):1218-1225.
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