川藏公路藏东段边坡稳定性研究与治理评价
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摘要
川藏公路是一带一路南亚通道的主要干线,其藏东段地质灾害频发,如何有效治理、保障安全畅通意义重大。文章在详细调查的基础上,对取得的藏东段沿线所有边坡数据进行统计及特征分析,利用随机森林理论建立了边坡稳定性评判模型,根据计算出的影响因素重要性大小对边坡的稳定性进行判别,模型检验表明其准确率超过94.44%,同时结合实地验证,对边坡的治理提出了可行性建议,为川藏公路藏东段的有效治理提供实用参考资料。
The eastern Tibet section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway is always suffered by unstable slopes even after years of repeated governance. In order to solve this urgent problem, a good knowledge of all slope data and slope treatment status of this area must be obtained. Totally 204 slopes along the Highway have been investigated in detail for three years. The present situation of slope treatment was counted, and its characteristics were analyzed distinguish by soil and rock landslides. Based upon data, factors causing slope instability were analyzed, and slope stability evaluation model was established using random forest method. The importance of influencing factors for slope stability and stability of all slopes were calculated by the model, and the model test showed that the accuracy was over 94.44%. The study results of this article could be used in the engineering management of highway works department. Also, suggestions are proposed on the management of highway slope based on the field investigation.
The eastern Tibet section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway is always suffered by unstable slopes even after years of repeated governance. In order to solve this urgent problem, a good knowledge of all slope data and slope treatment status of this area must be obtained. Totally 204 slopes along the Highway have been investigated in detail for three years. The present situation of slope treatment was counted, and its characteristics were analyzed distinguish by soil and rock landslides. Based upon data, factors causing slope instability were analyzed, and slope stability evaluation model was established using random forest method. The importance of influencing factors for slope stability and stability of all slopes were calculated by the model, and the model test showed that the accuracy was over 94.44%. The study results of this article could be used in the engineering management of highway works department. Also, suggestions are proposed on the management of highway slope based on the field investigation.
引文
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[6] 祝介旺, 苏天明, 张路青, 等. 川藏公路102滑坡失稳因素与治理方案研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2010, 37(3): 43～47.ZHU Jiewang, SU Tianming, ZHANG Luqing, et al. Studies of factors influencing the stability of No. 102 landslide and controlling scheme at the Sichuan-Tibet highway[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2010, 37(3): 43～47. (in Chinese with English abstract)
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[9] 张佳佳, 陈龙, 王军朝, 等. 藏东南鲁朗-通麦崩塌滑坡孕灾地质背景特征研究[J]. 地质力学学报, 2018, 24(4): 474～481.ZHANG Jiajia, CHEN Long, WANG Junchao, et al. Study of disaster-inducing geological conditions of collapse and landslide along Lulang-Tongmai in SE Tibet[J]. Journal of Geomechanics, 2018, 24(4): 474～481. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[10] 李铭, 支喜兰, 柳波. 川藏公路南线西藏境内病害类型分析与防治措施研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2015, 24(1): 185～190.LI Ming, ZHI Xilan, LIU Bo. Type analysis and prevention-cotrol measures of disease in south line of Sichuan-Tibet highway in territory Tibet[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2015, 24(1): 185～190. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[11] 冯雨林. 三维遥感图像模型在川藏公路典型地质灾害预警中的应用[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2005.FENG Yulin. The application of three-dimensional remote sensing image model in representative geological disasters warming in Chengdu-Lhasa’s national highway[D]. Changchun: Jilin University, 2005. (in Chinese)
[12] 贾海兰. 川藏公路沿线灾害的类型与特点[J]. 公路交通技术, 2005, (6): 13～16, 35.JIA Hailan. Types and features of along Sichuan-Tibet highway[J]. Technology of Highway and Transport, 2005, (6): 13～16, 35. (in Chinese)
[13] Breiman L. Random forests[J]. Machine Learning, 2001, 45(1): 5～32.
[14] 萧超武, 蔡文学, 黄晓宇, 等. 基于随机森林的个人信用评估模型研究及实证分析[J]. 管理现代化, 2014, 34(6): 111～113.XIAO Chaowu, CAI Wenxue, HUANG Xiaoyu, et al. The personal credit evaluation model based on random forest research and empirical analysis[J]. Management Science, 2014, 34(6): 111～113. (in Chinese)
[15] 姚玮, 温树杰. 随机森林模型在边坡稳定性预测中的应用[J]. 矿业研究与开发, 2017, 37(4): 58～61.YAO Wei, WEN Shujie. Application of random forest model in prediction of slope stability[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2017, 37(4): 58～61. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[16] 温廷新, 张波. 露天煤矿边坡稳定性的随机森林预测模型[J]. 科技导报, 2014, 32(4～5): 105～109.WEN Tingxin, ZHANG Bo. Prediction model for open-pit coal mine slope stability based on random forest[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2014, 32(4～5): 105～109. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[2] 中国科学院, 水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 西藏自治区交通科学研究所. 川藏公路典型山地灾害研究[M]. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社, 1999.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, The Chinese Academy of Sciences and Water Conservancy Ministry, Institute of The Traffic Science, Tibet Autonomous Region. A study of typical mountain hazards along Sichuan-Tibet highway[M]. Chengdu: Chengdu University of Science and Technology Press, 1999. (in Chinese)
[3] 尚彦军, 杨志法, 袁广祥, 等. 雅鲁藏布江大拐弯北部川藏公路地质灾害发育与分布研究[M]. 北京: 中国铁道出版社, 2010.SHANG Yanjun, YANG Zhifa, YUAN Guangxiang, et al. Geohazards development and distribution along Sichuan - Tibet highway in North of the grand canyon of Yarlu Tsangpo River[M]. Beijing: China Railway Publishing House, 2010. (in Chinese)
[4] 杨志法, 尚彦军, 张路青, 等. 川藏公路地质灾害及其防治对策研究——以八宿至林芝路段为例[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2006.YANG Zhifa, SHANG Yanjun, ZHANG Luqing, et al. Geological disasters and its prevention and cure countermeasures of Sichuan-Tibet highway[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2006. (in Chinese)
[5] 孔纪名, 张小刚, 强巴. 川藏公路拉月滑坡的块状破坏特征[J]. 山地学报, 2003, 21(2): 228～233.KONG Jiming, ZHANG Xiaogang, QIANG Ba. Rock lump of landslide of Layue destruction feature analysis in Sichuan-Xizang highway[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2003, 21(2): 228～233. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[6] 祝介旺, 苏天明, 张路青, 等. 川藏公路102滑坡失稳因素与治理方案研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2010, 37(3): 43～47.ZHU Jiewang, SU Tianming, ZHANG Luqing, et al. Studies of factors influencing the stability of No. 102 landslide and controlling scheme at the Sichuan-Tibet highway[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2010, 37(3): 43～47. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[7] 廖秋林, 李晓, 董艳辉, 等. 川藏公路林芝—八宿段地质灾害特征及形成机制初探[J]. 地质力学学报, 2004, 10(1): 33～39.LIAO Qiulin, LI Xiao, DONG Yanhui, et al. Characteristics and formation mechanism of geological hazards along the section from Nyingchi to Baxoi of the Sichuan-Tibet highway[J]. Journal of Geomechanics, 2004, 10(1): 33～39. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[8] 吕光东, 何竹, 金建立. 川藏公路西藏段主要地质灾害及成因分析[J]. 中国西部科技, 2009, 8(2): 7～8.LV Guangdong, HE Zhu, JIN Jianli. Analysis of the main geological disasters and their causes along Tibet section of Sichuan-Tibet highway[J]. Science and Technology of West China, 2009, 8(2): 7～8. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[9] 张佳佳, 陈龙, 王军朝, 等. 藏东南鲁朗-通麦崩塌滑坡孕灾地质背景特征研究[J]. 地质力学学报, 2018, 24(4): 474～481.ZHANG Jiajia, CHEN Long, WANG Junchao, et al. Study of disaster-inducing geological conditions of collapse and landslide along Lulang-Tongmai in SE Tibet[J]. Journal of Geomechanics, 2018, 24(4): 474～481. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[10] 李铭, 支喜兰, 柳波. 川藏公路南线西藏境内病害类型分析与防治措施研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2015, 24(1): 185～190.LI Ming, ZHI Xilan, LIU Bo. Type analysis and prevention-cotrol measures of disease in south line of Sichuan-Tibet highway in territory Tibet[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2015, 24(1): 185～190. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[11] 冯雨林. 三维遥感图像模型在川藏公路典型地质灾害预警中的应用[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2005.FENG Yulin. The application of three-dimensional remote sensing image model in representative geological disasters warming in Chengdu-Lhasa’s national highway[D]. Changchun: Jilin University, 2005. (in Chinese)
[12] 贾海兰. 川藏公路沿线灾害的类型与特点[J]. 公路交通技术, 2005, (6): 13～16, 35.JIA Hailan. Types and features of along Sichuan-Tibet highway[J]. Technology of Highway and Transport, 2005, (6): 13～16, 35. (in Chinese)
[13] Breiman L. Random forests[J]. Machine Learning, 2001, 45(1): 5～32.
[14] 萧超武, 蔡文学, 黄晓宇, 等. 基于随机森林的个人信用评估模型研究及实证分析[J]. 管理现代化, 2014, 34(6): 111～113.XIAO Chaowu, CAI Wenxue, HUANG Xiaoyu, et al. The personal credit evaluation model based on random forest research and empirical analysis[J]. Management Science, 2014, 34(6): 111～113. (in Chinese)
[15] 姚玮, 温树杰. 随机森林模型在边坡稳定性预测中的应用[J]. 矿业研究与开发, 2017, 37(4): 58～61.YAO Wei, WEN Shujie. Application of random forest model in prediction of slope stability[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2017, 37(4): 58～61. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[16] 温廷新, 张波. 露天煤矿边坡稳定性的随机森林预测模型[J]. 科技导报, 2014, 32(4～5): 105～109.WEN Tingxin, ZHANG Bo. Prediction model for open-pit coal mine slope stability based on random forest[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2014, 32(4～5): 105～109. (in Chinese with English abstract)