淮河流域近545年旱涝等级序列完善及变化特征分析
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摘要
结合历史文献资料与实测站点降水数据,补充完善1470—2014年淮河流域8个站点旱涝等级序列,利用泰森多边形法计算各区域面积并进行加权处理,重建淮河流域近545年旱涝等级序列,采用累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析等方法探索旱涝时空变化特征。结果表明:①经典型旱涝年验证,重建的淮河流域旱涝等级序列是基本可靠的,其不符合年数所占比例为12.5%;近545年淮河流域发生涝灾事件的次数多于旱灾的,涝灾平均3.7 a发生一次,旱灾平均5 a发生一次。②淮河流域1470—1542年、1762—1814年和1855—2014年气候偏旱,1543—1761年和1815—1854年气候偏涝,1509年左右气候发生突变,开始偏湿;其旱涝变化周期特征明显,具有39、72、27、100 a以上的周期变化规律,且自1800年以来各时间尺度旱涝变化周期均在不断变短。③旱涝灾害事件的发生频率在空间上存在差异,淮河上游地区旱灾事件的发生频率高于涝灾的,中游、下游及沂沭泗河地区涝灾事件的发生频率高于旱灾的;各地区旱涝灾害事件的发生频率均较高,都在27%以上。
Integrating historical literature data and actual site precipitation data, the drought-flood grade series of eight sites in the Huaihe River basin from 1470 to 2014 was added and improved. The area of each region was calculated by the Voronoi diagram method which was used for weighted processing, and the drought-flood grade series in the Huaihe River basin during the past 545 years were reconstructed. The spatio-temporal variation characteristics of drought-flood were explored by means of cumulative anomaly method, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis and so on. The results showed: ① Reconstructed drought-flood grade series of Huaihe River basin were basically reliable verified by typical drought-flood years, and the proportion of inconformity annual numbers was 12.5%. In recent 545 years, the number of flood events in Huaihe River basin was more than that in drought, with an average of 3.7 years of flood and 5 years of drought. ② The drought periods were 1470-1542, 1762-1814 and 1855-2014 while the flood periods were 1543-1761 and 1815-1854 in Huaihe River basin. Meanwhile, a mutation occurred around 1509, and the climate began to get wet. The change cycle of drought-flood was obvious, with periodic changes of 39, 72, 27 and over 100 years, and the change cycle of drought-flood at every time scale had been shortening since 1800. ③ The frequency of drought-flood disasters was different in space. The frequency of drought events in the upper reaches of Huaihe River was higher than that of flood. The frequency of flood events in Yishusi River, the middle reaches and lower reaches of Huaihe River was higher than that of drought. The frequency of drought-flood events in all regions was quite high, which was over 27%.
Integrating historical literature data and actual site precipitation data, the drought-flood grade series of eight sites in the Huaihe River basin from 1470 to 2014 was added and improved. The area of each region was calculated by the Voronoi diagram method which was used for weighted processing, and the drought-flood grade series in the Huaihe River basin during the past 545 years were reconstructed. The spatio-temporal variation characteristics of drought-flood were explored by means of cumulative anomaly method, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis and so on. The results showed: ① Reconstructed drought-flood grade series of Huaihe River basin were basically reliable verified by typical drought-flood years, and the proportion of inconformity annual numbers was 12.5%. In recent 545 years, the number of flood events in Huaihe River basin was more than that in drought, with an average of 3.7 years of flood and 5 years of drought. ② The drought periods were 1470-1542, 1762-1814 and 1855-2014 while the flood periods were 1543-1761 and 1815-1854 in Huaihe River basin. Meanwhile, a mutation occurred around 1509, and the climate began to get wet. The change cycle of drought-flood was obvious, with periodic changes of 39, 72, 27 and over 100 years, and the change cycle of drought-flood at every time scale had been shortening since 1800. ③ The frequency of drought-flood disasters was different in space. The frequency of drought events in the upper reaches of Huaihe River was higher than that of flood. The frequency of flood events in Yishusi River, the middle reaches and lower reaches of Huaihe River was higher than that of drought. The frequency of drought-flood events in all regions was quite high, which was over 27%.
引文
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[2] IPCC.Climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability[R].Cambridge,UK:IPCC,2014.
[3] 张琨佳,杨帅,苏筠.明清时期我国水、旱灾害时空演变特点的对比分析[J].地球环境学报,2014,5(6):385-391.
[4] FENG Song,HU Qi,WU Qianru,et al.A gridded reconstruction of warm season precipitation for Asia spanning the past half millennium[J].Journal of climate,2013,26(7):2192-2204.
[5] 杨传国,陈喜,张润润,等.淮河流域近500年洪旱事件演变特征分析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(4):503-510.
[6] 葛全胜,郭熙凤,郑景云,等.1736年以来长江中下游梅雨变化[J].科学通报,2007,52(23):2792-2797.
[7] 竺可桢.中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究[J].中国科学(B辑),1973,3(2):169-189.
[8] 贾铁飞,施汶妤,郑辛酉,等.近600年来巢湖流域旱涝灾害研究[J].地理科学,2012,32(1):66-73.
[9] 徐新创,葛全胜,郑景云,等.湖北省近500年区域干湿序列重建及其比较分析[J].地理研究,2010,29(6):1045-1055.
[10] 王富强,李玉娟.基于AWTP的河南省干旱演变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(2):22-27.
[11] SHI Feng,ZHAO Sen,GUO Zhengtang,et al.Multi-proxy reconstructions of precipitation field in China over the past 500 years[J].Climate of the past discussions,2017,13:1-32.
[12] 彭友兵,徐影.过去530年中国东部旱涝事件模拟研究初探[J].第四纪研究,2009,29(6):1095-1103.
[13] WU Zhiwei,LI Jianping,HE Jinhai,et al.Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chinese science bulletin,2006,51(16):2027-2034.
[14] 王涛,霍彦峰,罗艳.近300年来天山中西部降水与太阳活动的小波分析[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):708-717.
[15] 杨志勇,袁喆,马静,等.近50年来淮河流域的旱涝演变特征[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):32-40.
[16] 谢五三,田红,王胜,等.基于CI指数的淮河流域干旱时空特征研究[J].气象,2013,39(9):1171-1175.
[17] 阮甜,高超,许莹,等.基于条件降水温度指数的淮河蚌埠闸以上流域冬小麦旱涝特征研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(3):38-45.
[18] 钟兆站,赵聚宝.河南省境内淮河流域历史时期旱涝等级序列的重建[J].灾害学,1994,9(3):67-71.
[19] GAO Chao,ZHANG Zhengtao,ZHAI Jianqing,et al.Research on meteorological thresholds of drought and flood disaster:a case study in the Huai River basin,China[J].Stochastic environmental research & risk assessment,2015,29(1):157-167.
[20] 中央气象局.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981:1-332.
[21] 张德二,刘传志.《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》续补(1980—1992年)[J].气象,1993,19(11):41-45.
[22] 张德二,李小泉,梁有叶.《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(1993—2000年)[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(3):379-384.
[23] 张德二.中国三千年气象记录总集[M].南京:凤凰出版社,2004:720-3646.
[24] 水利部淮河水利委员会,《淮河志》编篡委员会.淮河综述志[M].北京:科学出版社,2000:1-422.
[25] 温克刚,翟武全.中国气象灾害大典(安徽卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-382.
[26] 庞天荷.中国气象灾害大典(河南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:1-398.
[27] 温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(江苏卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:1-249.
[28] 温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(山东卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:1-648.
[29] 尉英华.东部地区过去、现在及未来旱涝变化特征分析与预测[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2007.
[30] THIESSEN A H.Precipitation averages for large areas [J].Monthly weather review,1911,39(7):1082-1089.
[31] 万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):27-38.
[32] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-296.
[33] 杨志勇,袁喆,严登华,等.黄淮海流域旱涝时空分布及组合特性[J].水科学进展,2013,24(5):617-625.
[34] 李茜,魏凤英,李栋梁.近千年东亚夏季风演变[J].古地理学报,2012,14(2):253-260.