Coastal sea level variability in the Bohai Bay: influence of atmospheric forcing and prediction
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摘要
The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are dif ferent in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay.Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations(E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass(<0.8 cpd) sea levels(SLSLs)at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind; in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind(SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model.
The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are dif ferent in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay.Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations(E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass(<0.8 cpd) sea levels(SLSLs)at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind; in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind(SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model.
The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are dif ferent in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay.Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations(E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass(<0.8 cpd) sea levels(SLSLs)at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind; in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind(SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model.
引文
Andres M,Gawarkiewicz G G,Toole J M.2013.Interannual sea level variability in the western North Atlantic:regional forcing and remote response.Geophysical Research Letters,40(22):5 915-5 919,https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058013.
Cao A Z,Guo Z,LüX Q.2012.Inversion of two-dimensional tidal open boundary conditions of M 2 constituent in the Bohai and Yellow Seas.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,30(5):868-875,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-012-1185-9.
Carrere L,Faugère Y,Ablain M.2016.Major improvement of altimetry sea level estimations using pressure-derived corrections based on ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis.Ocean Science,12(3):825-842.
Carrère L,Lyard F.2003.Modeling the barotropic response of the global ocean to atmospheric wind and pressure forcing‐comparisons with observations.Geophysical Research Letters,30(6):1275.
Castro B M,Lee T N.1995.Wind‐forced sea level variability on the southeast Brazilian shelf.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,100(C8):16 045-16 056,https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc01499.
Chen X Y,Zhang X B,Church J A,Watson C S,King M A,Monselesan D,Legresy B,Harig C.2017.The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993-2014.Nature Climate Change,7(7):492-497,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325.
Cheng Y C,Andersen O B.2011.Multimission empirical ocean tide modeling for shallow waters and polar seas.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,116(C11):C11001,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007172.
Egbert G D,Erofeeva S Y.2002.E cient inverse modeling of barotropic ocean tides.Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,19(2):183-204,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:eimobo>2.0.co;2.
Garrett C.2001.What is the“near-inertial”band and why is it dif ferent from the rest of the internal wave spectrum?Journal of Physical Oceanography,31(4):962-971,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<0962:witni b>2.0.co;2.
Grinsted A,Moore J C,Jevrejeva S.2004.Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series.Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,11(5-6):561-566,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-561-2004.
He Y J,Lu X Q,Qiu Z F,Zhao J P.2004.Shallow water tidal constituents in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea from a numerical adjoint model with TOPEX/POSEIDONaltimeter data.Continental Shelf Research,24(13-14):1 521-1 529,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.05.008.
Hsueh Y,Romea R D.1983.Wintertime winds and coastal sealevelfluctuations in the northeast China Sea.Part I:observations.Journal of Physical Oceanography,13(11):2 091-2 106,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1983)013<2091:wwacsl>2.0.co;2.
Kurapov A L,Erofeeva S Y,Myers E.2017.Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System(WCOFS).Ocean Dynamics,67(1):23-36,https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-1013-4.
Le Provost C,Lyard F,Molines J M,Genco M L,Rabilloud F.1998.A hydrodynamic ocean tide model improved by assimilating a satellite altimeter‐derived data set.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,103(C3):5 513-5 529,https://doi.org/10.1029/97jc01733.
Li K P,Yang K Q.1983.The non-periodic sea level variation in relation to wind and pressure at the Bohai Bay.Marine Sciences,(2):12-15.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Liu K X,Wang H,Fu S J,Gao Z G,Dong J X,Feng J L,Gao T.2017.Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses.Advances in Climate Change Research,8(1):48-56,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.03.006.
Matsumoto K,Takanezawa T,Ooe M.2000.Ocean tide models developed by assimilating TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data into hydrodynamical model:a global model and a regional model around Japan.Journal of Oceanography,56(5):567-581,https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011157212596.
Mellor G L,Ezer T.1995.Sea level variations induced by heating and cooling:an evaluation of the Boussinesq approximation in ocean models.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,100(C10):20 565-20 577,https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc02442.
Meng W,Qin Y W,Zheng B H,Zhang L.2008.Heavy metal pollution in Tianjin Bohai bay,China.Journal of Environmental Sciences,20(7):814-819,https://doi.org/10.1016/s1001-0742(08)62131-2.
Paraso M C,Valle-Levinson A.1996.Meteorological influences on sea level and water temperature in the lower Chesapeake bay:1992.Estuaries,19(3):548-561,https://doi.org/10.2307/1352517.
Piecuch C G,Dangendorf S,Ponte R M,Marcos M.2016.Annual sea level changes on the North American Northeast Coast:influence of local winds and barotropic motions.Journal of Climate,29(13):4 801-4 816,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0048.1.
Quartly G D,Legeais J F,Ablain M,Zawadzki L,Fernandes MJ,Rudenko S,Carrère L,García P N,Cipollini P,Andersen O B,Poisson J C,Njiche S M,Cazenave A,Benveniste J.2017.A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data.Earth System Science Data,9(2):557-572.
Sandstrom H.1980.On the wind‐induced sea level changes on the Scotian shelf.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,85(C1):461-468,https://doi.org/10.1029/jc085ic01p00461.
Shum C K,Woodworth P L,Andersen O B,Egbert G D,Francis O,King C,Klosko S M,Le Provost C,Li X,Molines J M,Parke M E,Ray R D,Schlax M G,Stammer D,Tierney C C,Vincent P,Wunsch C I.1997.Accuracy assessment of recent ocean tide models.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,102(C11):25 173-25 194,https://doi.org/10.1029/97jc00445.
Sun P,Yu G,Chen Z Z,Hu J Y,Liu G X,Xu D H.2015.Diagnostic model construction and example analysis of habitat degradation in enclosed bay:III.Sansha Bay habitat restoration strategy.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,33(2):477-489,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-015-4169-8.
Thompson P R,Merrifield M A,Wells J R,Chang C M.2014.Wind-driven coastal sea level variability in the northeast pacific.Journal of Climate,27(12):4 733-4 751,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00225.1.
Wang Y H,Fang G H,Wei Z X,Wang Y G,Wang X Y.2010.Accuracy assessment of global ocean tide models base on satellite altimetry.Advances in Earth Science,25(4):353-359.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Xu Z H,Yin B S,Hou Y J,Xu Y S.2013.Variability of internal tides and near‐inertial waves on the continental slope of the northwestern South China Sea.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,118(1):197-211,https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jc008212.
Zhang A J,Hess K W,Wei E,Myers E.2006.Implementation of Model Skill Assessment Software for Water Level and Current in Tidal Regions.NOAA Technical Report NOSCS 24.NOAA,Silver Spring,MD.(2006-03).https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/2204.Accessed on2018-6-21.
Zhang J C,Lu X Q.2010.Inversion of three-dimensional tidal currents in marginal seas by assimilating satellite altimetry.Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering,199(49-52):3 125-3 136,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2010.06.014.
Zhao B R,Cao D M.1987.Wintertime low frequencyfluctuations of Chinese coastal sea-level in the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea.Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica,18(6):563-574.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Cao A Z,Guo Z,LüX Q.2012.Inversion of two-dimensional tidal open boundary conditions of M 2 constituent in the Bohai and Yellow Seas.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,30(5):868-875,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-012-1185-9.
Carrere L,Faugère Y,Ablain M.2016.Major improvement of altimetry sea level estimations using pressure-derived corrections based on ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis.Ocean Science,12(3):825-842.
Carrère L,Lyard F.2003.Modeling the barotropic response of the global ocean to atmospheric wind and pressure forcing‐comparisons with observations.Geophysical Research Letters,30(6):1275.
Castro B M,Lee T N.1995.Wind‐forced sea level variability on the southeast Brazilian shelf.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,100(C8):16 045-16 056,https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc01499.
Chen X Y,Zhang X B,Church J A,Watson C S,King M A,Monselesan D,Legresy B,Harig C.2017.The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993-2014.Nature Climate Change,7(7):492-497,https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325.
Cheng Y C,Andersen O B.2011.Multimission empirical ocean tide modeling for shallow waters and polar seas.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,116(C11):C11001,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007172.
Egbert G D,Erofeeva S Y.2002.E cient inverse modeling of barotropic ocean tides.Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,19(2):183-204,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:eimobo>2.0.co;2.
Garrett C.2001.What is the“near-inertial”band and why is it dif ferent from the rest of the internal wave spectrum?Journal of Physical Oceanography,31(4):962-971,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2001)031<0962:witni b>2.0.co;2.
Grinsted A,Moore J C,Jevrejeva S.2004.Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series.Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,11(5-6):561-566,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-561-2004.
He Y J,Lu X Q,Qiu Z F,Zhao J P.2004.Shallow water tidal constituents in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea from a numerical adjoint model with TOPEX/POSEIDONaltimeter data.Continental Shelf Research,24(13-14):1 521-1 529,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.05.008.
Hsueh Y,Romea R D.1983.Wintertime winds and coastal sealevelfluctuations in the northeast China Sea.Part I:observations.Journal of Physical Oceanography,13(11):2 091-2 106,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1983)013<2091:wwacsl>2.0.co;2.
Kurapov A L,Erofeeva S Y,Myers E.2017.Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System(WCOFS).Ocean Dynamics,67(1):23-36,https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-1013-4.
Le Provost C,Lyard F,Molines J M,Genco M L,Rabilloud F.1998.A hydrodynamic ocean tide model improved by assimilating a satellite altimeter‐derived data set.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,103(C3):5 513-5 529,https://doi.org/10.1029/97jc01733.
Li K P,Yang K Q.1983.The non-periodic sea level variation in relation to wind and pressure at the Bohai Bay.Marine Sciences,(2):12-15.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Liu K X,Wang H,Fu S J,Gao Z G,Dong J X,Feng J L,Gao T.2017.Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses.Advances in Climate Change Research,8(1):48-56,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.03.006.
Matsumoto K,Takanezawa T,Ooe M.2000.Ocean tide models developed by assimilating TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data into hydrodynamical model:a global model and a regional model around Japan.Journal of Oceanography,56(5):567-581,https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011157212596.
Mellor G L,Ezer T.1995.Sea level variations induced by heating and cooling:an evaluation of the Boussinesq approximation in ocean models.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,100(C10):20 565-20 577,https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc02442.
Meng W,Qin Y W,Zheng B H,Zhang L.2008.Heavy metal pollution in Tianjin Bohai bay,China.Journal of Environmental Sciences,20(7):814-819,https://doi.org/10.1016/s1001-0742(08)62131-2.
Paraso M C,Valle-Levinson A.1996.Meteorological influences on sea level and water temperature in the lower Chesapeake bay:1992.Estuaries,19(3):548-561,https://doi.org/10.2307/1352517.
Piecuch C G,Dangendorf S,Ponte R M,Marcos M.2016.Annual sea level changes on the North American Northeast Coast:influence of local winds and barotropic motions.Journal of Climate,29(13):4 801-4 816,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0048.1.
Quartly G D,Legeais J F,Ablain M,Zawadzki L,Fernandes MJ,Rudenko S,Carrère L,García P N,Cipollini P,Andersen O B,Poisson J C,Njiche S M,Cazenave A,Benveniste J.2017.A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data.Earth System Science Data,9(2):557-572.
Sandstrom H.1980.On the wind‐induced sea level changes on the Scotian shelf.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,85(C1):461-468,https://doi.org/10.1029/jc085ic01p00461.
Shum C K,Woodworth P L,Andersen O B,Egbert G D,Francis O,King C,Klosko S M,Le Provost C,Li X,Molines J M,Parke M E,Ray R D,Schlax M G,Stammer D,Tierney C C,Vincent P,Wunsch C I.1997.Accuracy assessment of recent ocean tide models.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,102(C11):25 173-25 194,https://doi.org/10.1029/97jc00445.
Sun P,Yu G,Chen Z Z,Hu J Y,Liu G X,Xu D H.2015.Diagnostic model construction and example analysis of habitat degradation in enclosed bay:III.Sansha Bay habitat restoration strategy.Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,33(2):477-489,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-015-4169-8.
Thompson P R,Merrifield M A,Wells J R,Chang C M.2014.Wind-driven coastal sea level variability in the northeast pacific.Journal of Climate,27(12):4 733-4 751,https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00225.1.
Wang Y H,Fang G H,Wei Z X,Wang Y G,Wang X Y.2010.Accuracy assessment of global ocean tide models base on satellite altimetry.Advances in Earth Science,25(4):353-359.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Xu Z H,Yin B S,Hou Y J,Xu Y S.2013.Variability of internal tides and near‐inertial waves on the continental slope of the northwestern South China Sea.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,118(1):197-211,https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jc008212.
Zhang A J,Hess K W,Wei E,Myers E.2006.Implementation of Model Skill Assessment Software for Water Level and Current in Tidal Regions.NOAA Technical Report NOSCS 24.NOAA,Silver Spring,MD.(2006-03).https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/2204.Accessed on2018-6-21.
Zhang J C,Lu X Q.2010.Inversion of three-dimensional tidal currents in marginal seas by assimilating satellite altimetry.Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering,199(49-52):3 125-3 136,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2010.06.014.
Zhao B R,Cao D M.1987.Wintertime low frequencyfluctuations of Chinese coastal sea-level in the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea.Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica,18(6):563-574.(in Chinese with English abstract)