产能过剩的认识盲区及再诊断
摘要
产能过剩问题是西方主流经济学的盲区。国内讨论过剩产能思路的矛盾,反映四种不同的市场概念,包括新古典经济学模型构造的完美市场、现实存在的自发市场、规范市场和国际垄断市场。对国内过剩产能原因的认识,不能无视国际大宗商品价格大幅变动对国内市场的冲击,以及国际分工下大公司的市场份额竞争。市场经济必然存在规模经济和技术代谢,由此产生的产能过剩是"创造性毁灭"的代价。企业和政府应对不同产业不同生命周期的过剩产能,不同的战略和对策会产生完全不同的后果。中国社会主义混合经济的社会统筹能力,在应对全球性规模竞争和过剩产能上,比西方有更大的优越性。
The issue of excess capacity is a blind spot in mainstream Western economics.The contradictions in domestic discussions on excess capacity reflect four different market concepts:the perfect market constructed by neoclassical economic models,the spontaneous market that exists in the real world,the standard market and the international monopoly market.To gain a better understanding of the reasons for excess capacity in China,some factors cannot be ignored,such as the impact of the substantial changes in major international commodity prices and the market share competition between large companies under international division of labor.Economies of scale and technological renewal in the market economy are the causes of excess capacity,which is the cost of "creative destruction."Enterprises and governments have different strategies in dealing with different life-cycles of excess capacity in diverse industries,and the consequences also vary.With its strong capability of social coordination,Chinas socialist mixed economy has advantages over Western economies in terms of coping with international scale competition and excess capacity.
The issue of excess capacity is a blind spot in mainstream Western economics.The contradictions in domestic discussions on excess capacity reflect four different market concepts:the perfect market constructed by neoclassical economic models,the spontaneous market that exists in the real world,the standard market and the international monopoly market.To gain a better understanding of the reasons for excess capacity in China,some factors cannot be ignored,such as the impact of the substantial changes in major international commodity prices and the market share competition between large companies under international division of labor.Economies of scale and technological renewal in the market economy are the causes of excess capacity,which is the cost of "creative destruction."Enterprises and governments have different strategies in dealing with different life-cycles of excess capacity in diverse industries,and the consequences also vary.With its strong capability of social coordination,Chinas socialist mixed economy has advantages over Western economies in terms of coping with international scale competition and excess capacity.
引文
(1)(3)纪志宏:《我国产能过剩风险和治理》,《新金融评论》2015年第1期。
(2)美联储的数据均来自圣路易斯分行的数据库(以下简称“美联储数据库”),https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories.
(1)Ping Chen,"Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory:The Principle of Large Numbers vs.Rational Expectations Arbitrage,"Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,vol.49,no.3,2002,pp.327-344.
(2)参见数据库:http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/margin.xls.
(1)盛洪:《供给侧结构性改革应该改什么》,2016年3月10日,http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001066554.
(2)Ping Chen,"Complexity of Transaction Costs and Evolution of Corporate Governance,"Kyoto Economic Review,vol.76,no.2,2007,pp.139-153.
(3)哈尔·R.范里安:《微观经济学:现代观点》(第9版),费方域等译,上海:格致出版社,2011年。
(4)G.Debreu,Theory of Value:An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium,New Haven and London:Yale University Press,1959.
(1)陈平:《科斯问题和普里戈金视角:来自工业和科学的实践经验》,《学术界》2014年第1期。
(2)G.Becker,"A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social Influences on Price,"Journal of Political Economy,vol.99,no.5,1991,pp.1109-1116.
(3)唐毅南、陈平:《S形需求曲线的动态起源:消费者社会相互作用下时尚商品的群体模型》,《经济学(季刊)》2009年第3期。
(1)Joseph E.Stiglitz,"The Efficiency Wage Hypothesis,Surplus Labor,and the Distribution of Income in L.D.C.s,"Oxford Economic Papers,vol.28,no.2,1976,pp.185-207.
(2)Maryke Dessing,"Labor Supply,the Family and Poverty:The S-Shaped Labor Supply Curve,"Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,vol.49,no.4,2002,pp.433-458.
(3)Friedrich Schneider,"The Shadow Economy and Work in the Shadow:What Do We(not)Know?"Johannes Kepler University of Linz and IZA,Discussion Paper,no.6423,March 2012.
(1)孟捷、向悦文:《克罗蒂和布伦纳的破坏性竞争理论比较研究》,《经济纵横》2013年第5期。
(2)哈耶克:《通往奴役之路》,王明毅等译,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1997年。
(3)P.Krugman,"How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?"The New York Times,September 2,2009.
(4)参见吴易风:《西方“重新发现”马克思述评》,《中国社会科学内部文稿》2014年第1期。
(1)R.Frisch,"Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics,"in Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel,London:George Allen&Unwin,1933.
(2)陈平:《经济周期理论的弗里希模型之谜:均衡经济学和永动机模型》,《政治经济学报》2015年第4卷。
(3)Milton Friedman,The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays,Chicago:Aldine Publishing Co.,1969.
(4)Milton Friedman,Money Mischief,New York:Harcourt Brace Jovanovich,1992.
(5)Robert E.Lucas,Jr.,Studies in Business-Cycle Theory,Cambridge:The MIT Press,1981.
(6)P.Krugman,"A Dark Age of Macroeconomics(Wonkish),"New York Times,January 27,2009.http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/a-dark-age-of-macroeconomics-wonkish/.
(7)参见约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯:《就业、利息和货币通论》,高鸿业译,北京:商务印书馆,2005年。
(8)John M.Keynes,How to Pay for the War?London:Macmillan,1940.
(1)J.R.Hicks,"Mr.Keynes and theClassics;A Suggested Interpretation,"Econometrica,vol.5,no.2,1937,pp.147-159.
(2)约瑟夫·熊彼特:《经济周期循环论》,叶华译,北京:中国长安出版社,2009年。
(3)弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克:《货币的非国家化》,姚中秋译,北京:新星出版社,2007年。
(4)林毅夫:《新结构经济学》,北京:北京大学出版社,2012年。
(1)S.Johnson,"The Quiet Coup,"The Atlantic,vol.303,no.4,2009,pp.46-56.
(2)Ping Chen,"Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory:The Principle of Large Numbers vs.Rational Expectations Arbitrage,"pp.327-344.
(3)Ping Chen,"Metabolic Growth Theory:Market-Share Competition,Learning Uncertainty,and Technology Wavelets,"Journal of Evolutionary Economics,vol.24,no.2,2014,pp.239-262.
(4)Ping Chen,"Mathematical Representation in Economics and Finance:Philosophical Preference,Mathematical Simplicity,and Empirical Relevance,"in Emiliano Ippoliti and Ping Chen,eds.,Finance,Mathematics and Philosophy,Berlin:Springer,2016.
(1)埃尔温·薛定谔:《生命是什么》,罗来欧、罗辽复译,北京:商务印书馆,2014年。
(2)Ping Chen,"Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory:The Principle of Large Numbers vs.Rational Expectations Arbitrage,"pp.327-344.
(1)R.M.Solow,"Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function,"The Review of Economics and Statistics,vol.39,no.3,1957,pp.312-320.
(2)Paul M.Romer,"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"The Journal of Political Economy,vol.94,1986,pp.1002-1038.
(1)吴敬琏:《中国增长模式抉择》,上海:上海远东出版社,2013年。
(2)Steven N.S.Cheung,"The Transaction Costs Paradigm,"Economic Inquiry,vol.36,no.4,1998,pp.514-521.
(1)陈平:《新古典经济学在中国转型实验中的作用有限》,《经济研究》2006年第10期。
(1)史正富:《超常增长》,上海:上海人民出版社,2013年。
(1)James Fallows,"The$1.4Trillion Question,"The Atlantic Monthly,January/February 2008.
(2)美联储的数据均来自圣路易斯分行的数据库(以下简称“美联储数据库”),https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories.
(1)Ping Chen,"Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory:The Principle of Large Numbers vs.Rational Expectations Arbitrage,"Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,vol.49,no.3,2002,pp.327-344.
(2)参见数据库:http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/margin.xls.
(1)盛洪:《供给侧结构性改革应该改什么》,2016年3月10日,http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001066554.
(2)Ping Chen,"Complexity of Transaction Costs and Evolution of Corporate Governance,"Kyoto Economic Review,vol.76,no.2,2007,pp.139-153.
(3)哈尔·R.范里安:《微观经济学:现代观点》(第9版),费方域等译,上海:格致出版社,2011年。
(4)G.Debreu,Theory of Value:An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium,New Haven and London:Yale University Press,1959.
(1)陈平:《科斯问题和普里戈金视角:来自工业和科学的实践经验》,《学术界》2014年第1期。
(2)G.Becker,"A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social Influences on Price,"Journal of Political Economy,vol.99,no.5,1991,pp.1109-1116.
(3)唐毅南、陈平:《S形需求曲线的动态起源:消费者社会相互作用下时尚商品的群体模型》,《经济学(季刊)》2009年第3期。
(1)Joseph E.Stiglitz,"The Efficiency Wage Hypothesis,Surplus Labor,and the Distribution of Income in L.D.C.s,"Oxford Economic Papers,vol.28,no.2,1976,pp.185-207.
(2)Maryke Dessing,"Labor Supply,the Family and Poverty:The S-Shaped Labor Supply Curve,"Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,vol.49,no.4,2002,pp.433-458.
(3)Friedrich Schneider,"The Shadow Economy and Work in the Shadow:What Do We(not)Know?"Johannes Kepler University of Linz and IZA,Discussion Paper,no.6423,March 2012.
(1)孟捷、向悦文:《克罗蒂和布伦纳的破坏性竞争理论比较研究》,《经济纵横》2013年第5期。
(2)哈耶克:《通往奴役之路》,王明毅等译,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1997年。
(3)P.Krugman,"How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?"The New York Times,September 2,2009.
(4)参见吴易风:《西方“重新发现”马克思述评》,《中国社会科学内部文稿》2014年第1期。
(1)R.Frisch,"Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics,"in Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel,London:George Allen&Unwin,1933.
(2)陈平:《经济周期理论的弗里希模型之谜:均衡经济学和永动机模型》,《政治经济学报》2015年第4卷。
(3)Milton Friedman,The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays,Chicago:Aldine Publishing Co.,1969.
(4)Milton Friedman,Money Mischief,New York:Harcourt Brace Jovanovich,1992.
(5)Robert E.Lucas,Jr.,Studies in Business-Cycle Theory,Cambridge:The MIT Press,1981.
(6)P.Krugman,"A Dark Age of Macroeconomics(Wonkish),"New York Times,January 27,2009.http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/a-dark-age-of-macroeconomics-wonkish/.
(7)参见约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯:《就业、利息和货币通论》,高鸿业译,北京:商务印书馆,2005年。
(8)John M.Keynes,How to Pay for the War?London:Macmillan,1940.
(1)J.R.Hicks,"Mr.Keynes and theClassics;A Suggested Interpretation,"Econometrica,vol.5,no.2,1937,pp.147-159.
(2)约瑟夫·熊彼特:《经济周期循环论》,叶华译,北京:中国长安出版社,2009年。
(3)弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克:《货币的非国家化》,姚中秋译,北京:新星出版社,2007年。
(4)林毅夫:《新结构经济学》,北京:北京大学出版社,2012年。
(1)S.Johnson,"The Quiet Coup,"The Atlantic,vol.303,no.4,2009,pp.46-56.
(2)Ping Chen,"Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory:The Principle of Large Numbers vs.Rational Expectations Arbitrage,"pp.327-344.
(3)Ping Chen,"Metabolic Growth Theory:Market-Share Competition,Learning Uncertainty,and Technology Wavelets,"Journal of Evolutionary Economics,vol.24,no.2,2014,pp.239-262.
(4)Ping Chen,"Mathematical Representation in Economics and Finance:Philosophical Preference,Mathematical Simplicity,and Empirical Relevance,"in Emiliano Ippoliti and Ping Chen,eds.,Finance,Mathematics and Philosophy,Berlin:Springer,2016.
(1)埃尔温·薛定谔:《生命是什么》,罗来欧、罗辽复译,北京:商务印书馆,2014年。
(2)Ping Chen,"Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory:The Principle of Large Numbers vs.Rational Expectations Arbitrage,"pp.327-344.
(1)R.M.Solow,"Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function,"The Review of Economics and Statistics,vol.39,no.3,1957,pp.312-320.
(2)Paul M.Romer,"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"The Journal of Political Economy,vol.94,1986,pp.1002-1038.
(1)吴敬琏:《中国增长模式抉择》,上海:上海远东出版社,2013年。
(2)Steven N.S.Cheung,"The Transaction Costs Paradigm,"Economic Inquiry,vol.36,no.4,1998,pp.514-521.
(1)陈平:《新古典经济学在中国转型实验中的作用有限》,《经济研究》2006年第10期。
(1)史正富:《超常增长》,上海:上海人民出版社,2013年。
(1)James Fallows,"The$1.4Trillion Question,"The Atlantic Monthly,January/February 2008.