巴音布鲁克近58a气候变化特征分析
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摘要
对巴音布鲁克站点1958—2015年的月降水量、降水日数和平均气温进行集合经验模态分解得到其变化趋势,利用Mann-Kendall和累计距平法诊断突变点,并采用Morlet小波和R/S法分析其周期特征和未来变化趋势。结果显示:(1)巴音布鲁克各月降水量1月、6月和11月增多趋势显著,2月、7月和12月呈"凸"字形变化,减少趋势显著。(2)降水日数1月和9月呈显著减少趋势,2月和6月呈显著增加趋势,3月和11月呈"凸"字形变化,5月、7月和8月呈不同幅度的"凹"字形变化。(3)各月平均气温基本呈上升趋势,尤其以5月、7月和10月升温最显著。(4)年降水量、年降水日数和年平均气温分别在1999年、1993年和1997年发生突变,年降水日数增多早于年降水量增多和年平均气温升高的时间,从90年代中期开始气候由干冷逐渐向暖湿转型。(5)年降水量、年降水日数和年平均气温的主周期分别为41 a、9 a和30 a。(6)未来年降水量将增多,年降水日数将减少,年平均气温将升高,极端降水发生的频次将增大,易引发洪涝灾害。
Temperature and precipitation are the most basic meteorological elements.Recently,the northwest China is very sensitive to the climate change.Bayinbuluk grassland in Hejing County,Xinjiang,China has a unique alpine climate with a more pronounced response to climate change.Therefore,more and more meteorologists are attracted to study the trends of local temperature and precipitation.By using EEMD,the characteristics of precipitation,precipitation days and annual average temperature were analyzed based on long-term(from 1958 to 2015) monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from Bayinbuluk Meteorological Station.The Mann-Kendall and cumulative anomaly analysis methods were used to diagnose the mutation points.Meanwhile,based on Morlet wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis method,the periodic characteristics and long memory property were analyzed.It is found that the monthly precipitation in Bayinbuluk was increased significantly in January,June and November,and the changes in February,July and December displayed a "convex" shape.The monthly precipitation days showed a significant downward trend in January and September,with a significant increase in February and June,and a "convex" change in March and November,a "concave" change shape in May,July and August.The average temperature in each month was basically on rise,especially in May,July and October.There were big changes for the annual precipitation and annual precipitation days in 1999 and 1993,and big change for the annual mean air temperature occurred in 1997.In addition,the increase of the annual precipitation days happened earlier than the increase of the annual precipitation and the increase of the annual average temperature.Since the mid-1990 s,Bayinbuluk's climate has shifted from dry and cold to warm and humid.The periodic oscillation of annual precipitation,annual precipitation days and annual average temperature were 41 a,9 a and 30 a,respectively.Meanwhile,the Hurst exponents were obtained,which indicated that in the future annual precipitation and annual average temperature would be increased but annual precipitation days would be decreased.The frequency of extreme precipitation will be increased,which will easily lead to flood disasters.
Temperature and precipitation are the most basic meteorological elements.Recently,the northwest China is very sensitive to the climate change.Bayinbuluk grassland in Hejing County,Xinjiang,China has a unique alpine climate with a more pronounced response to climate change.Therefore,more and more meteorologists are attracted to study the trends of local temperature and precipitation.By using EEMD,the characteristics of precipitation,precipitation days and annual average temperature were analyzed based on long-term(from 1958 to 2015) monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from Bayinbuluk Meteorological Station.The Mann-Kendall and cumulative anomaly analysis methods were used to diagnose the mutation points.Meanwhile,based on Morlet wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis method,the periodic characteristics and long memory property were analyzed.It is found that the monthly precipitation in Bayinbuluk was increased significantly in January,June and November,and the changes in February,July and December displayed a "convex" shape.The monthly precipitation days showed a significant downward trend in January and September,with a significant increase in February and June,and a "convex" change in March and November,a "concave" change shape in May,July and August.The average temperature in each month was basically on rise,especially in May,July and October.There were big changes for the annual precipitation and annual precipitation days in 1999 and 1993,and big change for the annual mean air temperature occurred in 1997.In addition,the increase of the annual precipitation days happened earlier than the increase of the annual precipitation and the increase of the annual average temperature.Since the mid-1990 s,Bayinbuluk's climate has shifted from dry and cold to warm and humid.The periodic oscillation of annual precipitation,annual precipitation days and annual average temperature were 41 a,9 a and 30 a,respectively.Meanwhile,the Hurst exponents were obtained,which indicated that in the future annual precipitation and annual average temperature would be increased but annual precipitation days would be decreased.The frequency of extreme precipitation will be increased,which will easily lead to flood disasters.
引文
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[11] 王晓莹,杨丹,邵银龙.南京市近60年气候变化特征分析[J/OL].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(4):119-124.[WANG Xiaoying,YANG Dan,SHAO Yinlong.Analysis on climatic variation characteristics of Nanjing City during the past 60 years[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(4):119-124.]
[12] DONG L Q,ZHANG G X,XU Y J.Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Nenjiang River Basin,northeast China[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2012,9:11521-11549.
[13] 任小玢,董治宝,周正朝.近50年来四川盆地降水日数的时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(4):65-70.[REN Xiaobin,DONG Zhibao,ZHOU Zhengchao.Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation days of Sichuan Basin in nearly 50 years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(4):65-70.]
[14] GUAN B T.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition for analyzing phonological responses to warming[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2014,194:1-7.
[15] RIVERA J A.PENALBA O C.Trends and spatial patterns of dro-ught affected area in southern South America[J].Climate,2014,2:264-278.
[16] CNOSSEN I,FRANZKE C.The role of the Sun in long-term change in the F2 peak ionosphere:New insights from EEMD and numerical modeling[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Space Physics,2014,119(10):8610-8623.
[17] QIAN C.On trend estimation and significance testing for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data:Quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in hot extremes in the megacity of Shanghai[J].Climate Dynamics,2016,47(1/2):329-344.
[18] 吴燕锋,巴特尔·巴克,李维,等.基于EEMD的杜尚别市1950—2013年降水多尺度分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,6:152-157.[WU Yanfeng,BAKE Batur,LI Wei,et al.Multi-scale fluctuation of precipitation in Dushanbe revealed by EEMD analysis[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,6:152-157.]
[19] 任妍,赵巧华,刘濛濛.基于EEMD的新疆1971—2013年初、终霜日及霜期变化趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):133-138.[REN Yan,ZHAO Qiaohua,LIU Mengmeng.Regional features of the first frost dates,last frost dates and frosty variation trends over Xinjiang from 1971 to 2013[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(7):133-138.]
[20] FRANZKE C L E.Warming trends:Nonlinear climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(6):423-424.
[21] 潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬,等.基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):41-45,50.[PAN Guoying,QIN Yongtai,MA Yafen,et al.Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe River Basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2015,26(3):41-45,50.]
[22] 叶茂,张鹏,王炜,等.塔里木河流域上游三源流径流变化趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2010,21(5):10-14.[YE Mao,ZHANG Peng,WANG Wei,et al.Trend analysis of runoff variation in upper reaches of Tarim River Basin[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2010,21(5):10-14.]
[23] 谢培,顾艳玲,张玉虎,等.1961—2015年新疆降水及干旱特征分析 [J].干旱区地理,2017,40(2):322-339.[XIE Pei,GU Yanling,ZHANG Yuhu,et al.Precipitation and drought characteristic in Xinjiang during 1961—2015[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(2):322-339.]
[2] 胡汝骥,姜逢清,王亚俊,等.新疆气候由暖干向暖湿转变的信号及影响[J].干旱区地理,2002,25(3):194-200.[HU Ruji,JIANG Fengqing,WANG Yajun,et al.A study on signals and effects of climatic pattern change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xingjiang[J].Arid Land Geography,2002,25(3):194-200.]
[3] 施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.[SHI Yafeng,SHEN Yongping,LI Dongliang.et al.Discussion on the present climatic change from warm-dry to warm-wet in north-west China[J].Quatemary Sciences,2003,23(2):152-164.]
[4] 张家宝,史玉光.新疆气候变化及短期气候预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.[ZHANG Jiabao,SHI Yuguang.Climate change and short-term climate prediction research in Xingjiang[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2002.]
[5] 姚俊强,杨青,韩雪云,等.气候变化对天山山区高寒盆地水资源变化的影响——以巴音布鲁克盆地为例[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(6):1167-1173.[YAO Junqiang,YANG Qing,HAN Xueyun,et al.Impact of climate change on surface water resources in alpine basin in the Tianshan Mountains:A case study in the Bayinbuluk Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(6):1167-1173.]
[6] 吴烨,巩庆,黄向春,等.巴音布鲁克高寒区气象观测资料分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(4):48-53.[WU Ye,GONG Qing,HUANG Xiangchun,et al.The analysis of meteorological observation in the alpine areas on the middle Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2017,11(4):48-53.]
[7] 张一驰,李宝林,程维明,等.开都河流域径流对气候变化的响应研究[J].资源科学,2004,26(6):69-76.[ZHANG Yichi,LI Baolin,CHENG Weiming,et al.Hydrological response of runoff to climate variation in Kaidu Catchment[J].Resources Science,2004,26(6):69-76.]
[8] 陶辉,王国亚,邵春,等.开都河源区气候变化及径流响应 [J].冰川冻土,2007,29(3):413-417.[TAO Hui,WANG Guoya,SHAO Chun,et al.Climate change and its effects on runoff at the headwater of Kaidu River[J].Journal of Glacidogy and Geocryology,2007,29(3):413-417.]
[9] 王维霞,王秀君,姜逢清,等.开都河流域上下游过去50年气温降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):746-753.[WANG Weixia,WANG Xiujun,JIANG Fengqing,et al.Temperature and precipitation along the Kaidu River over the past 50 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(5):746-753.]
[10] 周雪英,段均泽,李晓川,等.1960—2011年巴音布鲁克山区降水变化趋势与突变特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(5):19-24.[ZHOU Xueying,DUAN Junze,LI Xiaochuan,et al.Tendency and abrupt change of the precipitation in Bayinbuluk Mountains during 1960—2011[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2013,7(5):19-24.]
[11] 王晓莹,杨丹,邵银龙.南京市近60年气候变化特征分析[J/OL].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(4):119-124.[WANG Xiaoying,YANG Dan,SHAO Yinlong.Analysis on climatic variation characteristics of Nanjing City during the past 60 years[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(4):119-124.]
[12] DONG L Q,ZHANG G X,XU Y J.Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Nenjiang River Basin,northeast China[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2012,9:11521-11549.
[13] 任小玢,董治宝,周正朝.近50年来四川盆地降水日数的时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(4):65-70.[REN Xiaobin,DONG Zhibao,ZHOU Zhengchao.Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation days of Sichuan Basin in nearly 50 years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(4):65-70.]
[14] GUAN B T.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition for analyzing phonological responses to warming[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2014,194:1-7.
[15] RIVERA J A.PENALBA O C.Trends and spatial patterns of dro-ught affected area in southern South America[J].Climate,2014,2:264-278.
[16] CNOSSEN I,FRANZKE C.The role of the Sun in long-term change in the F2 peak ionosphere:New insights from EEMD and numerical modeling[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Space Physics,2014,119(10):8610-8623.
[17] QIAN C.On trend estimation and significance testing for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data:Quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in hot extremes in the megacity of Shanghai[J].Climate Dynamics,2016,47(1/2):329-344.
[18] 吴燕锋,巴特尔·巴克,李维,等.基于EEMD的杜尚别市1950—2013年降水多尺度分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,6:152-157.[WU Yanfeng,BAKE Batur,LI Wei,et al.Multi-scale fluctuation of precipitation in Dushanbe revealed by EEMD analysis[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,6:152-157.]
[19] 任妍,赵巧华,刘濛濛.基于EEMD的新疆1971—2013年初、终霜日及霜期变化趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):133-138.[REN Yan,ZHAO Qiaohua,LIU Mengmeng.Regional features of the first frost dates,last frost dates and frosty variation trends over Xinjiang from 1971 to 2013[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(7):133-138.]
[20] FRANZKE C L E.Warming trends:Nonlinear climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(6):423-424.
[21] 潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬,等.基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):41-45,50.[PAN Guoying,QIN Yongtai,MA Yafen,et al.Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe River Basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2015,26(3):41-45,50.]
[22] 叶茂,张鹏,王炜,等.塔里木河流域上游三源流径流变化趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2010,21(5):10-14.[YE Mao,ZHANG Peng,WANG Wei,et al.Trend analysis of runoff variation in upper reaches of Tarim River Basin[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2010,21(5):10-14.]
[23] 谢培,顾艳玲,张玉虎,等.1961—2015年新疆降水及干旱特征分析 [J].干旱区地理,2017,40(2):322-339.[XIE Pei,GU Yanling,ZHANG Yuhu,et al.Precipitation and drought characteristic in Xinjiang during 1961—2015[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(2):322-339.]