中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应（英文）
|
摘要
The 1998–2012 global warming hiatus has aroused great public interest over the past several years. Based on the air temperature measurements from 622 meteorological stations in China, the temperature response to the global warming hiatus was analyzed at national and regional scales. We found that air temperature changed –0.221℃/10 a during 1998–2012, which was lower than the long-term trend for 1960–1998 by 0.427℃/10 a. Therefore, the warming hiatus in China was more pronounced than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role in the nationwide warming hiatus, contributing 74.13%, while summer contributed the least among the four seasons. Furthermore, the warming hiatus was spatial heterogeneous across different climate conditions in China. Comparing the three geographic zones, the monsoon region of eastern China, arid region of northwestern China, and high frigid region of the Tibetan Plateau, there was significant cooling in eastern and northwestern China. In eastern China, which contributed 53.79%, the trend magnitudes were 0.896℃/10 a in winter and 0.134℃/10 a in summer. In the Tibetan Plateau, air temperature increased by 0.204℃/10 a, indicating a lack of a significant warming hiatus. More broadly, the warming hiatus in China may have been associated with the negative phase of PDO and reduction in sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. Finally, although a warming hiatus occurred in China from 1998 to 2012, air temperature rapidly increased after 2012 and will likely to continuously warm in the next few years.
The 1998–2012 global warming hiatus has aroused great public interest over the past several years. Based on the air temperature measurements from 622 meteorological stations in China, the temperature response to the global warming hiatus was analyzed at national and regional scales. We found that air temperature changed –0.221℃/10 a during 1998–2012, which was lower than the long-term trend for 1960–1998 by 0.427℃/10 a. Therefore, the warming hiatus in China was more pronounced than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role in the nationwide warming hiatus, contributing 74.13%, while summer contributed the least among the four seasons. Furthermore, the warming hiatus was spatial heterogeneous across different climate conditions in China. Comparing the three geographic zones, the monsoon region of eastern China, arid region of northwestern China, and high frigid region of the Tibetan Plateau, there was significant cooling in eastern and northwestern China. In eastern China, which contributed 53.79%, the trend magnitudes were 0.896℃/10 a in winter and 0.134℃/10 a in summer. In the Tibetan Plateau, air temperature increased by 0.204℃/10 a, indicating a lack of a significant warming hiatus. More broadly, the warming hiatus in China may have been associated with the negative phase of PDO and reduction in sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. Finally, although a warming hiatus occurred in China from 1998 to 2012, air temperature rapidly increased after 2012 and will likely to continuously warm in the next few years.
The 1998–2012 global warming hiatus has aroused great public interest over the past several years. Based on the air temperature measurements from 622 meteorological stations in China, the temperature response to the global warming hiatus was analyzed at national and regional scales. We found that air temperature changed –0.221℃/10 a during 1998–2012, which was lower than the long-term trend for 1960–1998 by 0.427℃/10 a. Therefore, the warming hiatus in China was more pronounced than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role in the nationwide warming hiatus, contributing 74.13%, while summer contributed the least among the four seasons. Furthermore, the warming hiatus was spatial heterogeneous across different climate conditions in China. Comparing the three geographic zones, the monsoon region of eastern China, arid region of northwestern China, and high frigid region of the Tibetan Plateau, there was significant cooling in eastern and northwestern China. In eastern China, which contributed 53.79%, the trend magnitudes were 0.896℃/10 a in winter and 0.134℃/10 a in summer. In the Tibetan Plateau, air temperature increased by 0.204℃/10 a, indicating a lack of a significant warming hiatus. More broadly, the warming hiatus in China may have been associated with the negative phase of PDO and reduction in sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. Finally, although a warming hiatus occurred in China from 1998 to 2012, air temperature rapidly increased after 2012 and will likely to continuously warm in the next few years.
引文
Carter B, 2006. There is a problem with global warming…it stopped in 1998. Telegraph Newspaper, 9.
Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C et al., 2010. Winter 2010 in Europe:A cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 37:L20704. doi:10.1029/2010GL044613.
Coddington O, Lean J L, Pilewskie P et al., 2016. A solar irradiance climate data record. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(7):1265–1282.
Cohen J, Barlow M, Saito K, 2009. Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming in late boreal winter. Journal of Climate, 22(16):4418–4426.
Cowtan K, Way R G, 2014. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140(683):1935–1944.
Dai A, Fyfe J C, Xie S P et al., 2015. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. Nature Climate Change, 5(6):555–559.
Deser C, Guo R, Lehner F, 2017. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmosphericinternalvariabilitytotherecentglobalwarminghiatus.GeophysicalResearchLetters,44(15):7945–7954.
Ding Y H, Ma X Q, 2007. Analysis of isentropic potential vorticity for a strong cold wave in 2004/2005 winter.Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 65(5):695–707.(in Chinese)
Douville H, Voldoire A, Geoffroy O, 2015. The recent global warming hiatus:What is the role of Pacific variability? Geophysical Research Letters, 42(3):880–888.
Duan A M, Xiao Z X, Wu G X, 2016. Characteristics of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau under the global warming during 1979–2014. Climate Change Research, 12(5):374–381.(in Chinese)
Friis-Christensen E, Lassen K, 1991. Length of the solar cycle:An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science, 254(5032):698–700.
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M et al., 2010. Global surface temperature change. Reviews of Geophysics, 48:RG4004.doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
Hassani H, Huang X, Gupta R et al., 2016. Does sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? A reconsideration using non-parametric causality tests. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 460:54–65.
Hong C, Li T, 2009. The extreme cold anomaly over Southeast Asia in February 2008:Roles of ISO and ENSO.Journal of Climate, 22(13):3786–3801.
Hoyt D V, Schatten K H, 1997. The Role of the Sun in Climate Change. New York:Oxford University Press.
Huang J, Zhang X, Zhang Q et al., 2017. Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend. Nature Climate Change, 7(12):875–879.
IPCC. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis, 2013. Contribution to Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press.
Jevrejeva S, Moore J C, Grinsted A, 2010. How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100? Geophysical Research Letters, 37:L07703. doi:10.1029/2010GL042947.
Jones P D, Hulme M, 1996. Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation:Methods and illustrations. International Journal of Climatology, 16(4):361–377.
Jones P D, Lister D H, Osborn T J et al., 2012. Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations:Anextensiverevisionandanupdateto2010.JournalofGeophysicalResearchAtmospheres,117:D05127. doi:10.1029/2011JD017139.
Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang B et al., 2015. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science, 348(6242):1469–1472.
Kerr R A, 2009. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science, 326(5949):28–29.
Knight J, Kenneby J, Folland C et al., 2009. Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(8):22–23.
KosakaY,XieSP,2013.Recentglobal-warminghiatustiedtoequatorialPacificsurfacecooling.Nature,501 (7467):403–407.
LeanJL,2010.Cyclesandtrendsinsolarirradianceandclimate.WileyInterdisciplinaryReviews:Climate change, 1(1):111–122.
Li J, Sun C, Jin F, 2013. NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(20):5497–5502.
Lin X P, Xu L X, Li J P et al., 2016. Research on the global warming hiatus. Advances in Earth Science, 31(10):995 –1000.(in Chinese)
Liu Chao, 2016. Study on influence of the PDO on sea level rise in the Pacific[D]. Qingdao:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.(in Chinese)
Medhaug I, Stolpe M B, Fischer E M et al., 2017. Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’.Nature, 545(7652):41–47.
Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T et al., 2011. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change, 1(7):360–364.
Qin D H, 2014. Climate change science and sustainable development. Progress in Geography, 33(7):874–883.(in Chinese)
RathodM,GuptaM,ShrivastavaAK,2017.Long-termvariationofsolarflareindicesinrelationtosunspot numbers from Solar Cycle 20 to 24. Journal of Pure Applied and Industrial Physics, 7(9):339–347.
Roberts C D, Palmer M D, McNeall D et al., 2015. Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming. Nature Climate Change, 5(4):337–342.
Schmidt G A, Shindell D T, Tsigaridis K, 2014. Reconciling warming trends. Nature Geoscience, 7(3):158–160.
Schneider N, Cornuelle B D, 2005. The forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 18(21):4355–4373.
Seager R, Kushnir Y, Nakamura J et al., 2010. Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies:ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10. Geophysical Research Letters, 37:L14703. doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.
Su J Z, Wen M, Ding Y H et al., 2016. Hiatus of global warming:A review. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 40(6):1143–1153.(in Chinese)
Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Branstator G et al., 2014. Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming.Nature Climate Change, 4(10):911–916.
Vinnikov K Y, Groisman P Y, Lugina K M, 1990. Empirical data on contemporary global climate changes(temperature and precipitation). Journal of Climate, 3(6):662–677.
WangSW,LuoY,ZhaoZCetal.,2014.Pauseforthought.AdvancesinClimateChangeResearch,10(4):303 –306.(in Chinese)
Wen M, Yang S, Kumar A et al., 2009. An analysis of the large-scale climate anomalies associated with the snowstorms affecting China in January 2008. Monthly Weather Review, 137(3):1111–1131.
Yan X H, Boyer T, Trenberth K et al., 2016. The global warming hiatus:Slowdown or redistribution? Earth’s Future, 4(11):472–482.
Yao S L, Huang G, Wu R G et al., 2016. The global warming hiatus:A natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 123(1/2):349–360.
Zhang Z Y, Gong D Y, Guo D et al., 2008. Anomalous winter temperature and precipitation events in southern China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 63(9):899–912.(in Chinese)
Zhao L, Ding R, Moore J C, 2016. The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to2050. Annals of Glaciology, 57(71):223–231.
Zhao S Q, 1983. A new scheme for comprehensive physical regionalization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,38 (1):1–10.(in Chinese)
Zhao Z C, Luo Y, Huang J B, 2016. Debate on global warming “hiatus”. Advances in Climate Change Research,12 (6):571–574.(in Chinese)
Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C et al., 2010. Winter 2010 in Europe:A cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 37:L20704. doi:10.1029/2010GL044613.
Coddington O, Lean J L, Pilewskie P et al., 2016. A solar irradiance climate data record. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(7):1265–1282.
Cohen J, Barlow M, Saito K, 2009. Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming in late boreal winter. Journal of Climate, 22(16):4418–4426.
Cowtan K, Way R G, 2014. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140(683):1935–1944.
Dai A, Fyfe J C, Xie S P et al., 2015. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. Nature Climate Change, 5(6):555–559.
Deser C, Guo R, Lehner F, 2017. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmosphericinternalvariabilitytotherecentglobalwarminghiatus.GeophysicalResearchLetters,44(15):7945–7954.
Ding Y H, Ma X Q, 2007. Analysis of isentropic potential vorticity for a strong cold wave in 2004/2005 winter.Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 65(5):695–707.(in Chinese)
Douville H, Voldoire A, Geoffroy O, 2015. The recent global warming hiatus:What is the role of Pacific variability? Geophysical Research Letters, 42(3):880–888.
Duan A M, Xiao Z X, Wu G X, 2016. Characteristics of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau under the global warming during 1979–2014. Climate Change Research, 12(5):374–381.(in Chinese)
Friis-Christensen E, Lassen K, 1991. Length of the solar cycle:An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science, 254(5032):698–700.
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M et al., 2010. Global surface temperature change. Reviews of Geophysics, 48:RG4004.doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
Hassani H, Huang X, Gupta R et al., 2016. Does sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? A reconsideration using non-parametric causality tests. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 460:54–65.
Hong C, Li T, 2009. The extreme cold anomaly over Southeast Asia in February 2008:Roles of ISO and ENSO.Journal of Climate, 22(13):3786–3801.
Hoyt D V, Schatten K H, 1997. The Role of the Sun in Climate Change. New York:Oxford University Press.
Huang J, Zhang X, Zhang Q et al., 2017. Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend. Nature Climate Change, 7(12):875–879.
IPCC. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis, 2013. Contribution to Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press.
Jevrejeva S, Moore J C, Grinsted A, 2010. How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100? Geophysical Research Letters, 37:L07703. doi:10.1029/2010GL042947.
Jones P D, Hulme M, 1996. Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation:Methods and illustrations. International Journal of Climatology, 16(4):361–377.
Jones P D, Lister D H, Osborn T J et al., 2012. Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations:Anextensiverevisionandanupdateto2010.JournalofGeophysicalResearchAtmospheres,117:D05127. doi:10.1029/2011JD017139.
Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang B et al., 2015. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science, 348(6242):1469–1472.
Kerr R A, 2009. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. Science, 326(5949):28–29.
Knight J, Kenneby J, Folland C et al., 2009. Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(8):22–23.
KosakaY,XieSP,2013.Recentglobal-warminghiatustiedtoequatorialPacificsurfacecooling.Nature,501 (7467):403–407.
LeanJL,2010.Cyclesandtrendsinsolarirradianceandclimate.WileyInterdisciplinaryReviews:Climate change, 1(1):111–122.
Li J, Sun C, Jin F, 2013. NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(20):5497–5502.
Lin X P, Xu L X, Li J P et al., 2016. Research on the global warming hiatus. Advances in Earth Science, 31(10):995 –1000.(in Chinese)
Liu Chao, 2016. Study on influence of the PDO on sea level rise in the Pacific[D]. Qingdao:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.(in Chinese)
Medhaug I, Stolpe M B, Fischer E M et al., 2017. Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’.Nature, 545(7652):41–47.
Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T et al., 2011. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change, 1(7):360–364.
Qin D H, 2014. Climate change science and sustainable development. Progress in Geography, 33(7):874–883.(in Chinese)
RathodM,GuptaM,ShrivastavaAK,2017.Long-termvariationofsolarflareindicesinrelationtosunspot numbers from Solar Cycle 20 to 24. Journal of Pure Applied and Industrial Physics, 7(9):339–347.
Roberts C D, Palmer M D, McNeall D et al., 2015. Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming. Nature Climate Change, 5(4):337–342.
Schmidt G A, Shindell D T, Tsigaridis K, 2014. Reconciling warming trends. Nature Geoscience, 7(3):158–160.
Schneider N, Cornuelle B D, 2005. The forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 18(21):4355–4373.
Seager R, Kushnir Y, Nakamura J et al., 2010. Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies:ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10. Geophysical Research Letters, 37:L14703. doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.
Su J Z, Wen M, Ding Y H et al., 2016. Hiatus of global warming:A review. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 40(6):1143–1153.(in Chinese)
Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Branstator G et al., 2014. Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming.Nature Climate Change, 4(10):911–916.
Vinnikov K Y, Groisman P Y, Lugina K M, 1990. Empirical data on contemporary global climate changes(temperature and precipitation). Journal of Climate, 3(6):662–677.
WangSW,LuoY,ZhaoZCetal.,2014.Pauseforthought.AdvancesinClimateChangeResearch,10(4):303 –306.(in Chinese)
Wen M, Yang S, Kumar A et al., 2009. An analysis of the large-scale climate anomalies associated with the snowstorms affecting China in January 2008. Monthly Weather Review, 137(3):1111–1131.
Yan X H, Boyer T, Trenberth K et al., 2016. The global warming hiatus:Slowdown or redistribution? Earth’s Future, 4(11):472–482.
Yao S L, Huang G, Wu R G et al., 2016. The global warming hiatus:A natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 123(1/2):349–360.
Zhang Z Y, Gong D Y, Guo D et al., 2008. Anomalous winter temperature and precipitation events in southern China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 63(9):899–912.(in Chinese)
Zhao L, Ding R, Moore J C, 2016. The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to2050. Annals of Glaciology, 57(71):223–231.
Zhao S Q, 1983. A new scheme for comprehensive physical regionalization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,38 (1):1–10.(in Chinese)
Zhao Z C, Luo Y, Huang J B, 2016. Debate on global warming “hiatus”. Advances in Climate Change Research,12 (6):571–574.(in Chinese)