摘要
文章旨在合理利用水稻生长季的农业气候资源,提高农业气象防灾减灾能力。利用1961—2015年上海地区10个气象站逐日降水资料,应用降水集中度和降水集中期的概念分析了上海地区单季晚稻生长季水分资源变化规律、特征和分布条件。结果表明:近55年单季晚稻生长季年降水量呈增加趋势,降水线性倾向率是33.6/10 a;大雨和暴雨量级增长趋势明显,平均每10年分别增加33.6 mm和32.0 mm。降水日数变化趋势不明显,与不同降水量级之间存在着明显的反相关;年降水量与降水日数之间变化特征一致,存在同步性(通过0.01显著性水平检验)。降水量变异系数在1995—1997年、2008—2010年和2011—2013年的年份间数值较小,3年平均降水相对变率呈持续上升趋势。PCD变化趋势不显著,降水分布不均匀,PCP主要集中在6月19日—8月7日,均值在7月14日。研究结果为单季晚稻生长季水分资源利用,应对气候变化提供科学参考。
This paper aims to make rational use of agricultural climatic resources in rice crop growing season,and improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in agriculture. The characteristics of spatial and temporal distributions and variations of precipitation resources during single-crop late rice growing season were concentration degree(PCD) and precipitationconcentration period(PCP), based on the daily climatic data of 10 weather stations in Shanghai from 1961 to 2015. The results showed that in the 55 years, the precipitation had an increase tendency, and the linear trend rate of precipitation was 33.6/10 a; the intensity of precipitation of heavy rain and rainstorm increased significantly,the average growth rate of them was 33.6 and 32.0 mm/10 a, respectively. Precipitation days had indistinctive change, but an obvious inverse relationship with different precipitation magnitudes; year precipitation and precipitation days had synchronism over the significant level at 0.01. The variation coefficient of precipitation was smaller in 1995 to 1997, 2008 to 2011 and 2011 to 2013, and the relative change rate of average precipitation in three years showed a rising trend. The variation trend of the precipitation-concentration degree(PCD) was not significant, and the precipitation distribution was uneven, the precipitation-concentration period(PCP) was mainly focused on June 19 to August 7, and the mean was on July 14. These results could provide references for the utilization of the precipitation resources of crop growing season of single-crop late rice and the response to climate change.
引文
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