长江下游地区作物生长季水分资源变化特征及影响分析——以上海地区为例
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摘要
文章旨在合理利用水稻生长季的农业气候资源,提高农业气象防灾减灾能力。利用1961—2015年上海地区10个气象站逐日降水资料,应用降水集中度和降水集中期的概念分析了上海地区单季晚稻生长季水分资源变化规律、特征和分布条件。结果表明:近55年单季晚稻生长季年降水量呈增加趋势,降水线性倾向率是33.6/10 a;大雨和暴雨量级增长趋势明显,平均每10年分别增加33.6 mm和32.0 mm。降水日数变化趋势不明显,与不同降水量级之间存在着明显的反相关;年降水量与降水日数之间变化特征一致,存在同步性(通过0.01显著性水平检验)。降水量变异系数在1995—1997年、2008—2010年和2011—2013年的年份间数值较小,3年平均降水相对变率呈持续上升趋势。PCD变化趋势不显著,降水分布不均匀,PCP主要集中在6月19日—8月7日,均值在7月14日。研究结果为单季晚稻生长季水分资源利用,应对气候变化提供科学参考。
This paper aims to make rational use of agricultural climatic resources in rice crop growing season,and improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in agriculture. The characteristics of spatial and temporal distributions and variations of precipitation resources during single-crop late rice growing season were concentration degree(PCD) and precipitationconcentration period(PCP), based on the daily climatic data of 10 weather stations in Shanghai from 1961 to 2015. The results showed that in the 55 years, the precipitation had an increase tendency, and the linear trend rate of precipitation was 33.6/10 a; the intensity of precipitation of heavy rain and rainstorm increased significantly,the average growth rate of them was 33.6 and 32.0 mm/10 a, respectively. Precipitation days had indistinctive change, but an obvious inverse relationship with different precipitation magnitudes; year precipitation and precipitation days had synchronism over the significant level at 0.01. The variation coefficient of precipitation was smaller in 1995 to 1997, 2008 to 2011 and 2011 to 2013, and the relative change rate of average precipitation in three years showed a rising trend. The variation trend of the precipitation-concentration degree(PCD) was not significant, and the precipitation distribution was uneven, the precipitation-concentration period(PCP) was mainly focused on June 19 to August 7, and the mean was on July 14. These results could provide references for the utilization of the precipitation resources of crop growing season of single-crop late rice and the response to climate change.
This paper aims to make rational use of agricultural climatic resources in rice crop growing season,and improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in agriculture. The characteristics of spatial and temporal distributions and variations of precipitation resources during single-crop late rice growing season were concentration degree(PCD) and precipitationconcentration period(PCP), based on the daily climatic data of 10 weather stations in Shanghai from 1961 to 2015. The results showed that in the 55 years, the precipitation had an increase tendency, and the linear trend rate of precipitation was 33.6/10 a; the intensity of precipitation of heavy rain and rainstorm increased significantly,the average growth rate of them was 33.6 and 32.0 mm/10 a, respectively. Precipitation days had indistinctive change, but an obvious inverse relationship with different precipitation magnitudes; year precipitation and precipitation days had synchronism over the significant level at 0.01. The variation coefficient of precipitation was smaller in 1995 to 1997, 2008 to 2011 and 2011 to 2013, and the relative change rate of average precipitation in three years showed a rising trend. The variation trend of the precipitation-concentration degree(PCD) was not significant, and the precipitation distribution was uneven, the precipitation-concentration period(PCP) was mainly focused on June 19 to August 7, and the mean was on July 14. These results could provide references for the utilization of the precipitation resources of crop growing season of single-crop late rice and the response to climate change.
引文
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[12]赵慧颖,乌秋力,徐桂梅,等.基于GIS的表征水分资源气候要素的推算及空间变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2007,27(5):45-48,113.
[13]吴凯,于静洁.首都圈典型沙区水分资源的变化趋势及其利用[J].地理科学进展,2001,20(3):209-216.
[14]顾品强,金巧玲.气候变暖对上海奉贤地区单季晚稻产量的影响[J].上海农业学报,2009,25(3):115-119.
[15] Zhang L J, Qian Y F. Annual distribution features of the yearly precipition in China and their interannual variation[J].Acta.Meteorologica Sinca,2003,17(2):146-163.
[16]纳丽,李欣,朱晓炜,等.宁夏近50a降水集中度和集中期特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):724-731.
[17]李明秀.衢州地区降水变率与降水变化规律分析[J].浙江气象,2006,27(3):10-12.
[18]叶彩华,栾庆祖,胡宝昆,等.北京农业气候资源变化特征及其对不同种植模式玉米各生育期的影响[J].自然资源学报, 2010,25(8):1350-1364.
[19]张富荣,张玉书,张淑杰,等.辽西朝阳地区近60年玉米生长季降水变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(8):174-178.
[20]方丽娟,陈莉,覃雪,等.近50年黑龙江省作物生长季农业气候资源的变化分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(3):340-347.
[2]秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,等.气候变化科学的最新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2):63-73.
[3]张家诚.气候与人类[M].郑州:河南科技出版社,1998.
[4] Rosenzweig C, Hillel D. Climate Change and the Global Harvest:Potential Impacts on the Greenhouse Effect on Agricul-ture[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1992.
[5]王馥棠.近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(6):755-766.
[6]李军,高苹,陈艳春,等.华东地区耕作制度对积温变化的响应[J].生态学杂志,2008,27(3):361-368.
[7]陈书涛,王让会,许遐祯,等.气温及降水变化对江苏省典型农业区冬小麦、水稻生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(2):235-239.
[8]肖风劲,张海东,王春乙,等.气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):327-331.
[9]周丽英,杨凯.上海降水百年变化趋势及其城郊的差异[J].地理学报,2001,56(4):467-476.
[10]陶涛,信昆仑,刘遂庆.气候变化下21世纪上海长江口地区降水变化趋势分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,17(2):223-226.
[11]徐敏,徐经纬,徐乐,等.水稻农业气候资源变化特征及影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(18):142-150.
[12]赵慧颖,乌秋力,徐桂梅,等.基于GIS的表征水分资源气候要素的推算及空间变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2007,27(5):45-48,113.
[13]吴凯,于静洁.首都圈典型沙区水分资源的变化趋势及其利用[J].地理科学进展,2001,20(3):209-216.
[14]顾品强,金巧玲.气候变暖对上海奉贤地区单季晚稻产量的影响[J].上海农业学报,2009,25(3):115-119.
[15] Zhang L J, Qian Y F. Annual distribution features of the yearly precipition in China and their interannual variation[J].Acta.Meteorologica Sinca,2003,17(2):146-163.
[16]纳丽,李欣,朱晓炜,等.宁夏近50a降水集中度和集中期特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):724-731.
[17]李明秀.衢州地区降水变率与降水变化规律分析[J].浙江气象,2006,27(3):10-12.
[18]叶彩华,栾庆祖,胡宝昆,等.北京农业气候资源变化特征及其对不同种植模式玉米各生育期的影响[J].自然资源学报, 2010,25(8):1350-1364.
[19]张富荣,张玉书,张淑杰,等.辽西朝阳地区近60年玉米生长季降水变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(8):174-178.
[20]方丽娟,陈莉,覃雪,等.近50年黑龙江省作物生长季农业气候资源的变化分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(3):340-347.